- Joined
- Jan 15, 2018
- Messages
- 79
Okay... For those who don't know me, hello. I am an author (yes, it's official.....full-time author now) who got my start with a series of forum posts from another website that many of the regular visitors here may remember, and that series was entitled: Officer of the Watch. It garnered a rather sizable following, not to sound immodest, and at last check had over 50,000 views and counting. That series of posts went on to become a book series entitled Blackout with 3 volumes and counting. The entire premise of this series is a massive EMP attack on the United States that is coordinated with a similar attack over mainland Europe and a ground invasion by a fictional Russia that has decided the time has come to resurrect the USSR.
This kind of event, what I like to call a "flashpoint" event is one kind of disaster that can bring down a society or civilization. Think of it like the eruption of Mount Vesuvius and its effect on Pompeii. That was a flashpoint event in every sense of the word, a sudden and massive cataclysm that lead to the immediate and irrevocable collapse of the society in the immediate area. Whatever the actual disaster is, it hits and is over very quickly and the subsequent impact is both immediate and long-term. It could be small-scale like in the case of Mount Vesuvius, or large scale like the impact of a large asteroid or comet. I chose to go with an EMP attack that immediately crashes most of modern technology as the disaster, and I tried to envision a worst-case-scenario for that effect.
But in my research it has become apparent that these "flashpoint" incidents represent one kind of a civilization ending event, but there's another often more complex type and that is the "slow burn" event. This is something that, as the name implies, takes some time to come to fruition. But, when it does, the cumulative effect is so catastrophic that it can last generations. The Black Death was this kind of disaster with the worst years being from 1348-49. But the overall impact was spread out over more than a hundred years with multiple smaller outbreaks after those heavy years as well as the potential impact prior to the European outbreak through the central steppes of Asia and down into India and southeastern Asia. One of the last official outbreaks of plague was localized in that region, and the Black Death probably originated there and migrated out with armies and trade caravans/convoys.
These slow burn events are often more complex and may have one cause compounding on another. The 1918 Influenza pandemic, for examples, was not only more virulent than those the population had been exposed to recently, but its geographic reach was greatly extended due to the mobility of military personnel during the peak years. Along with the increased reach the ranks of the military were also often injured, malnourished, lacking sleep, or most often a combination of the three. Men in this weakened state lacked the strength to fight off the infection and were prone to having bad if not terminal cases.
Now, my question... For those of you who are more experienced in this realm, what are the differences in planning for one type of event versus the other? Are there any differences? What do you need to focus more on in a slow-burn even than you focus on in a flashpoint sudden catastrophe?
I have some ideas in my head for how the two types of disaster could give rise to two different strategies for prepping/planning, but wanted to see what some other thoughts are first. I'll share mine after a few comments.... Also how I think they are the same.
One reason I ask is that I am currently working on another book that may well turn into a series that deals with a slow-burn event. In this case it's the emergence of an Ebola-type filovirus that is more easily transmittable and roughly 60% mortality. In this case it takes several months for the disaster to peak and then slowly taper. But the effects are catastrophic. 4.3 billion dead in 18 months. 2.9 from the virus and another 1.4 from famine, war, and other diseases. It will be another 10 years before the birth and death rates equal and population reaches a steady state. By that time there will be just over 1 billion people left worldwide.
SO, with that in mind and considering the questions above, I look forward to your input. And, as always, thanks for reading!
DWM.
This kind of event, what I like to call a "flashpoint" event is one kind of disaster that can bring down a society or civilization. Think of it like the eruption of Mount Vesuvius and its effect on Pompeii. That was a flashpoint event in every sense of the word, a sudden and massive cataclysm that lead to the immediate and irrevocable collapse of the society in the immediate area. Whatever the actual disaster is, it hits and is over very quickly and the subsequent impact is both immediate and long-term. It could be small-scale like in the case of Mount Vesuvius, or large scale like the impact of a large asteroid or comet. I chose to go with an EMP attack that immediately crashes most of modern technology as the disaster, and I tried to envision a worst-case-scenario for that effect.
But in my research it has become apparent that these "flashpoint" incidents represent one kind of a civilization ending event, but there's another often more complex type and that is the "slow burn" event. This is something that, as the name implies, takes some time to come to fruition. But, when it does, the cumulative effect is so catastrophic that it can last generations. The Black Death was this kind of disaster with the worst years being from 1348-49. But the overall impact was spread out over more than a hundred years with multiple smaller outbreaks after those heavy years as well as the potential impact prior to the European outbreak through the central steppes of Asia and down into India and southeastern Asia. One of the last official outbreaks of plague was localized in that region, and the Black Death probably originated there and migrated out with armies and trade caravans/convoys.
These slow burn events are often more complex and may have one cause compounding on another. The 1918 Influenza pandemic, for examples, was not only more virulent than those the population had been exposed to recently, but its geographic reach was greatly extended due to the mobility of military personnel during the peak years. Along with the increased reach the ranks of the military were also often injured, malnourished, lacking sleep, or most often a combination of the three. Men in this weakened state lacked the strength to fight off the infection and were prone to having bad if not terminal cases.
Now, my question... For those of you who are more experienced in this realm, what are the differences in planning for one type of event versus the other? Are there any differences? What do you need to focus more on in a slow-burn even than you focus on in a flashpoint sudden catastrophe?
I have some ideas in my head for how the two types of disaster could give rise to two different strategies for prepping/planning, but wanted to see what some other thoughts are first. I'll share mine after a few comments.... Also how I think they are the same.
One reason I ask is that I am currently working on another book that may well turn into a series that deals with a slow-burn event. In this case it's the emergence of an Ebola-type filovirus that is more easily transmittable and roughly 60% mortality. In this case it takes several months for the disaster to peak and then slowly taper. But the effects are catastrophic. 4.3 billion dead in 18 months. 2.9 from the virus and another 1.4 from famine, war, and other diseases. It will be another 10 years before the birth and death rates equal and population reaches a steady state. By that time there will be just over 1 billion people left worldwide.
SO, with that in mind and considering the questions above, I look forward to your input. And, as always, thanks for reading!
DWM.
