SKIP You, SKIP Urban dwellers, What would those near you do post SHTF. Say with-in 50 miles do.

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Sourdough

"Eleutheromaniac"
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Mar 17, 2018
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6,100
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In a cabin, on a mountain, in "Wilderness" Alaska.
Please SKIP the canned answers everyone has learned to be acceptable and would be awarded an A+ grade.

Honestly think and look at what those humans with-in 50 miles of you will do post SHTF. If you really are willing to look, you might be surprised.

Here are two posts I made in a different thread:

I live in a village with ten other humans. If the SHTF everyone but me and possibly one other would leave quickly. The village is in a valley ten miles long, inside a seven-million-acre National Forest. No one (or darn few) would come here looking for survival needs.

I figure if the SHTF 25% to 35% of Alaskans would haul'ass to America in first 6 months. Some, a very few would come here post SHTF, but their learning curve would be God awful steep. I would guess that 18 to 30 months post SHTF, the population in Alaska would 35% to 45% of current population.. (All the above is extremely conservative in my opinion) 38 years as a "Professional Hunter" I know most new'bee's to Alaska would wish they never came post SHTF.

I assume those who came to Alaska "post" SHTF would be thinking, live off the land.
 
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At my current location, anyone with a boat and a fishing pole could rely on the ocean for food. Some think they will hunt but the deer population will diminish in short order. Fish, crab, shrimp, abalone, clams (yuck), muscles, +++.
 
"Some" people in Alaska would go to shipping ports (Seward, Anchorage, Valdez) where "MAYBE" the government "MIGHT" be shipping a very small amount of food, and "MAYBE" back haul Alaskans to America. But this is total speculation on my part. Government would try to extract Government employees, and "Maybe" reduce military base population.
 
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At my current location, anyone with a boat and a fishing pole could rely on the ocean for food. Some think they will hunt but the deer population will diminish in short order. Fish, crab, shrimp, abalone, clams (yuck), muscles, +++.
yep....get fuel to biggest boat and get to hauling in fish and get all hands on deck at cannery on the slime line and get to canning fish. if the cannery wont work for whatever reason then get to salting/curing and drying...this is for benefit of all.

if above is not possible then individually get to doing what you said. once fuel runs out then old school boat set up and kayak will be highly sought after items.

i was ridiculed over an answer at another place when i mentioned rationing fuel and they failed to realize many remote spots have fuel storage. not long afterwards i seen interview that had nothing to do with fuel etc. in remote spot. what do i see in background but multiple storage tanks in 50,000 gallon or more sizes filled with fuel. if that fuel usually last 6 months then it could be rationed out for way way longer and used to keep village alive.

the smaller fuel efficient boats will be used more too.

also having a super insulated home will be worth it weight in gold.takes less to heat it and despite what several think then at that point a freighter pack frame to hump firewood in with be a gold star item.

just as example of how things can go bad sorta fast. a old video from early in plague we have a guy in new zealand was home bound using chainsaw and guess what broke? the dang oil cap ! oh all the 'bad luck'. no way to get a new one and it was in multiple pieces beyond repair. he and family member then broke out old crosscut saws and kept working. it was start of winter and it was his usual time to cut firewood.

what others will do is pure guess...like starting a war or battle yor plans wont survive first contact and yo will have to adjust and adapt.

new zealand like alaska is at the end of the 'big service road' for getting many 'outside items'. so one important thing is what is made,produced,put together within these 50 miles..but more realistically most will live a 3-5 mile life from homebase.

these remote spots will be the last to get service restored IF restored they will be. looking at modern countries that collapsed since ww2.most held togther in some form or fashion and someone always retained power from households,larger family groups,tribes and clans,to villages and cities and counties.best number to deal with is no more than dunbars number if possible.

sidenote..i know a guy that went to ussr early in collapse. many spoke of no food but that wasnt true. he took pictures of all the food in storage. out in country many had food. the big reason food didnt make it was distribution in form of big trucks. the govt owned and operated most if not all of shipping so it just stopped for various reasons.

