When will we see Rolling Blackouts?

[angie_nrs]

We've been told that these blackouts are coming. Usually when 'they' say something bad is coming......it's coming. I just wonder when we will see the blackouts here? The only difference that I see in the blackout 'stories' is the root cause. Some will be caused by war, trade disputes, weather, green energy mandates, etc. Here's a couple examples:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Finland-Braces-For-Rolling-Blackouts-This-Winter.htmlhttps://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ng-blackouts-and-factory-closures/ar-AA11426t
Here's also a thread that is related:
https://www.homesteadingforum.org/t...-are-becoming-much-clearer.15128/#post-488155
Anytime you predict a shortage and it happens, someone gets a whole lot of money from that and the price for the average Joe skyrockets. Insiders (elites/politicians) know which companies to invest in and how to short others and make money either way. I think that is at the root cause of all these shortages, while other 'reasons' are blamed for it. Since almost everyone relies on energy, it's ripe for targeting, even more-so than healthcare that was attacked by Obama. Remember when Biden-2.0 said utility costs 'will necessarily have to increase?' Gee, was he a prophet or was this planned? No matter how much money they leach from the middle class, it seems that it'll never be enough. But, I digress.....

I just wonder WHEN these blackouts will affect us here in America? I believe California has already experienced this due to 'fires' and other places have been affected short term due to weather. But I wonder when blackouts will be the new norm? I have heard our local energy leaders say that they ARE coming and that in most cases, they will be unannounced. However, they say they should only last 2-3 hours, but perhaps up to 12 hours. Um, OK.....sure. If they're unannounced, how many people are going to be caught unprepared? Gas stations out, banks out, internet down, heat/air conditioner out, restaruants down, etc. If people see a storm coming they will get ready for it, but if these blackouts are random.....how many will be screwed? If I'm being honest, I like a heads up even though I'd be OK either way. When a storm is coming I make sure my car is full of gas, the gas cans are ALL full, the laundry is done, the house is clean, the dishes are done, the backup power is ready to go and close by, etc. I think we all appreciate a heads up on such a situation.

I'm convinced that this will happen and it will likely happen this winter, especially since the 'news' is predicting a snowy winter. I also think that after the November elections, things will get dicey, at least until the new blood takes office in January. Those leaving office usually like to create chaos on their way out.

 

[UrbanHunter]

In the 90s the East Coast saw rolling blackouts because of the harsh winter weather. Texas has seen what happens when harsh winter weather takes the wind and solar down. I think that with our expanding dependence on "renewable" green power we can all expect to be slipped the "green weenie" at anytime going forward.

The last decade has shown me that whenever the wind blows and the rains come here, I can expect the lights to go out....

Just something we need to learn to live with. We are seeing that the utility rates here are going up by about 25% in September.

As for how many people will be screwed, I would guess that in America about 330 million people are about to get screwed.......

If it takes about 10 years to build a new Nuclear power plant (that's how long the one in Arizona took), then we should be making our long term contingency plans....

 

[DrJenner]

Living in CA for 30 years, this is something we experienced most summers.
Now, in WA, some of the hotter areas have sporadically had these rolling blackouts (tri-cities area in SE WA).
I'm with @UrbanHunter it's past time to make the long term contingency plans.

 

[angie_nrs]

Living in CA for 30 years, this is something we experienced most summers.
Now, in WA, some of the hotter areas have sporadically had these rolling blackouts (tri-cities area in SE WA).
I'm with @UrbanHunter it's past time to make the long term contingency plans.

I'm curious, did you get advanced notices of the outages?

Oh yeah, I'm certain that most of us here on this board have made plans for the outages. I'm just curious as to when blackouts will become the norm for everyone in America?

 

[Hooch]

