Solar Flare Frenzy and CME

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Sourdough

"Eleutheromaniac"
Neighbor
HCL Supporter
Joined
Mar 17, 2018
Messages
6,100
Location
In a cabin, on a mountain, in "Wilderness" Alaska.
As if we don't have enough to worry about...

The Lord may have had about enough of our foolishness.

From Sourdough's link:

SOLAR FLARE FRENZY AND CME: Yesterday, May 22nd, sunspot AR2824 unleashed a sequence of solar flares unlike anything we've seen in years. In only 24 hours, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded 10 C-flares and 2 M-flares: movie. The rapidfire explosions hurled multiple overlapping CMEs into space. According to NOAA models, at least one of them will graze Earth's magnetic field on May 26th. The impact of the CME's dense flank could spark G1-class geomagnetic storms and auroras. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
 
Well, as far as solar flares go we can protect ourselves by turning off the power. We can't be hurt from the grid if we aren't connected.
Even another Carrington event won't hurt your electronics. you can get the time information HERE.
 
Your point is valid.......but there are still many problems. A primary one is it assumes you have the ability to shut-off or disconnect your equipment.

Example: When the 911 Twin Towers attack happened. I was informed about it (11) Eleven days after it happened. I was in deep wilderness Alaska guiding two Moose and Grizzly Bear hunters, near Canada.
 
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Assuming the powers that be don't suppress the information....we will have 12-18 hours warning for a CME. Like many of you, I imagine, I have a service on my phone that gives notifications of solar activity.

My set up is designed so nothing survival related is connected to the grid. So if it hits without warning, my TV and PS4 are toast...but my water pumps, surveillance system, etc, is fine.
 
...
SOLAR FLARE FRENZY AND CME: Yesterday, May 22nd, sunspot AR2824 unleashed a sequence of solar flares unlike anything we've seen in years. In only 24 hours, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded 10 C-flares and 2 M-flares: movie. The rapidfire explosions hurled multiple overlapping CMEs into space. According to NOAA models, at least one of them will graze Earth's magnetic field on May 26th. The impact of the CME's dense flank could spark G1-class geomagnetic storms and auroras. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
Well, 05-26-21 has come and gone. Nothing happened.
I was diligently watching all of my instruments.
I figured that my most sensitive (satellite dish receiver) would be the first casualty, taking a direct hit from such a powerful EMP. :rolleyes:
A few glitched pixels was it.
The problem with people that predict "The End of the World" every other month, is that nobody ever follows up later and says: 'you do realize that nothing happened, right?'.
No 'tha-grid' did not melt down for 7 years either.gaah
The problem is, this makes people deaf from hearing "WOLF!!!" screamed constantly and when we need to be warned of something important, we won't be able to hear.:(
 
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05-26-21 has come and gone. Nothing happened.
I was diligently watching all of my instruments.
I figured that my most sensitive (satelite dish receiver) would be the first casualty, taking a direct hit from such a powerful EMP.

Sourdough's and Alaskajohn's posts specifically said C class and M class flares leading to a G1 class geomagnetic storm. Absolutely no one expects those to lead to the end of the world nor was such claimed.

Now if there had been a false claim of an X class flare and a G5 geomagnetic storm and nothing happened I could well understand your post. But there were no such false the sky is falling claims. All that was said is the sun is rather active, and as a matter of interest a bunch of C and M class flares were detected by NASA.
 
No 'tha-grid' did not melt down for 7 years either.gaah
The problem is, this makes people deaf from hearing "WOLF!!!" screamed constantly and when we need to be warned of something important, we won't be able to hear.:(

"You"..........I suspect will be surprise to discover I 100% agree with you. I fact I propose we save money by shutting down the "Hurricane Warning System" and that "Tornado warning System" and "That Flood Warning System". Why........you might be wondering, because "NONE" of those things have ever happened right here where I live, so shut them down.
 
I wonder if that is what knocked out my Zoom meeting yesterday? I was told that other Zoomers far and wide also experienced outages. And my cell phone service and my internet connection has been wonky all week long...

So many essential things--our entire global system--is connected to the fragile internet and cell systems. Water, fuel, commerce, medical systems, you name it... sun farts have the potential to wipe us out.
 
Well, 05-26-21 has come and gone. Nothing happened.
I was diligently watching all of my instruments.
I figured that my most sensitive (satellite dish receiver) would be the first casualty, taking a direct hit from such a powerful EMP. :rolleyes:
A few glitched pixels was it.
The problem with people that predict "The End of the World" every other month, is that nobody ever follows up later and says: 'you do realize that nothing happened, right?'.
No 'tha-grid' did not melt down for 7 years either.gaah
The problem is, this makes people deaf from hearing "WOLF!!!" screamed constantly and when we need to be warned of something important, we won't be able to hear.:(

Do you jump to false conclusions this often?