i believe anything short of nuclear war many people will get up and try everything to do whatever to keep working and doing. why do i say this...history shows they have. people fail to relate the proportion of 'jobs' that keep things rolling is not entire population of a country or region.

more ramblings later....
 
as of late with talk of new zealand in one thread and my island thread i been looking that direction. well i stumbled across some information that was recorded in real time as this plague and lock downs happened. right from start people lost everything..i.e. all hunting and fishing was shut down. guides who were about to hunt the red stag roar lost all income. even regular hunters couldnt get out and hunt or fishermen.they did allow commercial fishermen to continue so they could feed the population.

people got caught with their pants down but many stepped up to bat and changed instantly and started producing. like i mentioned here in my area people had a few critters and gardens and thats changed drastically here people have seriously expanded.early on guy says i feel sorry for folks who dont own bit of land right now as they are having it far worse than us. because we can grow veg and hunt a few rabbits and such inside our own land borders and have our various livestock. this guy had bits and bobs of livestock but instantly he expanded EVERYTHING ! hatching duck and chicken eggs as just one thing.

one thing that happened was people that were allowed out and about went above and beyond for some by dropping off items like frozen fish from commercial boats and butcher shops. they just drove by homes and dropped in driveways. this is prime example of knowing others and having built relationships with others. also it seems as many looked towards neighbors often to see if they needed anything especially the elderly and disabled or ones who didnt have a bit of land of their own to get outside and grow stuff.

its pretty interesting going back and seeing what was going on in early 2020 and as time marched on and to see the various things that happened as from what i understand NZ had some of the most strict lock down and penalties on planet.

the guy i am talking about has a walk in cooler and once restrictions lifted for a bit to allow people to hunt and fish. he filled that thing with boar,feral goats,stag and more. from what i see the restrictions came and went and various degrees or levels of lockdown.

i know what i am looking at is very narrow snap shot from starting in early 2020 and from one persons experience but its all we have to look at and possibly learn from to see results of, call it minor or major shtf depending on ones perspective.

bottomline you can be a lazy ass and do nothing or be a worker and produce. owning a bit of land it allowed folks who work hard to continue to 'work' and provide for themselves and a few around them.


edit to add..in late 1940's i know of a family group that up and moved to another area? why because their mother wanted hot running water! up on mtn behind this homestead there was a hotspring and it was piped top home. the parents and all brothers had to pool all resources to be able to purchase this place. just an example of a 'tribe' being better off collectively than out alone.he said it was best decision ever and family was way better off at the new place than at the older places they all had...plus..less big ornery bear to deal with constantly.
 
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What I am "Wondering" is wherever you are, what in your opinion will those humans with-in 50 miles of you do. Will most stay but or leave your area.

And maybe if they leave where would they go and why.

For many years I assumed that substantial hoards from Anchorage (largest city in Alaska) would come here. Then a few years ago I started thinking why would they. What is here that would attract them, seven million acres of wilderness, why come here.....??? No stores, no gas station, no well know popular fishing spots.
 
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What I am "Wondering" is wherever you are, what in your opinion will those humans with-in 50 miles of you do. Will most stay but or leave your area.

And maybe if they leave where would they go and why.
they wont leave. one reason is they are multi generational land owners and most of time its been handed down through family as one chunk and not divided up among heirs...another reason to have a will to make sure a person wishes happen.people here often..at least older generation viewed land very differently and land went to most responsible of all children. i even see 'bad adult children' not inherit land. i seen a 550 acre tract go to a nephew instead of kids.

when you have land,livestock and huge farm fleet of equipment you just dont walk away from it. it might not be all sunshine and perfume but you will keep a roof over your head and food in stomach. plus if many leave...they would have to et up again or start paying rent or whatever in a new spot..it take less effort to change a few things and be better off staying put.

go stand in fema camp food line for possible watered down soup or butcher a steer or heifer or sheep and eat very well...no brainer for me.
 
The people in our area are amish farmers. I suspect they'd stay unless they couldn't farm anymore.
farmers are going to farm if at all possible...there..like here...its in their bones to be 'doers'.

even just folks with land,5 gallon of gas and tiller and handtools can produce a huge amount of food.
 
