Focus on SHTF triggers. (Not the trigger, but the act of focusing.)

[Sourdough]

This thread is NOT about your opinion of probable SHTF triggers. Please don't go there.

It is about methods of focus. While I am 99.999% opposed to any reliance on Artificial Intelligence (AI) I suspect that (AI) would have value for creating a "short" list to look at like one daily looks at the weather forecast.

I still remember somethings that were on my short list of SHTF fears back in the mid 1950's. Nearly all seem silly now. My point is way far back we each had our individual shot list of awful things we might encounter at any moment.

As focused as I am on probable SHTF events that could affect me (directly or indirectly) I am still surprised when a new one enters my awareness. What "shocks" me is that instantly after my first noticing that new to me thing (possible trigger) I realize it has been lurking for weeks or months. I simply failed to grant it any significance.

 

[Solar Geek]

Excellent. But I never want to acess an A-i
Into my computer or phone so use it at the library? On their computers?

 

[Tirediron]

this is kind of like boiling a frog, , we get used to something as it slowly creeps in, there are a plethora of things creeping in perhaps the biggest one is sound bite thought , formulating an answer to the first 3 word in a sentence, not reading twice and answering once

 

[Sourdough]

The more I think about this, perhaps a simple algorithm could work.

 

[Tirediron]

The more I think about this, perhaps a simple algorithm could work.

Have you seen any of Clif highs stuff, he built a system to predict events from internet traffic

 

[Sourdough]

Have you seen any of Clif highs stuff, he built a system to predict events from internet traffic

No........But I am surprised there is no (known to me) algorithm that individuals can personalize. Based on my things I click on. Would need to be an accounting type list, so I could quickly (like checking the weather report) see what caught my attention.

The "sub" point of this thread is that I am my weakest priority link in my awareness. Or stated differently, I am a reluctant choke point for others intentionally focused or misfocused agenda.

I will snag/focus on any subject title with Russia in the title, over titles referencing American actions that more greatly affect me. While I feel sure this is intentional, I am not happy with my failure to protect my best interests.

There is likely a better way to communicate my point, but it escapes me currently.

 

[Alaskajohn]

Back when I was a working stiff, I got bi-weekly emails discussing medical supply chain shortages, etc, and daily summaries of trends in the health sector. I was smart enough to have these always going to my private email account so I still get them even after retireming. Every morning I sort through this along with my other emails. Long story short, there is always issues with the medical supply chain and they keep getting worse. And there is so many issues it will likely be hard to the if what I am seeing is a SHTF trigger, or simply the same bad stuff repeating itself. And this is only focused on a specific sector.

I also look at financial trends looking for triggers, but disinformation and manipulation is rampant in financial data that I trust little that I am seeing. I am watchful of changes in willingness of people/nations buy US national debt (treasury securities) as a sign of financial collapse. Again, there are a host and a lot of bad information.

Perhaps the best triggers are consumables and are they in short supply. Meat, veggies, dairy, eggs, gas, replacement parts, etc. Our JIT system is so very fragile that I would thing JIT failure would hit what I listed first and start to cascade quickly. Like medical supply chain issues, I am sure someone is tracking supply chain issues and shortages, I just don’t know enough about what is good data and what is noise.

None of this stuff is finely tuned with specific trigger points that point to something 100% predictive SHTF.

 

[Aerindel]

Great topic.

And I could see AI being really good at this....its one of the things AI excels at, pattern recognition.

What we are talking about here, is predicting the future. Something people have been trying, and failing at for all time.

I admit, I have no good system for spontaneous new triggers.

I do have a system for evaluating if known threats, can possibly be true.

Its called narrative logic and its something most people do without thinking about it.

The way it was introduced to me was as a thought problem.

Consider that there are infinite universes, each one different than ours. Some different in only the position of one atom, in one star....some so different they are in comprehensible.

In such a system, you could say ANYTHING was possible. You could never say that something was impossible, because in infinite univereses, anything you can imagine would have to exist somewhere.

Lets say there is a universe, exactly like ours, but for a fraction of a second, there is a giant ice cube in the heart of our sun.

Now we all say "Thats impossible". But WHY do we say that?

We can imagine super advanced technology, say a wormhole that teleports the ice into the heart of the star, or a shielded spaceship that can transport it there...whatever you want.

But, that would mean in THAT universe, there is wormhole technology, or spaceships that can fly into a star.....there would be a million differences.....because nothing just HAPPENS, everything is the result of a chain of events. A narrative story that could be told. Even things like an unsolved mystery....have a story. We don't KNOW the story....but we can imagine a sequence of events that lead to that.

So a universe Just.Like. Ours., but with one impossible thing....actually is impossible, because if it was just like ours, there would be no narrative to support it.

Any time we are presented with a 'what if' situation.....we can judge it based on if there is a possible narrative....that results in the unlikely event.

If there is no story....even an imaginary story, that logically could result in the thing we are predicting, we actually can judge it to be impossible, even in a vast, unknown world.

 

[UrbanHunter]

I think this is a great thread, it got me to thinking about the event triggers that I totally missed until they ran over my sleepy arse.

