The Stockdale Paradox

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Alaskajohn

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I few months ago I started a thread asking for good books about individuals or people who have prevailed against overwhelming odds and that resulted in some great reads for me the past few months. I had forgotten about the lessons that Admiral Stockdale offered from his time as a POW during the Vietnam war. He was the most senior POW at Hanoi Hilton and he paid the price for this. I read this book as a new butter bar when in the Army back in 1984 when the book was published. Certainly a great book for preppers and its along the line of what I was looking for.


I stumbled across an article today that reflected on Admiral Stockdale, jarring my memory, and thought I would share this link:

Jim Collins - Concepts - The Stockdale Paradox

A little snippet from the article:

“I never lost faith in the end of the story,” he said, when I asked him. “I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not trade.”

I didn’t say anything for many minutes, and we continued the slow walk toward the faculty club, Stockdale limping and arc-swinging his stiff leg that had never fully recovered from repeated torture. Finally, after about a hundred meters of silence, I asked, “Who didn’t make it out?”

“Oh, that’s easy,” he said. “The optimists.”

“The optimists? I don’t understand,” I said, now completely confused, given what he’d said a hundred meters earlier.

“The optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart.”

Another long pause, and more walking. Then he turned to me and said, “This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”

To this day, I carry a mental image of Stockdale admonishing the optimists: “We’re not getting out by Christmas; deal with it!”


We need to embrace the coming suck, deal with it, AND have the faith that we are going to prevail. I think I needed to be reminded about the paradox. You need both to survive.

I think we are at the stage where we need to heed his advice.
 
Be aware that when you are less optimistic than most of those around you - even where you maintain (and express) the personal determination to survive whatever is coming - you will be accused of "being too negative".

In my experience, people are quick to shoot the messenger - if that is what it takes to side-step the mental challenge that is posed by the message.

The people, for whom the crisis poses the greatest challenge, will be the ones who fight the hardest to silence the messenger.

You would think that the last 18 months of proof that many of the risks that survivalists have prepared for can/do actually happen, would have made the process of discussing real preparedness easier. In my recent experience, the opposite has been the case.

Those whose situation really is becoming precarious are becoming more aggressive in their efforts to reject the idea that things are getting worse at an accelerating rate and/or that they can do anything about it.
 
A companion to Stockdale's story is "The Passing of the Night" by Robinson Risner. He was there at Hanoi with Stockdale. His book also mentioned the mental aspects of captivity including months of solitary confinement and physical torture. It's well worth a read...

There have been several.

The one I read was by Capt Gerald Coffey
 
Be aware that when you are less optimistic than most of those around you - even where you maintain (and express) the personal determination to survive whatever is coming - you will be accused of "being too negative".

Its even worse....you can actually be accused of being a threat. Some people will translate "If you do this, someone may kill you" to "If you do this, I will personally kill you".


Those whose situation really is becoming precarious are becoming more aggressive in their efforts to reject the idea that things are getting worse at an accelerating rate and/or that they can do anything about it.

Its really fascinating, and seems to be going on at an accelerated rate. Things are happening so fast I'm starting to fall behind the curve and realizing as bad as I think they are, they probably are even worse and I just don't have enough hours in the day to catch up on it all.
 
Here Here @Aerindel and @Bacpacker every day I try to do a little something to get prepared for the challenges to come. I have family who say, you're over the top and it will never get that bad. Then there are others who say, I need to do something and I will start tomorrow. I want to be optimistic, I know that there will be good days to be enjoyed, but I also know that there hare hard days ahead.

The hard part for me is the balance between doing enough to feel productive and enjoying the moment. I find great joy in watching nature, wildlife, the flowers, children, the sunrise and the sunset.
 
Be aware that when you are less optimistic than most of those around you - even where you maintain (and express) the personal determination to survive whatever is coming - you will be accused of "being too negative".
Nothing as serious as what this discussion is about, but along the lines of, "Oh, don't say that," when speaking of what is going on. Many just cannot handle the truth, no matter the topic.
 
Its really fascinating, and seems to be going on at an accelerated rate. Things are happening so fast I'm starting to fall behind the curve and realizing as bad as I think they are, they probably are even worse and I just don't have enough hours in the day to catch up on it all.

Spot on. Things are truly degenerating/accelerating at a rate that is frightening. I think there is purposeful disinformation (The correct term is information operations, or IO) designed to mask, distract, shape and divide while shielding the true nature of what is playing out. I am at the point where I have a healthy suspicion of everything I read and witness. It takes time and effort to evaluate, detect trends, and connecting dots.

Back to the stockdale paradox:

I know I am going to prevail and win this fight fully knowing that we will all suffer tremendously for an unknown duration. For me, even if I fall, I have a God that has already won my ultimate salvation for whatever this world throws at me.
 
It takes time and effort to evaluate, detect trends, and connecting dots.

It does. And spring is not a time when I have much extra time for reading...as anyone in the west or north knows...this time of year is always somewhat of a SHTF in trying to clear away winter and get everything ramped up to take advantage of summer while it lasts.
 

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