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Should I be expecting a Cascadia Megaquake in the near future?
It most likely will not affect my little corner of the world but I still have family and friends on the western side of Washington.
 
Who really knows until it happens but...

https://www.seismosoc.org/news/how-often-do-cascadias-megaquakes-occur/

16 May 2018–Devastating magnitude 8.0 to 9.0 megathrust earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis appear to have hit the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Southwest Canada about every 500 years on average. But some scientists think the recurrence interval between some of these large earthquakes may be shorter—along the lines of every 300 years—in the southern part of the Cascadia subduction zone in Oregon and its coast.

To resolve this question and others, the Cascadia Recurrence Project Team has been working for more than a year to analyze and compare the evidence for past megathrust earthquakes in the region. At the 2018 SSA Annual Meeting, U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Joan Gomberg gave an overview of the Project’s work to date.

“We have lots of types of evidence to support these recurrence intervals, but our evidence or interpretation of our observations don’t always agree,” Gomberg said. “The goal of the project is to try to understand what these disagreements result from, and try to reconcile them ultimately.”
If magnitude 8.0 earthquakes do happen more often than every 500 years in the southern part of the Cascadia zone, for instance, this information could change the earthquake hazard estimates used to develop building safety codes, said Gomberg.

“Adding these earthquakes into our recurrence calculations could change our estimates of likely ground shaking by about 40%,” she noted.

The last megathrust earthquake in the region, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake, may have had a magnitude between 8.7 and 9.2. Scientists think the rupture may have extended from Vancouver Island to as far south as northern California.

The Project is a multidisciplinary team of researchers from the USGS, state and regional natural resource and geological surveys and universities. The team has been collecting and analyzing evidence for past megathrust earthquakes from a variety of sources, including fault rupture models, ground motion simulations, landslides, coastal land level changes, tsunami deposits and ocean sediment deposits produced by strong shaking and underwater slope failures.

Evidence for a potentially shorter megathrust recurrence interval in southern Cascadia comes from research that has identified and assigned dates to this last type of geological deposit, called turbidites, said Gomberg.

Although these types of evidence have been studied for decades in some cases, the Project is the first to piece together and compare studies from a wide range of disciplines to develop a detailed picture of Cascadia’s megathrust history, Gomberg said.

The ultimate goal, she noted “is to provide with a high degree of confidence a consensus on megathrust recurrence intervals, and to learn how variable these intervals are. In the end, this will impact hazard measurements and [earthquake] forecasts.”


So, even if its not caused by the sun, its still possible. Its been over 300 yrs in the scientists 300-500 yr time table.
 
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It has been 319 years since the last slip of that fault. There have been full rupture breaks in shorter time periods but the average is around 500 years with the longest span just over 1000 years.
I can't say it will happen in the next few years but when it does happen a lot of people are going to die waiting for help. With no water, power, fuel of any kind for more than a year in most cases there is very little room for preparation. You can have a years worth of water and food but what are you going to do with the waste? What are you going to do with the dead bodies? Most people have less than a weeks worth of water and less food. It will take FEMA and the military two weeks to assess the situation and get set up to launch the first respondents to dig people out of the broken cities. The roads will be in need of replacement and will all have to be dug up to replace water and sewer lines. Power lines will have to be replaced and new poles put in. Only helicopters and VTOL planes like the Osprey will have access and there are not enough of them to deliver water much less food and water to the 3 million people in need.
There will be no jobs outside the military and police so you are going to pay your mortgage, taxes or rent from your savings - that can't be accessed because the banks are without power. No jobs due to damaged structures, loss of power, natural gas, water and sewer. Boeing will move to its other locations out of state so the folks that work at Boeing will be without jobs as will the businesses that support Boeing. The whole area is going to look like a mining town two years after the mine shuts down.
I have tried to talk to my family and friends but to no avail.
Where I am, in eastern Washington, we will get hit with a quake between m4 and m6 that will probably take down most of the down town area of Walla Walla because everything there is unreinforced masonry construction and none of it has been updated. Out away from town we might lose gas for a few days but that is about all. I didn't build the house I'm in so I can't be sure it will still be usable but it is stick built wood construction so it is likely to survive. My two outbuildings will take just about anything nature throws at them. I built them to withstand m7 and higher quakes and wind speeds of over 100 mph. They are heated and cooled with a heat pump and will remain tight. They are 2x6 construction bolted to their foundations with 1/2" "J" bolts every 32 inches. Lots of insulation and good lighting. Most of the folks in this area will be fine but I wonder about the folks in the older homes in town. The Walla Walla county emergency response depends on power very heavily and there may be some problems caused by the local substation not being hardened. Time will tell.
 
When Cascadia goes it will take out the docks and harbours in WA and OR. the ships, barges, and tugs that are I. harbour will be deposited inland or sunk. This is what I worry about the most as AK lives off of barges. If we loose half or better of the barges that serve AK and those have to travel to San Fransisco or further Alaska is going to starve. Also with all the damage to the shore facilities there will be a demand for the remaining barges and tugs for rebuilding the docks.
 
At least Alaska will still have seaports, airports and roads. Vancouver BC, Washington, Oregon and Northern California won't have much of any of those.
I agree that Alaska is going to be affected but food stuffs will be shipped in a priority fashion to keep Alaskans alive. It never hurts to have food for a year in the pantry though. There should be enough meat and fish to feed the state but wheat and veggies are going to be a problem.
 
I live in an area that is hill farming country so its stock rearing-sheep and cattle, no arable farms, they are all further away.
these hill farms are fairly small and are one man operations, or one man and a boy, and farmers are quite old, the average age is 66 but many are in their 70s and I knew 2 brothers who were in their 80s.
where there are arable farms its all "mono cropping" which is only possible by heavy use of man made fertilisers and pesticides, these are all imported and post SHTF that will stop, without these chemicals the ground is infertile and useless to grow anything.
 
Arable farm is a term I had never heard.
From Wiki.
Arable land is, according to one definition, land capable of being ploughed and used to grow crops. In Britain, it was traditionally contrasted with pasturable land such as heaths which could be used for sheep-rearing but not farmland. More at Wikipedia
2 countries separated by a common language.:)
Learn something new every day
Thank you lonewolf.
 
backlash said:
Arable farm is a term I had never heard.
From Wiki.
Arable land is, according to one definition, land capable of being ploughed and used to grow crops. In Britain, it was traditionally contrasted with pasturable land such as heaths which could be used for sheep-rearing but not farmland. More at Wikipedia
2 countries separated by a common language.:)
Learn something new every day
Thank you lonewolf.
Click to expand...
my pleasure!
 
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