The first winter I had here was a whopper. Feet of snow n bitter cold. Cold and in -20 by the chicken coop.
I kept telling myself...I wanted this adventure suck it up.
Anyways..many times it would take over a hour to get home from work. We were working 10 hour days and up the mountain it might warm up to 5 degrees by my machine. My machine doesn't work well in bitter cold so it was a fight all day with frozen wood, sluggish machines n freezing cold icy blah...
That winter really sucked.
This is before I had a decent heater in my house too. I have a wood stove but at some point I'd fall asleep n it would go out. I was figuring out my stove too. So my place would usually hover around 40 until the weekend long inferno.
One night, the power goes out about 1ish am. I've got to get up about 330ish am to get ready for work, feed animals.
The fire is barely going in the stove..I'm pretty cozy under a pile of blankets n two sleeping bags n dreading having to get up. I lay there hoping the power comes back on..about 15 minutes into this I'm thinking..**** ..I have to get up.
I stock the fire real quick, pile into my cold gear n head outside to dump the water troughs before it turns into a 70 gallon ice cube.
It was like -10 , clear star filled sky. I remember thinking at least it's pretty out as im dumping buckets of water/icey slush.
About half a hour later I'm back inside n the lights come back on.
I'm half way out of my gear n figure I either take a chance on it n go back out n refill the water or I get up in 2 hours n do it.
I went back outside n refilled everyone's water. The power stayed on too.
That night solidified my resolve to get a whole house generator.
I'm so glad I did.
I'm surprised more people dont really. I realize they are spendy but so are vacations. I have friends n neighbors who go on spendy vacations every year..some do it more than once. Some of my friends have livestock n no way to water animals or heat their homes if the power goes out for a duration here but they will spend thousands on vacations.
??

 

[Supervisor42]

I'm curious, did you get advanced notices of the outages?

Oh yeah, I'm certain that most of us here on this board have made plans for the outages. I'm just curious as to when blackouts will become the norm for everyone in America?

You keep saying "everyone".
For us, never.
We have NG gas-wells all around here and a lot of very smart, capable people that know how to make stuff work. . And they are constantly improving it.
Electric power has always been abundant, reliable, and inexpensive here.
If you read the articles, it is mostly the blue mega-cities that are in peril.
No sympathy for the California fire thing either.
A few years ago they needed some billion$ so the insurance companies wouldn't abandon them.
Their solution was to sue the power company PG&E into bankruptcy.
That was stupid.
Today their only choice is: shut off the power whenever the wind blows, or get sued again.
Hmmm.

Decisions, decisions.

 

[Chaosdawn]

I agree, we would lose power here fairly often in the past. We struggled through for a long time with a small generator that could just keep the fridge running and a couple lights. DH had to go out every hour or so to put gas in it. Last year he finally broke down and decided to get a bigger one (as I had been suggesting) so now we have one that can do the whole house as long as we don't go crazy with what we turn on, even the well pump works so we can flush the toilet! Of course we haven't lost power for more than a couple hours since we bought it.

On topic, I don't know if my state would do that and I doubt I would experience a rolling blackout where I live. Maybe in the large cities but I don't think there's enough people on the grid in my town to make a difference in what they're trying to do.

 

[dademoss]

Maybe in the large cities but I don't think there's enough people on the grid in my town to make a difference in what they're trying to do.

Who or what feeds the local "grid" infrastructure? That goes down, you do too. . TPTB protect the largest bill paying area, a big area get repairs before a smaller subset of consumers.

If we cut off 5 or 35 Podunks, we can keep Gotham City running

 

[DrJenner]

I'm curious, did you get advanced notices of the outages?

Oh yeah, I'm certain that most of us here on this board have made plans for the outages. I'm just curious as to when blackouts will become the norm for everyone in America?

We did yes, it was typically a 2-4 hour block so you would just make sure to plan stuff around it. Wasn’t a big deal as a kid really, just took preparation.

 

[Magus]

We've had rolling brown outs since 0bama killed 13 of our coal power plants somehow nobody ever got around to turning back on when that jackass left office. They've burned up my grinders, two computers and I suspect my last A/C unit. my current computer just reboots when we have one.

 

[UrbanHunter]

I am using a APC power backup on my network and my computers, I also have a monitor that pings when I get a bump (up or down) in power or power quality. I have been seeing a lot of small bumps, dropping down to 100-Volts and then bouncing up above 120 V a few seconds later, right now it is the kind of thing that makes the light flicker but I expect to see things fail prematurely like @Magus is seeing. I believe that it is an early indicator that the Grid in my area is having trouble maintaining a steady supply to the area.....

 

[Neb]

I am using a APC power backup on my network and my computers, I also have a monitor that pings when I get a bump (up or down) in power or power quality. I have been seeing a lot of small bumps, dropping down to 100-Volts and then bouncing up above 120 V a few seconds later, right now it is the kind of thing that makes the light flicker but I expect to see things fail prematurely like @Magus is seeing. I believe that it is an early indicator that the Grid in my area is having trouble maintaining a steady supply to the area.....

