The Danger of Survivorship Bias

[SoJer]

Found this on 'another forum', and found it relevant / fascinating enough to Discuss / expand into a bigger 'What can We learn from it' / apply to Today / Future:

..but I Also think this could be expanded into a discussion of the 'dangers' of "Well, I survived [x], therefore, I should be all-good for [x + y]..."

To me, one of the Biggest 'dangers' of Survivorship Bias would be complacency / allowing oneself to be seduced by 'Perfect is the enemy of Good Enough - Therefore, I shall Do Nothing Further-than That', etc.. ie:

Citizen Cane bought some nice Guns / Ammo, and took a legit Course on 'basic shooting skills', etc, and Does, indeed, "go to the range" a couple times a year, and, in fact, Is a 'pretty good shot'... From the Bench.. And (of course..) with no one 'shooting back', at him.

..One day, though, post some hotly-debated Local Trial's decision, the 'SJWs' come out to the 'Burbs, in force, and begin to toss molotovs at homes / stopping cars / beating random 'Evil white people', etc, and when Cane perceives immediate Threat to His home - he exits, Armed and Ready to protect his Family / Home (think the 'McCloskeys', etc)

..And is immediately fired upon - which fortunately, misses, but the assailant runs away laterally, and although Seeing / pointing his Gun at the attacker - Cane is shot when the punk takes cover behind a car, and is killed. Where did he 'go wrong'? Well - He never took the Time to Learn How to shoot a Moving Target.

(Note: this would not really be "Survivorship Bias", as-defined in the illustration, above, but it's an Example of what I mean by 'let's Expand the discussion' - Ergo: He felt "I Have guns / Can shoot / Can hit a target = I'm "Safe". Unfortunately he was Wrong. +_+

Also, this is Not an example of "Normalcy Bias".. In This scenario, Normalcy Bias would be more like 'I don't Need a Gun, because... "Police".. etc..)

How can we, as 'Survivalists / Homesteaders' apply / learn from both what the Illustration / That historical example, as well as the Above, might 'Teach' us? Thoughts?

jd

 

[Pearl]

I think anything goes at any time! I feel true survival depends on your ability to think fast, situations can change in a split second! One must "hold it together" ( like not panic in an emergency) to be able to make split second decisions!!

 

[Caribou]

The wife and I survived a mid air collision. The most distressing part was realising that the odds of being in a mid air collision are the same every time I get on a plane as they were that day.

 

[Aerindel]

The challenge is the data.

You need actual data rather than 'accounts' as all accounts are completely dependent on survivorship bias, ie, only survivors can give an account of what happened.

Let's say you are sending out 'airplanes' to conduct raids on enemy territory. Half of the airplanes have armor, half of them don't because the pilots think the armor slows them down and does more harm than good.

The crew of the airplanes that come back with armor will tell you how glad they are to have the armor because it stopped shots that would have otherwise brought them down. The crews that come back without armor will tell you how glad they where to not have the armor because they avoided getting hit on account of being faster. Neither is lying, but both accounts are useless.

Only the quartermaster who actually kept records of how many planes went out with armor and how many came back will really have useful information for someone trying to figure out if armor on airplanes is a good idea.

And that information itself only has value if the military planners actually trust his bookkeeping and do something about it, or the pilots listen to the military planners and don't just do their own research.


The best WE can do is learn from our learnable failures, ie, the ones we survive. This requires a ruthless 'anti-fatalism' mindset. If you stub your toe, its because YOU should have moved that brick before you hit it. If your car breaks down its because YOU failed to replace the part before it wore out. If your house burns down its because YOU failed to put out the fire. No room for '**** happens' or 'acts of god'. Every bad thing that happens is your fault, and if you survived, its your duty to fix it, and to figure out what the next possible bad thing could be. Treat every near miss, as an actual hit on yourself in a parallel universe.

Yeah, it's not conducive to a good nights sleep. You basically have to eliminate any trace of self esteem. Your inner voice becomes your own Lee Ermey.

Most people take the opposite approach. They are known as 'happy people'.

"Well, because it actually happened, it couldn't have been stopped, and can't be stopped next time either'

 

[Tirediron]

While I very much agree with the above post, if you change fault to responsibility the shame part is removed, because worry and if only just erase good lessons.

 

[SoJer]

..if you change fault to responsibility the shame part is removed..

Also valid, but I - think - he was more meaning it like 'If - for the purposes of Learning - you View everything bad that 'Happens' as "Every bad thing that happens is your fault.." - to the aim of - 'therefore what can I Learn / fix to Not suffer [that thing] again', etc..

..I mean, I don't think he's implying that, ie: the Sun going Supernova someday is "His Fault".. There are, indeed, things that "happen" Beyond our control in life, but.. The chore, is to become Perceptive / 'Forward thinking' enough to avoid "Avoidable bad things happening", ie: Don't shoot up heroin, and you'll likely Not die from a heroin OD..

...And that information itself only has value if the military planners actually trust his bookkeeping and do something about it, or the pilots...

