Making a "Quantum" shift in my Prepping "MATRIX".

[Sourdough]

MATRIX........an environment or material in which something develops; a surrounding medium or structure.

It is my opinion and observation that preppers start and maintain their prepping from what they can grasp. To use the onion analogy, they start from the small center, and gradually work out, ever expanding the layers of their prepping.
This works fine till the prepper gets to "some" yet to be discovered point in their prepping.
When working from the center out it appears there are infinite layers through which the prepper can advance. The "concept" of reaching some outer layer is a kind of motivation or goal. Even as the goal is obscure at best. And there is in fact no need of a "matrix" or "surrounding structure" in which to hold the prepping effort/goal.

At some point I recently realized........I now need a "surrounding structure" to encompass the existing layers, so as to allow forward decisions. Now it is far less about prepping, and the priority has shifted to closely monitoring of that which is outside of the onion.

 

[Aerindel]

That is a common analogy but I've found there are prepper "glass ceilings" where you can get stuck and not actually make any further progress in small increments until you break through to a next 'class' of preps With something big.

 

[Neb]

That is a common analogy but I've found there are prepper "glass ceilings" where you can get stuck and not actually make any further progress in small increments until you break through to a next 'class' of preps With something big.

I can relate to that.

There are number of areas where are progressing there are some plans on hold waiting for the projects to be funded or finding time to work on those things.

I tell myself "God willing, we will get to that eventually."

Ben

 

[Aerindel]

On that 'other' forum it was something I saw all the time.

Urban or suburban preppers who had worked there way slowly from a 24 hour bag to the two week level, but just kept finding that they where STILL really stuck at a two week level even though they kept spending money.

But there are multiple glass ceilings out there, we all hit them. I'm at one right now. I'm about as far as I can get on my own. For a long time it was just a matter of the next step, and the one after that, and the one after that. But now there are no clear next steps with obvious rewards. There is only so much 'stuff' or skills, one family can take advantage of.

I need to bring more people in. But to do that, I need to have housing for them, which means I need to expand the doomstead...but I'm building it by myself...and lumber prices are insane....and....I don't really have a social network anymore....and I don't really want one. Several people WANT to come in....but I have trust issues, for obvious reasons.

I need to figure out if I'm going to put in the work to essentially, start a militia, or if I'm just going to 'stop' at this point and accept that this is about as good as it gets for me.

 

[Sourdough]

What I was saying in the original post, may have been so confusing and convoluted that even I am not sure what I said.

Reduced to the basic, it is this. I have reached a point where I am comfortable with my preps. And it is now time to shift my "driven" obsessive focus from the "prepping" to intensely focusing on world and Alaska events that could present risks.

The one thing I have learned in 52 years of living with "monsters" is the importance of constant risk assessment. Having the tools is one thing, but it is "in the end" who has the few seconds, of advanced awareness. (Them or Me)

I would be interested in any feedback from those with military "Boots in the Field" as to how they are trained or prepared along this line.

 

[Neb]

On that 'other' forum it was something I saw all the time.

Urban or suburban preppers who had worked there way slowly from a 24 hour bag to the two week level, but just kept finding that they where STILL really stuck at a two week level even though they kept spending money.

But there are multiple glass ceilings out there, we all hit them. I'm at one right now. I'm about as far as I can get on my own. For a long time it was just a matter of the next step, and the one after that, and the one after that. But now there are no clear next steps with obvious rewards. There is only so much 'stuff' or skills, one family can take advantage of.

I need to bring more people in. But to do that, I need to have housing for them, which means I need to expand the doomstead...but I'm building it by myself...and lumber prices are insane....and....I don't really have a social network anymore....and I don't really want one. Several people WANT to come in....but I have trust issues, for obvious reasons.

I need to figure out if I'm going to put in the work to essentially, start a militia, or if I'm just going to 'stop' at this point and accept that this is about as good as it gets for me.

The price of copper wire is an issue for me.

My solar panels and wind turbine are planned to be installed on my detached garage. The batteries charge controller and inverter will be installed in the adjascent shed. I will need 75-100 fett of heavy gage wire capable of providing 200 amp service to the garage or route the backup power to the transfer switch next to the service entrance.