Wondering why just you and your neighbor would stay? Do your other "neighbors" rely on shipments for food and supplies?
No one here stores more than a few weeks of food, one or two might have three or four weeks of food. People don't think SHTF. They drive to Anchorage every 10 or 14 days to grocery shop. So, if SHTF they will use up what food they have and leave if they can leave. The only reason people here have more than a week's food is the roads are often closed for two or three days.
 
A fifty mile radius from me would bring about 2 million people into the equation. I don't see anybody leaving, at least not enough to change the outcome. I expect it could be total choas depending on the SHTF event.

If the event is localized not much will happen. If it is a world wide catastrophe all bets are off. IMHO this link gives an interesting perspective on SHTF, and how most scenarios are localized. When it happens to you it is really bad. To the rest of the country and the rest of the world is is just another news story. It really doesn't affect them. A good example would be the recent tornados in Mississippi. For those people affected, it is TEOTWAWKI. The rest of us pray for them, and thank God it wasn't us. BTW, Snappy, I hope you and yours are O.K. Was the tornado close to you?

 
Thanks @Morgan101 for that post, it was a great watch. As I was watching it I had to think about how at risk I am?

I live in a blue collar community but am on the edge of communities of over 8 million people. Most of the middle class people around here have white collar jobs and few usable skills. There are lots of poor living on welfare or doing jobs like lawn services, those jobs would dry up in a SHTF event. Few people own their homes, most are renters and there are many apartment complexes with no space to grow even a small garden.

A SHTF event lasting even a couple of months would put a lot of people moving. During COVID, I saw people traveling between 25 and 50 miles to get to grocery stores that had food and the lines were long (I stood in a 1 1/2 hour line to go into a grocery store that was near empty, once. I was thankful that I could wait out the shortages by eating my older food stores and avoid going into that mess at all. I have visited the heart of one of the cities near me, I would say that post COVID only about 20% of the restaurants and small grocery type stores remain and I see signs that many of those left will be closing soon. I have to ask, has the migration away from the cities begun? (Would need more data from other cities to make a blanket statement).

There are areas around here with wildlife, but I have seen it only takes 1 season of heavy hunting to reduce the numbers below a usable level and it takes a decade or more for them to recover, so hunting is not a long term answer.

There are lots of scenarios that could create more regional disasters and I see government action actually pushing more people into higher risk situations.

There is lots more to think about, I would encourage everyone to watch the video in @Morgan101 's post.
 
What I am "Wondering" is wherever you are, what in your opinion will those humans with-in 50 miles of you do. Will most stay but or leave your area.

And maybe if they leave where would they go and why.

For many years I assumed that substantial hoards from Anchorage (largest city in Alaska) would come here. Then a few years ago I started thinking why would they. What is here that would attract them, seven million acres of wilderness, why come here.....??? No stores, no gas station, no well know popular fishing spots.
Our society has grown into such a dependency that many would just lie down and die rather than get up and make attempts to seek help. People want hand outs or hand ups. They have become helpless. I believe that in some areas, people will raid and invade people's homes and property if they think they can get food there. Even in rural areas, people have become complacent about knowing how to help themselves, without that meaning taking from others. People with starving children will act in ways they never did before.

Remember the story of my grandparents neighbors coming over to their place during the great depression because they had no food and grandparents only had a few shriveled up potatoes that they planned to make into soup? Grandparents were embarrassed about what they had and never offered to make the soup and to share it. What a conundrum.
 
one example in new testament of bible where paul is asking for food stuff and not money from either people in turkey or greece. during that time there was a huge famine going on middle east but wasnt in other areas. it was very localized.

also right after that when most disciples and jesus were dead and rome decided to finish the uprising once and for all and they rolled in with extra forces and leveled the place...everything and i mean everything...as example there was a world famous orchard of dates and it was over 100 miles long and was between 8-15 miles wide and they cut the entire orchard down. ships were sent from all over the world for these dates because of their taste and more.

another example is a bunch of a-holes decided to kill all the buffalo to subdue a group of people...yall know the story...what a true shtf in both of these.
 
