"CME"..........newer study information.

[Sourdough]

Extreme‐event magnetic storm probabilities derived from rank statistics of historical Dst intensities for solar cycles 14‐24 - Love - - Space Weather - Wiley Online Library

 

[SheepDog]

That is an interesting study and hypothesis for a community of science that doesn't yet understand how the sun works. It is a bit like predicting the likelihood of earthquakes based on historical data. Using 3 different models and expecting a modicum of accuracy is at best sloppy science. Computers models are mostly inaccurate and deceiving. The worst part is using data collected over 0.00000003 parts of the life of the sun. No one in their right mind would consider the resulting information valid for anything more than a conversational purpose.

 

[Alaskajohn]

Thanks Sourdough. Us northerners are much more susceptible to this, which is why a bunch of my focus is on being able to thrive without electricity.