With the move to electric vehicles and the infastructure bill including plans to upgrade the grid, I don't see the price of wire dropping soon or in my life time. Looking at the positive side, may be investment in copper mining stocks will pay off.

Ben

 

[Alaskajohn]

What I was saying in the original post, may have been so confusing and convoluted that even I am not sure what I said.

Reduced to the basic, it is this. I have reached a point where I am comfortable with my preps. And it is now time to shift my "driven" obsessive focus from the "prepping" to intensely focusing on world and Alaska events that could present risks.

The one thing I have learned in 52 years of living with "monsters" is the importance of constant risk assessment. Having the tools is one thing, but it is "in the end" who has the few seconds, of advanced awareness. (Them or Me)

I would be interested in any feedback from those with military "Boots in the Field" as to how they are trained or prepared along this line.

SWOT analysis. I do one every year about October. That is really a private sector strategic planning tool, and it’s similar to how the military approaches this. Busy with chores, so I will come back and add more.

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. SWOT

 

[Sourdough]

swot analysis worksheet - Bing

Many are "FREE".

 

[UrbanHunter]

I am a little lost on @Sourdough 's premise, is he saying that now he is more concerned about what is going around us than he is about having his house in order?

I know my big concern is about keeping what I have to myself. I assume that eventually the "they's" will start trying to gather supplies that have been hoarded by prepper types and my thinking is I don't know anyone who does that and I am not sharing any information that would link me to those people... The THEY'S really make me nervous....

 

[Sourdough]

I am a little lost on @Sourdough 's premise, is he saying that now he is more concerned about what is going around us than he is about having his house in order?

This is where I am.........and not enrolling others.
I have been prepping and being trained in "Prepping for Survival" longer then many have been alive. I am vividly aware that I am writing the final chapter of my life. At this point.......my greatest risks are in being blindsided by outside events.

An example is paying closer attention to world events, not from a curiosity interest, but assessing how they might rapidly escalate on a manner that could "Directly" effect me. The last three or four days events with Iran and the World and especially Israel. (My user name on S.B. is 6.8 SPC)
"GAME-ON".......Was the Gauntlet just thrown "Down"...are the opposing sides "WAR" ready | Survivalist Forum (survivalistboards.com)

 

[Aerindel]

An example is paying closer attention to world events, not from a curiosity interest, but assessing how they might rapidly escalate on a manner that could "Directly" effect me. The last three or four days events with Iran and the World and especially Israel. (My user name on S.B. is 6.8 SPC)

This was sorta of where I started prepping at. Oddly, I've been moving in the other direction. I find the more ready I am, the less I follow the day to day 'political weather' of the world. After watching it closely for a a couple decades, its seems like really it just evens out to a general downward trend. 'Events' seem to matter a lot less than I once thought they did.

 

[dademoss]

"GAME-ON".......Was the Gauntlet just thrown "Down"...are the opposing sides "WAR" ready | Survivalist Forum (survivalistboards.com)

Well I'll be dipped, my logon still works there.

 

[Hardcalibres]

This was sorta of where I started prepping at. Oddly, I've been moving in the other direction. I find the more ready I am, the less I follow the day to day 'political weather' of the world. After watching it closely for a a couple decades, its seems like really it just evens out to a general downward trend. 'Events' seem to matter a lot less than I once thought they did.

Agreed.

As I have posted before, I am prepared to a stage where I look at day to day events with what medical people call "clinical detachment".

 

[Amish Heart]

Phil Collins said it well, "It's always the same, it's just a shame, that's all."

 

[Alaskajohn]

swot analysis worksheet - Bing

Many are "FREE".