I currently live on an island. Few will have the resources, plane or large boat, to go to Bellingham or Seattle. If they went deeper into Alaska they would be in a similar situation. Bellingham would give them access to the Lower 48. Seattle is too dangerous now. Most people are better off here.
 
Bellingham would give them access to the Lower 48. Seattle is too dangerous now. Most people are better off here.
"How" as compared to Anchorage.....???

I sure see where you are as better then Anchorage or lower 48 as far as survival. But what about Anchorage...?? Do you see most staying, or if safe passage to lower 48 would they choose that. To me Anchorage would be a horrific place to survive a three years SHTF or total economic collapse.

Wherever people are, I think they will desire to be near family for safety.
 
NE WA/Idaho area, I think most would stay put and the city that is within 50 miles --> Spokane, CdA, would see looting, burning etc.
I don't know my neighbors that well, but to the south of us is a cattle farm, and most are farmers. There is a gun range 2 properties over. The family (3 young kids) that owns the property we have an easement through are entitled millennials though. They don't know what we do for a living, and we've tried to stay quiet about what we've done back here. I'm hoping they would move on to one of their parents. It's not like we could house people here unless they have their own RV or something.
 
"How" as compared to Anchorage.....???

I sure see where you are as better then Anchorage or lower 48 as far as survival. But what about Anchorage...?? Do you see most staying, or if safe passage to lower 48 would they choose that. To me Anchorage would be a horrific place to survive a three years SHTF or total economic collapse.

Wherever people are, I think they will desire to be near family for safety.
I have the capability of putting 45 gallons of gas on my front bumper and another 45 gallons on my rear bumper. The jeep holds around 25 gallons. I doubt that is enough to get through Canada. If the planes are flying then, yes you could get out. You would need a place to go. IF you had friends, really good friends, or family and IF they had good resources then you might have an option.

When the PFD came out people would get on the Alaska Ferry in Seattle with a one way ticket to Ketchikan, an island, with plans to hitchhike to Anchorage. I gave one of these guys a ride to mile 16 north of town. The road ends at mile 18. I could not convince him that he was wasting his effort. Their first question was, "Where can I pick up my $1000?" It takes about 2 years to qualify for a PFD. Some people will leave Alaska without doing their homework. Their body will be somebody else's problem.

My Palmer home is I the middle of the bread basket of Alaska. I've purchased a dump truck of top soil for raised beds. Some of it has been placed. The rest will be when I get home. It is a great area to garden. I imagine that you could grow a garden also. I just placed a large order of barley for both my Ketchikan location and my Palmer home.
 
A 50 mile radius of me includes about 75 thousand people. Also a stretch of the missouri river, three lakes on said river and some farm land.
So if 80% of the people have nothing to do with dirt or animals it still will be a mess.
It would be dyin time again.
 
Within 50 miles of me is a “community” of about 200 folks spread out for about 20 miles along the only road in the area the size of most eastern states. The majority of this population are aging original homesteaders who settled this part of Alaska in the 1970. Hearty and capable souls, but they are literally a dying breed due to age. Nobody is moving out here so each year the population drops. SHTF? A good number might try to stay, but likely most will leave due to the challenge of old age living in this environment.
 
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Bouncing off various comments and morphing from there...

being in southeast alaska and coastal alaska...in a shtf i would never ever leave. why? its a major fishery feeding the world.

if a person can get out at all they will feed themselves from the sea. like caribou said deer in islands might be killed off but i doubt it.

just as example..in 2021..alaska produced 234 million salmon commercially and that was a total poundage of 858.5 million pounds of salmon if the population of entire state couldnt live on that they need to go ...well i dont know what...they are lost folks.this is reliant on fuel for boats but theres ways around that a bit and small villages with less population would be the trick. this fish poundage doesnt even take in all the other fish species like halibut and more. i have lived on dolly varden trout from coast myself and was never a problem getting multiple fish at any time to sit down and eat.

that such a huge resource to leave from...i couldnt and wouldnt do it.

one thing about fuel.theres old boat design you can row and it was designed to pull longlines over the side and not get swamped.it was actually designed for halibut fishing in north atlantic to my understanding. i have seen them in old paintings and talked about on an old sailing ship.

also i never seen them but way back when engines first came available there was little boats with these single piston engines mounted in center of boat and had a drive shaft through bottom of boat to the propeller. wayne short wrote about them in his books.fuel efficiency would be the name of the game.also recently seen a guy mentioning in new zealand during these lock downs of everything how economy of fuel was so important and he was using a new 6h.p. mercury on little aluminum boat to fish in bay and along coast on nice days. he mentioned how the fuel had gotten so high in 2022 too there.
 