Those sound like brown-outs. Could be the house AC in your place or the neighbor's if connected to the same transformer as your place.

Ben

 

[Magus]

No bro, it is definitely the power levels. we have a factory within earshot, you can hear the vent fans start to drone as the power drops.

 

[Neb]

No bro, it is definitely the power levels. we have a factory within earshot, you can hear the vent fans start to drone as the power drops.

I will not argue that is a possibility but it is not the first suspect.

KISS keep it simple sir...

Suggests starting local before suggesting a systematic issue.

Rule out the house then the neighborhood, then the substation, then the grid. The latter would be indicated by sags across multiple substations.

Ben

 

[Magus]

Then its city wide.

 

[viking]

I'm curious, did you get advanced notices of the outages?

Oh yeah, I'm certain that most of us here on this board have made plans for the outages. I'm just curious as to when blackouts will become the norm for everyone in America?

I will say that the power company is consistent, they call us after the power is out and tell us the approximate time when the power will be on again.

 

[UrbanHunter]

Sorry @viking I had to laugh at the thought of them calling us. Here they don't tell you anything. If you call you will get a recording saying that the outage has been reported and an estimated time till repair.... During the planned "rolling" blackouts they reported the plan to the news agencies in the area and you knew when you were in a blackout because the lights went out. Here they believe that we are all mushrooms, they keep us in the dark and feed us BS...

 

[UrbanHunter]

This may not be the best place to post, but I have a question. How much "back-up" power do you think you need? I am not talking how much power do you use today, but more in line with how much power do you have to have to maintain a minimum existence?

I know from experience that the most common answer is it depends...
I know it depends on how your home is configured, gas heat/heat pump/wood stove, electric or gas water heater; electric or gas range, but it still vexes me, what would I need to just keep the freezers/fridges going and be able to cook?

 

[viking]

This may not be the best place to post, but I have a question. How much "back-up" power do you think you need? I am not talking how much power do you use today, but more in line with how much power do you have to have to maintain a minimum existence?

I know from experience that the most common answer is it depends...
I know it depends on how your home is configured, gas heat/heat pump/wood stove, electric or gas water heater; electric or gas range, but it still vexes me, what would I need to just keep the freezers/fridges going and be able to cook?

We've always kept our needs to a minimum, my thought was to have enough backup power for the two refrigerators and two freezers to keep them running until they were cleaned out and then shut them down and live on other stored foods that don't need cooling or freezing, basically a short period for transitioning, After the transition period, more than likely I wouldn't be able to get replacement batteries to keep the system going any longer anyway.

 

[UrbanHunter]

We've always kept our needs to a minimum, my thought was to have enough backup power for the two refrigerators and two freezers to keep them running until they were cleaned out and then shut them down and live on other stored foods that don't need cooling or freezing, basically a short period for transitioning, After the transition period, more than likely I wouldn't be able to get replacement batteries to keep the system going any longer anyway.

So 2 refrigerators and 2 Freezers, are you looking at 2,400 watts then? I am guessing that at 24V you would need 1600 AH of storage capacity minimum. How does that line up with your math?

 

[Cascadian]

We can run what we need, but we can't run the electric water heater and the well at the same time etc.
We were going to put in a 20k whole house generator in but that was too expensive. We did a 10k and I installed it with a transfer switch etc with a little help. I figured I could always go bigger someday. The generator was only about half of the overall cost.

 

[Magus]

This may not be the best place to post, but I have a question. How much "back-up" power do you think you need? I am not talking how much power do you use today, but more in line with how much power do you have to have to maintain a minimum existence?

I know from experience that the most common answer is it depends...
I know it depends on how your home is configured, gas heat/heat pump/wood stove, electric or gas water heater; electric or gas range, but it still vexes me, what would I need to just keep the freezers/fridges going and be able to cook?

How big is your fridge?
When I was on the creek, I had a bank of 4 +the main battery deep cycle 18 wheeler batteries I used the generator an hour a day to begin the regimen and tickle charged all day with a bank of 8 portable fold up construction site grade solar panels I rented for 40$ a month from the equipment rental place. It successfully ran a 3'X 5' camper fridge, a laptop, a couple of radios and an AC unit. most times with enough juice to keep the lights on as well all night, but be aware, ALL of that is low energy use "green rated" equipment. you just have to keep a passive trickle charge going, OH and a medium sized office heater in the winter. If I watched my use it would normally last the night before I had to hit the propane.
if I do it over and Might soon, I'll be adding two more deep cycle batteries and likely another smaller panel set.