There are financial triggers that I missed like the dot-com bubble bust (I had been making money hand over fist, but was at a meeting with no phone and no internet when the bottom fell out)....

I totally missed the COVID-19 signs, I should have been more aware and better prepared. I was much better prepared than most when the shortages hit, but it was more by accident than by being forewarned.... I missed the trigger signs... but I was able to improvise work around(s) to not be negatively impacted.

I think that having a good honest knowledge of historical events and their triggers (warning signs) is one of the best ways to be able to recognize the triggers on the horizon as history has a way of repeating itself...

BUT Today, our news and the messaging (propaganda) is so controlled that the people who you should expect to be giving you warnings are actually trying to hide the truth to keep the status quo in place. By the time the news gets out the event triggers are actually quite old....

If you fall back to the frog in the water analogy you might think that the pot is much deeper (taller sides), the water is much more shallow (boils quicker), and there are just a lot more frogs in the pot...

It would be nice if there were a good early warning system that we could use but I don't see any real reliable system out there. So the only thing we can do is prepare a little for everything that we can think of.....

 

[elkhound]

No........But I am surprised there is no (known to me) algorithm that individuals can personalize. Based on my things I click on. Would need to be an accounting type list, so I could quickly (like checking the weather report) see what caught my attention.

Dont know enough to talk about this..but..the few things i think i know to my understanding.

Theres a prepper guy who built a super computer thingy..i dont know if you call it a computer program,algorithm or what ..but he says it runs 24/7/365 looking at wide range events in news happening all over the globe.For awhile he talked using the talking points from it daily but for a very long time he stopped doing it and turned it into a pay thing he used to make a living with.He had a huge following of people....once that happened...many many years ago...i stopped listening and for much more other reasons not talking about or listing as it doesnt matter..its just i have no knowledge as of late and cant even recall how to find him right now..it might take awhile to recall its been so long.

 

[Tirediron]

Dont know enough to talk about this..but..the few things i think i know to my understanding.

Theres a prepper guy who built a super computer thingy..i dont know if you call it a computer program,algorithm or what ..but he says it runs 24/7/365 looking at wide range events in news happening all over the globe.For awhile he talked using the talking points from it daily but for a very long time he stopped doing it and turned it into a pay thing he used to make a living with.He had a huge following of people....once that happened...many many years ago...i stopped listening and for much more other reasons not talking about or listing as it doesnt matter..its just i have no knowledge as of late and cant even recall how to find him right now..it might take awhile to recall its been so long.

Clif high's thing does as described. but he has said due to the vast amount of censorship it is far less efficient. And acording to him AI only uses the description of an article to glean information from.

 

[Aerindel]

I totally missed the COVID-19 signs, I should have been more aware and better prepared. I was much better prepared than most when the shortages hit, but it was more by accident than by being forewarned.... I missed the trigger signs... but I was able to improvise work around(s) to not be negatively impacted.

One thing I am 'proud' of, or at least view as a success.....is that on the first ever post about Covid on Survivalist Boards, a handful of comments down, I said that This was exactly the kind of thing that would blow up. I didn't know that Covid WOULD BE a big one....just that if it was a big one....it was starting the same way one would. The comment wasn't even by accident, I had actually read about the new disease the day before as I have a long running new tracker for emerging diseases.

But this wasn't so much a result of any system. Its because my prepping started primarily with pandemic as the thing to pre for, my 'scenario' back when like most people, I started as a scenario prepper. I had read a lot of books on pandemics, I had recently been to post Ebola Sierra Leone where they still have various advisory signs up.

I was pre-wired to see pandemic signs, it was my speciality. I had years of training an experience in biology, and married to one. To this day, me and my immediate family have not gotten covid.

What I totally missed, was that pro-covid activity, would become a form of political protest. If I had read 'World War Z' I would have seen it coming, but I had always blown off that book, ironically, because it was so popular, I assumed it had nothing in it of value, but It was shockingly accurate when it came to human behavior once I read it.

 

[Sourdough]

I don't think I had my head very far out of my butt when I started this thread. It has turned out fairly good and informative, zero thanks to me.

The ugly truth is "I" am my problem, in the area, of this thread subject. I sadly can't put the blame elsewhere.

I can see clearly the problem, but other forces that I don't understand, inhibit my accepting truth/reality.

In the end I am compelled to reluctantly accept that I have been seduced or worse captured, and shamefully powerless. This "SUPER" pisses me off, at myself.

 

[Caribou]

I prep for as many things as I can. Some of them will happen. Some of them might happen, and some of them could happen. We all know what they are so there is no benefit in listing them. I prep for as many things as I can because it is the thing you are not prepped for that will bite you in your butt. I don't go to stupid places and do stupid things. I still pack. That is because stupid things come to unexpected places. All prepping is like that to me. The more I prep for the more I think about being ready. The more I think about being ready the faster I will respond when the unanticipated happens. Think of it as exercising the prep muscle. It is not unlike the weightlifter lifting a car from the child. He doesn't lift cars everyday but he prepares his muscles and can respond to the unexpected.

My volcano preps, my nuclear preps, and my biohazard preps have a lot of crossover. The mindset can adapt to more areas than I can imagine. Threads like this hone that mindset.