..Or, third, if the Surviving Pilots - having learned from [whatever they survived] Made 'Mods' (whatever they Could..) that eliminated (some, at least..) of what 'broke' / was weak, etc, that they Learned from - regardless if the 'CO / authorities did that Math' / Made needed changes - or Not..

ie: We see this play out with Firearms owners vs the "reduce gun violence" karens.. The 'Learned-ones' will Do what they Want / know Needs to be Done, vs waiting on 'common sense legislation' to 'not be Too bad', etc.. Cue the 'lessons' that Susanna Hupp 'learned' (bet she never went Anywhere unarmed, again, "laws" be damned..

The wife and I survived a mid air collision. The most distressing part was realising that the odds.... are the same every time I get on a plane as they were that day.

Wow.. I assume this was a 'small plane', ie: a Cessna or other-such? I, too, had a 'pretty close call' once.. No, was Not a 'collision' (I seriously doubt I'd be typing this right now, if it Had been..) but a - pretty serious - 'Cowl Fire' on a Delta 757-flight, ATL > LAX, and it was shortly after takeoff, that I first noticed the 'odd orange glow'..

..I was in First Class (...made the 'Upgrade', heh..) and usually, as the plane cruises up Thru the cloud-cover, you'll see 'flashes of reflected light' on the Window-trim, inside, from the forward lights on the wing.. But, this time - the "light" was Orange, so it quickly caught my attention (was face-forward, but already starting to 'nap out', so eyes drifting open / shut..) At that moment, the 'Bing!' sound rang out, indicating we'd just past 10000 AGL..

..and when I looked out my window - it looked like a 'Gasoline fire in a washing-machine on the Spin-cycle' in the Engine - Completely engulfed, inside the Cowl, with a - shoot, must have easily been 150' flame-trail behind the engine, etc.. And, ya know - my 'first thought' was 'Dang it! I don't have Time for this , I've got So much to Do!' Wasn't 'scared' really at all, but.. Did think 'Uh.. if this goes Down, from this height.. That's prolly 'it'...

For brevity's sake: Pilot coolly eased back / advised all in the flight 'we were returning', etc, Did return safely / FD was there on Touchdown / they Quickly foamed it Out / all were evacuated (and I 'stayed' to help with flash-lighting the Exit, was the 3rd last person Out, besides Captain / Co-Pilot, and even helped a woman who was complaining of 'chest pain' on the ground, till EMTs got there, etc..) In all, I considered it a 'good Experience'..

Anyhoo, Point - relative to the Op / Topic - is, that's Another 'fascinating aspect' to this Bias.. I mean - I, for one, was On the 'Next available flight' - whereas, I saw Most of those on that flight that night, going to the 'Service desk', to see about "alternate transpo" (bus / train / car-rental, etc - they'd 'had it', at least for then.. But not me..) I don't see that as my "bravery" - just Survivorship bias (cuz, yeah - the Next plane certainly Could Have crashed, totally..)

..What about You guys? Fly 'right away'? Or, did it 'take awhile'? No 'judgement', either way, just curious.

jd

 

[Caribou]

Also valid, but I - think - he was more meaning it like 'If - for the purposes of Learning - you View everything bad that 'Happens' as "Every bad thing that happens is your fault.." - to the aim of - 'therefore what can I Learn / fix to Not suffer [that thing] again', etc..

..I mean, I don't think he's implying that, ie: the Sun going Supernova someday is "His Fault".. There are, indeed, things that "happen" Beyond our control in life, but.. The chore, is to become Perceptive / 'Forward thinking' enough to avoid "Avoidable bad things happening", ie: Don't shoot up heroin, and you'll likely Not die from a heroin OD..



..Or, third, if the Surviving Pilots - having learned from [whatever they survived] Made 'Mods' (whatever they Could..) that eliminated (some, at least..) of what 'broke' / was weak, etc, that they Learned from - regardless if the 'CO / authorities did that Math' / Made needed changes - or Not..

ie: We see this play out with Firearms owners vs the "reduce gun violence" karens.. The 'Learned-ones' will Do what they Want / know Needs to be Done, vs waiting on 'common sense legislation' to 'not be Too bad', etc.. Cue the 'lessons' that Susanna Hupp 'learned' (bet she never went Anywhere unarmed, again, "laws" be damned..



Wow.. I assume this was a 'small plane', ie: a Cessna or other-such? I, too, had a 'pretty close call' once.. No, was Not a 'collision' (I seriously doubt I'd be typing this right now, if it Had been..) but a - pretty serious - 'Cowl Fire' on a Delta 757-flight, ATL > LAX, and it was shortly after takeoff, that I first noticed the 'odd orange glow'..

..I was in First Class (...made the 'Upgrade', heh..) and usually, as the plane cruises up Thru the cloud-cover, you'll see 'flashes of reflected light' on the Window-trim, inside, from the forward lights on the wing.. But, this time - the "light" was Orange, so it quickly caught my attention (was face-forward, but already starting to 'nap out', so eyes drifting open / shut..) At that moment, the 'Bing!' sound rang out, indicating we'd just past 10000 AGL..