In the military we had terms like “Intelligence prep of the battlefield” or “threat analysis“ which are different things with the same intent: a systematic and deliberate activity to understand the environment you are in and how to best deal with it. There are other terms, but they all have the same concept, a deliberate and systemic way to analyze the crap you are in. Some links from a search pasted below.
Intelligence Prep of the Battlefield
Military Threat Analysis

A SWOT analysis is the same thing, a systemic way to analyze the world, makes sense of it, take advantage of certain things, figure out what vulnerabilities you have, and what you need to fix. And a bunch of other applications. I do this every October as it is a natural break in the rhythm of things on my little hobby farm or homestead. The snow is flying and all the summer projects are done, so there is some free time to reflect on what you’ve accomplished in the seasonal cycle and to get busy with planning for the next cycle. And I actually have some free time to think and study.

SWOT. Strengths and Weaknesses are internal and Opportunities and Threats are external. You basically spend time listening what your strengths and weaknesses are and try to nail them down to your top 10 for each. Difficult for one person to do about themselves, so one must be brutally honest. Since opportunities and threats are external, this takes disciplined research and I typically spend a good month doing an analysis of trends for both. Again, I try to list the top 10 of each.

The next part takes a lot of time. You have to take your strengths and weakness and compare them to your opportunities and threats, and for your opportunities and threats, you need to compare them to your strengths and weaknesses.

After doing all of this you will have a pretty long list of things you need to deal with, so this is when you need to factor in probability and severity with your available time and resources. By the end of October after spending most of the month doing the exercises and research, then I figure out what I will devote priority effort towards for the next 12 months and adjust my long range plans. This is when I order books to study and fix weaknesss, or to learn a skill for an upcoming priority project.

I do a lot of this with my consulting work, so it is natural for me, and it also borrows from what I learned in the military on being disciplined and systematic in how you approach prepping. The biggest challenge doing this as a single person is our natural bias and blind spots. This is truly limiting. Some of the value of forums like this is simply being exposed to other ideas, and there are other good websites that deal with ongoing threat detection. I am not sure if it was on this forum or another one, but I’ve participated in threads specifically about threat detection and analysis. There are threat detection websites out there, but you get a lot of noise. There are some many threats out their it is a bit of a challenge to limit and properly prioritize your top 10.

You know you are making progress in your SWOT analysis, if after you go through the exercise and you suddenly realize what you thought was a strength was a fallacy, etc. If your top 10 lists don’t change pretty significantly after the first cycle, it’s a pretty good indicator of bias in action and it’s faulty. With OPSEC, it’s tough to have a trusted friend to be brutally honest about what our strengths and weaknesses are, and their is also benefit in having someone in brainstorming opportunities in particular.

I hope this makes sense. I’ll probably come back and correct the typos due being exhausted from chores and a good glass of wine.

 

[UrbanHunter]

The biggest challenge doing this as a single person is our natural bias and blind spots. This is truly limiting. Some of the value of forums like this is simply being exposed to other ideas, and there are other good websites that deal with ongoing threat detection. I am not sure if it was on this forum or another one, but I’ve participated in threads specifically about threat detection and analysis. There are threat detection websites out there, but you get a lot of noise.

I agree 100%, I personally believe that being able to honestly assess your own situation is very important and our personal biases can limit our ability to see the forest for the trees.... But, I find the many different perspectives expressed on this site expose some of my weaknesses and a weakness exposed can be addressed. My personal prepps are not what I would call 100%, but thanks to the kind folks here I have a good idea of what I need to do....

I am a big believer in SWOT as an assessment tool, but you have to be willing to use the information you gain to act in a deliberate, logical, and effective manner.

I have learned that there are lots of people who "talk" about this or that, but when it comes down to doing the hard work to actually DO something: they are just too busy watching the TV or playing games...

Personal Example:
30 years ago or so we had a lot of hard red wheat and felt prepared; till we realized that we didn't have a grinder or the other stuff that goes into making bread. So we got the grinder and stuff, then we made some bread using our red wheat... I found it bitter and disgusting. Then we did some reading and discovered that the hard white wheat (which was more expensive) might be more in line with our taste. So we bought 1 container of the white wheat and made bread, we liked it. So over the next 2 years we swapped out all of our Red Wheat replacing it with White....

Today, we still do our SWOT analysis looking for what has changed and what we can do to improve our preparedness level. Then we try to address them, just a few hours each day, but on some days we can see progress.