 

[Caribou]

This may not be the best place to post, but I have a question. How much "back-up" power do you think you need? I am not talking how much power do you use today, but more in line with how much power do you have to have to maintain a minimum existence?

I know from experience that the most common answer is it depends...
I know it depends on how your home is configured, gas heat/heat pump/wood stove, electric or gas water heater; electric or gas range, but it still vexes me, what would I need to just keep the freezers/fridges going and be able to cook?

Honda makes a sweet 2K generator, 60db, and it runs on little gasoline. If you pair that with a battery bank and an inverter you will do well. Throw in a solar panel or a windmill...

On my boat I had my engine bank and my house bank of batteries. I could generate electricity off the engine, if it were running, a solar panel, a wind generator, and towed generator. I never ran out and I sometimes didn't run the engine for weeks.

 

[Haertig]

We haven't had any blackouts here. But yesterday seemed like a precursor. The news reported that Xcel Energy (our power company) locked people's thermostats at 86 degrees and removed all end-user control. Well, the thermostats of the people who signed up for this "service" to save a few bucks on their power bill that is. We did not sign up for this or course, but I will say it's a comfort to be surrounded by others who did. We look at them as a a bunch of mensa guinea pigs that act as a buffer to absorb the pain before it gets to us. Many of these mensa rodents probably own EV's as well, and very soon won't be able to charge them. Keeping the roads clearer for us.

 

[UrbanHunter]

We keep having "bumps", my desktop standby is telling me that they are lasting about 45 seconds.

I am going to significantly increase my "standby" power solar array by applying solar panels to my west facing basement walkout, the battery bank is directly below so it should be simple enough. I will be using the SHTF extra solar panels that I have kept in storage. If I get a couple extra bucks I may try to replace them. My outdoor battery bank is only 9 Kwh usable and I have a 2.2Kwh indoor battery bank for specialty needs. I like the idea of picking up a quiet little 2Kw generator as a cloudy day supplement.... All of my stuff is setup around an off-grid arrangement.

 

[Magus]

Same here. my computer reboots when ours hit.

 

[viking]

The last time we had a multiple day grid outage it was eight days, we learned some valuable lessons, one was that our big refrigerator was running far longer than the average time suggested by the inverter manufacture for adding up all of the loads for appliances to figure how much amp hours in batteries we needed to keep everything happily running, as it was, I ended up running a 8,500 watt generator the last day to get the refrigerators and freezers cooled down to normal. This is the reason we bought twenty-four new 210 amp hour batteries and replaced the twenty 205 AH batteries we had been using for nine years. The old system was five banks of four batteries each for 1025 amp hours, the new system is six banks of four batteries each for a total of 1260 amp hours. The old battery system was showing signs of fatigue, about six of the batteries were boiling nearly all of their electrolytes off on discharge and charging. As it is the new system of batteries has not been put to any test, that's to come.

 

[Magus]

Hit the main breaker and test it before you need it!

 

[UrbanHunter]

The last time we had a multiple day grid outage it was eight days, we learned some valuable lessons, one was that our big refrigerator was running far longer than the average time suggested by the inverter manufacture for adding up all of the loads for appliances to figure how much amp hours in batteries we needed to keep everything happily running, as it was, I ended up running a 8,500 watt generator the last day to get the refrigerators and freezers cooled down to normal. This is the reason we bought twenty-four new 210 amp hour batteries and replaced the twenty 205 AH batteries we had been using for nine years. The old system was five banks of four batteries each for 1025 amp hours, the new system is six banks of four batteries each for a total of 1260 amp hours. The old battery system was showing signs of fatigue, about six of the batteries were boiling nearly all of their electrolytes off on discharge and charging. As it is the new system of batteries has not been put to any test, that's to come.

Wow @viking that is 30,240 Watt-hrs, if you are drawing 2,400 Watts it gives you about 13 hours of battery life. You would need at least 3000 watts of solar to keep all that running (assuming that the sun shines for 10 hours every day). It sure puts everything into perspective for my thinking exercise.

 

[Magpie]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-blames-germany-west-nord-stream-1-shutdown-2022-09-07/
Things might escalate more quickly here