..and when I looked out my window - it looked like a 'Gasoline fire in a washing-machine on the Spin-cycle' in the Engine - Completely engulfed, inside the Cowl, with a - shoot, must have easily been 150' flame-trail behind the engine, etc.. And, ya know - my 'first thought' was 'Dang it! I don't have Time for this , I've got So much to Do!' Wasn't 'scared' really at all, but.. Did think 'Uh.. if this goes Down, from this height.. That's prolly 'it'...

For brevity's sake: Pilot coolly eased back / advised all in the flight 'we were returning', etc, Did return safely / FD was there on Touchdown / they Quickly foamed it Out / all were evacuated (and I 'stayed' to help with flash-lighting the Exit, was the 3rd last person Out, besides Captain / Co-Pilot, and even helped a woman who was complaining of 'chest pain' on the ground, till EMTs got there, etc..) In all, I considered it a 'good Experience'..

Anyhoo, Point - relative to the Op / Topic - is, that's Another 'fascinating aspect' to this Bias.. I mean - I, for one, was On the 'Next available flight' - whereas, I saw Most of those on that flight that night, going to the 'Service desk', to see about "alternate transpo" (bus / train / car-rental, etc - they'd 'had it', at least for then.. But not me..) I don't see that as my "bravery" - just Survivorship bias (cuz, yeah - the Next plane certainly Could Have crashed, totally..)

..What about You guys? Fly 'right away'? Or, did it 'take awhile'? No 'judgement', either way, just curious.

jd

A helicopter took the floats off our Cessna 185. They were dead before they hit the water. Our pilot bellied our plane in. We had been flying in to a remote cabin on a lake. The (now) wife got on a jet back home a few days later. A year or so later I was running an air ambulance in remote Alaska in all kinds of weather flying in small commercial fixed wing and military helicopters. I did loose my joy of helicopters.

 

[SoJer]

Wow, Crazy.. Welp, I'm sure Glad you're typing this - and it's not an 'account' from someone Else, about ya's..

Here's to Survivorship Bias - Tequila on Tap for everyone!

jd

 

[Aerindel]

..I mean, I don't think he's implying that, ie: the Sun going Supernova someday is "His Fault".. There are, indeed, things that "happen" Beyond our control in life, but.. The chore, is to become Perceptive / 'Forward thinking' enough to avoid "Avoidable bad things happening", ie: Don't shoot up heroin, and you'll likely Not die from a heroin OD..

Honestly, I think sometimes about what decisions I make today that could possibly lead to my descendants being left behind on earth when the ships leave in a thousand years to colonize Omicron Iridani six or whatever.

Sounds silly but I'm only where I am today instead of dead, in Africa, because a thousand generations of my ancestors made presumably good decisions in the past.

 

[Spikedriver]

I'd say, "Go back up!" But, I just had a rather unnerving weather related experience on a flight from PHX to Des Moines a couple weeks ago. Feeling a 737 go sideways on final approach is not something I ever want to experience again. Of course, after we diverted to Kansas City I had to fly back to Des Moines if I wanted to get home that night, so I didn't have much choice but to go back up right away. An experience like that makes it quite apparent that even though you are safe and comfortable inside the aircraft, you are really in a thin aluminum tube going 400 miles an hour, and that aluminum tube is the only thing separating you from instant death...

 

[Caribou]

We were coming into Bethel, AK. I was sitting in the exit aisle and they had placed us in the crash position. The the stewardess came up to me and told me to check for fire before I opened the emergency exit. She wasted several seconds telling me not to open the door if there were flames on that side of the plane.

 

[Tirediron]

Some of us are meant to live through things that have ended the lifecycle of others, being an adrenaline junky I have done a lot of things that by most accounts are at the very least extremely dangerous, I learned to use my heal up time to figure out how to balance the thrill of life with the pain, In my case I was responsible for what happened, even if that was being where stuff happened that had nothing to do with my action, except being there. In the end my wounds remind me that I LIVED.

 

[SoJer]

...being an adrenaline junky I have done a lot of things that by most accounts are at the very least extremely dangerous ...

Lemme guess...

Honestly, I think sometimes about what decisions I make today that could possibly lead to my descendants being left behind on earth when the ships leave in a thousand years to colonize Omicron Iridani six or whatever.

I think you win the 'Most Excruciatingly Responsible Person Ever Award', mon frére.. But I get / admire what yer saying.. We're All like a 'bread pan with a dent in the side' - we have no choice but to 'pass on the Imperfection', but..

..At least we Can choose to Not 'dent it up worse'...

jd

 

[Magus]

You haven't had an adrenaline rush until you've rolled down a half mile hill in a D-9 tire with a 5th of tequila pumping through your head! come to think, you'll never bazooka barf like that again either! Someday, before I die, I have to share that story for posterity.

 

[Tirediron]

@ SoJer, close, most of my antics incuded 4 hooves or 4 or more wheels