Just like predicted there was heightened activity exactly as predicted from the source in my post. It was spot on accurate and happened as quoted. Actually, the 25th was a good show too, so it overachieved. Critical reading and comprehension skills are important to master. If you perceived my post to be anything more than what was stated, that is your doing.

And while you make false statements, let me post actually what happened day by day from the site that monitors this, which is not your basement: Aurora Forecast | Geophysical Institute

The first graph, hard to read from the paste, shows a trend for increased activity hitting the earth. The next three shows actual daily impact from May 25-27.
1622155471489.png


1622154816472.png

1622154839765.png

1622154867829.png


Amazing what facts can do for an argument! The 26th did indeed result in a "HIGH(+) ACTIVITY" event as predicted!


Carry on.
 
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Well, 05-26-21 has come and gone. Nothing happened.
I was diligently watching all of my instruments.
I figured that my most sensitive (satellite dish receiver) would be the first casualty, taking a direct hit from such a powerful EMP. :rolleyes:
A few glitched pixels was it.
The problem with people that predict "The End of the World" every other month, is that nobody ever follows up later and says: 'you do realize that nothing happened, right?'.
No 'tha-grid' did not melt down for 7 years either.gaah
The problem is, this makes people deaf from hearing "WOLF!!!" screamed constantly and when we need to be warned of something important, we won't be able to hear.:(


Educate yourself, please, on the not-so-distant historical Carrington event then apply that situation to our present day, and you will have a very, very serious situation for a good long while. Meanwhile, there will be cascading and unprecedented damage to the entire system of things as we know it. It would take years to recover.

Then picture all those Walmartians and other fools that will run out of food in a week or less. Picture Katrina on a much, much wider scale than just a few states, for a far longer time. I can. I was there when no fuel could be had anywhere, and police had to actually commandeer fuel from the boats and vehicles of private citizens to keep generators and squad cars going. This was the scenario in many, many places at that time. And very few could call the cops anyway because their cell phones and landlines were down...

A finegrandmess it was, and it gave me a glimpse of how tightly tangled we are in our fragile system of all things that depend heavily on electricity.

Here you go, take a look at what two search engines pull up on the Carrington event:

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Carrington+event&va=b&t=hc&ia=web
https://www.google.com/search?q=car...j0l4j46j0l2.3886j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
 
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There are all different levels of flares and CME's. Happen on a regular basis. The one this week was unusual in that there was multiple lauching at the approximate same time. 12 of them IIRC. The largest from this one was an M class, which is a mid level if you will. The ones that worry me are the X class event's. Those are much more rare and are graded much like earthquakes.
 
...
Amazing what facts can do for an argument! The 26th did indeed result in a "HIGH(+) ACTIVITY" event as predicted!
So do you know how many months it will be before your power is restored?
How many of your 'digital devices' survived?
Did you get to at least see some fantastic Auroras?
Did you get any pictures, (assuming your digital camera was safely stored in a faraday-cage)?
 
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So do you know how many months it will be before your power is restored?
How many of your 'digital devices' survived?
Did you get to at least see some fantastic Auroras?
Did you get any pictures, (assuming your digital camera was safely stored in a faraday-cage)?

Now there you go making things up again. This appears to be your MO.

I honestly have no idea why you are acting so triggered, but that is your baggage and not mine.
 
So do you know how many months it will be before your power is restored?
How many of your 'digital devices' survived?
Did you get to at least see some fantastic Auroras?
Did you get any pictures, (assuming your digital camera was safely stored in a faraday-cage)?

No one said any of that was going to happen. Just because you don't agree with something doesn't mean you need to talk down to others.
 
So do you know how many months it will be before your power is restored?
How many of your 'digital devices' survived?
Did you get to at least see some fantastic Auroras?
Did you get any pictures, (assuming your digital camera was safely stored in a faraday-cage)?

I can only see two reasons for this reply. Either you are purposely being obtuse or you don't understand CME, flares and geomagnetic storms and the different levels and effects each can have on earth.
If you would like me to post more information on geomagnetic storms please let me know. To clarify why the ones we just had resulted in only minor interference vs the ones that are more rare, but certainly possible, and have occurred in the past. The ones that would result in the effects you are sarcastically asking about, and much worse.
 
No one said any of that was going to happen. Just because you don't agree with something doesn't mean you need to talk down to others.
I was just asking questions. That's how we learn.
As if we don't have enough to worry about...

