There are differing levels of probability for each type of SHTF event.
The likelihood that a Mad Max / The Road / Walking Dead apocalypse occurs, such that the entire society is reduced to a Dark Ages, subsistence living, hunter-gather society existence...I think that likelihood is low.
I think there are many more likely SHTF events that are much more likely.
One of those events is a simple (but catastrophic) economic collapse, where people lose confidence in the banks first, and then the paper that the banks hand out. People (and the authorities) will naturally look for other types of currency at that point. The authorities will try to reset the paper currency...they may succeed, or they may fail. If they succeed, then they will likely enforce an arbitrary exchange rate between the old currency and the new...but they might not be able to enforce that exchange rate on the market, and gold and silver might be very useful at that point in time.
I just don't think it is all or nothing: either the dollar is strong, or I'm only eating what I can grow on my property. I also think that not only is there a continuum of probabilities for me, between winning the lottery, and living alone in a zombie apocalypse, but that continuum of probabilities is actually a bell curve, with the probabilities at the extremes being very low, and the probabilities in the middle being very high.
Do I prepare for my ultimate disaster (an EMP)? Yes...even if the probability is low, the harm is great, so I prepare. Do I prepare for many SHTF events that fall far short of the worst case? Definitely yes, because I think those events are more likely, even if their harm is less.
My prepping is done on a risk based analysis, not harm based: Risk = Probability X Harm.
Low probability but very high harm can mean a risk that needs to be prepared for.
Low harm, but very high probability can mean a risk that needs to be prepared for.
If harm or probability approach zero (harm is mere inconvenience or almost impossible probability), then the risk is near zero and need not be prepared for...unless the complementary probability or harm approach infinity (certainty or occurring, or certain death of family if it occurs). The math is actually simple. The trick is to consciously and intelligently assign reasonably correct values to the two variables.
Tequila may have been involved...