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The whole what would happen, question depends on what brought about the end of the world.
People will move toward their comfort zone City raised will mostly think that that is where to be in an emergency,
If the electric grid fails, the people who don't plan ahead would probably migrate to where their groceries come from,
in the winter if the county and province don't plow the roads, they will soon become impassible, and If we have to plow for farm ranch stuff, chances are it will be on "our land" IE not public roads. the rest I won't mention ,opsec, but the people who work cooperatively here now usually paying as we go to keep things balanced, will continue with out the "outside world" just on a subsistence scale.
 
most people even out here in the countryside would starve within a week to ten days if the store deliveries stop.
not many people over here have larders, people would think you strange if you say you had one, people have been programmed to think a certain way, a city way, and any other way is old fashioned.
 
In a country this small, 50 miles is big, taking in a wide variant or rural /towns. The country is only about 170 miles wide.
I think most in our area would stay put, because they are born and bred here, and are very family orientated, but would perish- similar to what Lonewolf states above - they are programmed in a certain way.
My sister lives in a suburb and would head to my Fathers, as he is prepped and has space in the country.
I would stay put - I'm not as rural as I like, but I'd rather die with my feet on hometurf surrounded by where we've been happy. And the children know wherever they are, get home if you can. But I always think of the mother in 'The Road' in these scenarios - to what extremes would I want to live in? she walks out. Is there any point in just surviving with no hope. Can you imagine the government we would get after it?
 
Reluctant confession. I started this thread, and it died. So,I had ignored viewing it. It somehow got life and has become an educational thread. "THANKS to EVERYONE".
 
In a country this small, 50 miles is big, taking in a wide variant or rural /towns. The country is only about 170 miles wide.
I think most in our area would stay put, because they are born and bred here, and are very family orientated, but would perish- similar to what Lonewolf states above - they are programmed in a certain way.
My sister lives in a suburb and would head to my Fathers, as he is prepped and has space in the country.
I would stay put - I'm not as rural as I like, but I'd rather die with my feet on hometurf surrounded by where we've been happy. And the children know wherever they are, get home if you can. But I always think of the mother in 'The Road' in these scenarios - to what extremes would I want to live in? she walks out. Is there any point in just surviving with no hope. Can you imagine the government we would get after it?
There would be that chance (all speculation of course) that the people would become their own gov. I think politicians know how to buy things but do not know how to do things so could easily perish as well.
 
most of my area are incomers and I think they would leave, especially when the one and only food shop is empty.
In a total display of my ignorance, what is your definition of an "incomer"?
(I realize that folks in the United Kingdom use words correctly and those of us in the Colonies need a little more explanation)

I thought your comment about the "Larder" was interesting, in fact I was so interested in the term that I looked it up Larder - Wikipedia . If I won the lottery I would want to build a custom house that had a larder in it!

When reading all the posts I started thinking about the plans for 15 minute cities. If people can get everything they need by walking 15 minutes, they don't need cars or wide streets, you can control entry points, eventually you have created contained walled communities with about a 1.5 mile (2.5km) radius. You can build vertically to squeeze as many people and services into as tiny space as possible (visualize a compact down town New York City), freeing up the country side for industrial farming. Then, when the SHTF, the establishment can simply close off the access points to the undesirable population groups, shut down their services and contain the problem... Definitely something the WEF would endorse.

OH, I also want to let you know @lonewolf that I like your comments and appreciate your point of view.... Sometimes my comments appear negative and that is my BAD, no reflection on anyone else...
 

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