The Lord may have had about enough of our foolishness.
 
I honestly have no idea why you are acting so triggered, but that is your baggage and not mine.

Indeed. So confused.

Nobody thought anything bad was going to happen last week. Nothing did. It's all there in black and white.

It was a minor solar storm, which served as a reminder and topic of discussion of what a MAJOR solar event will be like.

Nobody cried wolf.
 
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Indeed. So confused.

Nobody thought anything bad was going to happen last week. Nothing did. It's all there in black and white.

It was a minor solar storm, which served as a reminder and topic of discussion of what a MAJOR solar event will be like.

Nobody cried wolf.

People do accuse survivalists of all sorts of things to distract themselves from the idea the artificial world around them is fragile.

I have always assumed the real message is "Make the bad man stop saying scary things" - even when those saying it, don't understand their own motivation.

After a life of that, I am pretty much desensitized to it.

Remember the early part of last year when we started to discuss (on that other forum) the Wuhan virus showing the potential to be a bigger pandemic than SARS - we did so quite calmly/objectively and were accused of "freaking out"........
 
People do accuse survivalists of all sorts of things to distract themselves from the idea the artificial world around them is fragile.

I have always assumed the real message is "Make the bad man stop saying scary things" - even when those saying it, don't understand their own motivation.

After a life of that, I am pretty much desensitized to it.

Remember the early part of last year when we started to discuss (on that other forum) the Wuhan virus showing the potential to be a bigger pandemic than SARS - we did so quite calmly/objectively and were accused of "freaking out"........

One of my early posts, Jan 13 was pretty prophetic sadly


Indeed.

I'm not saying that THIS is the next plague, but this is the kind of news that will come at the start of the next big one.

First it will be a dozen people in China. Then it will be thousands, then it will be one person in some US city a five states away.

Then it will be your neighbor.

You don't have to decide that every time someone is concerned that this is IT, but it's worth paying attention to the KIND of news that would precede the big one.
 
Flares and CMEs are not the same thing. Flares are much lower energy than flares. Flares typically travel near the speed of light (they are electrons) and get to the earth in minutes where CMEs travel slower because they have much more mass mass (being made of actual molecules).
Then they have to actually hit the earth to transfer their energy to the earth or the earth has to travel through the field.
If you like visuals look HERE.

The X-rays and energy from a solar flare would have to be extremely large to do much here on earth and it would be temporary and no more than moderate. A CME of moderate power hitting the earth squarely would certainly do more and longer lasting damage at the earth.
If a large CME hit the earth squarely that would be a very bad day for the entire developed world.
You can't expect a squirt gun to do much damage to a house but a fast moving 40 foot wall of water from a tsunami can remove the house and completely destroy it.
 
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I was just asking questions. That's how we learn.

Maybe you don't realize that the manner of that post was sounding very aggressive and almost growling. I don't know why but, it did come across that way.
 
@Angie It's all cool. I think we have both moved on.
 
I searched for this topic and revived this thread because there is a geomagnetic storm warning for this week and there is some speculation about another Carrington Event. I am completely ignorant of these things and had to look it up. For those of you who are knowledgeable, what do you think? Just how severe could the results of such a thing be for us?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/geomagne...ellites-aurora-northern-lights-180751272.html
https://www.space.com/the-carrington-event
It’s been conjectured that a storm on the scale of the Carrington event, if it happened today, could cause an internet apocalypse, sending large numbers of people and businesses offline. For this reason, the U.K. government(opens in new tab) lists adverse space weather as one of the most serious natural hazards in its National Risk Register, and companies have contingency plans to deal with severe events — as long as they have sufficient warning of them.

Researchers from Lloyd's of London and the Atmospheric and Environmental Research agency in the U.S. have estimated that a Carrington-class event today would result in between $0.6 and $2.6 trillion in damages to the U.S. alone, according to NASA spaceflight.
 
There was an interesting report that showed how far above mean-average the sun's activity has been the last 6-12 months. It was consistently a substantial amount. especially given the sun is currently in a low activity part of the normal cycle.
 
For those of you who are knowledgeable, what do you think? Just how severe could the results of such a thing be for us?
The TRUTH is we simply don't know. The good news is there is a substantial period of time between the CME eruption, and the impact on Earth. Roughly 48 hours. Here is how I hold what could be the outcome. For sure it would NOT greatly improve things.

As for how bad, there are many factors, so it could be any place between a substantial amount of damage, clear upto we really don't have the ability to grasp how bad it could be. We have constantly advanced our dependence on Satellites, and it is reasonable to think that they likely would be damaged.
 
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