In 500 years

[elkhound]

I mentioned this thread idea last week or there about. So decided to post this morning.

So what do you see in 500 years from now in a post industrial society or will it not be a post industrial society,either way...what do you envision the world looking like.This can be in your area specifically or global outlook or both.

500 years ago we were sailing ships and they could have never imagined the things we have now. Also its pretty clear in the last 100-135 years we have depleted various resources that will never ever be replaced again.Another example was when U.S. was first explored the one thing they were after back then was the big tall straight white pine for ship masts. Europe had depleted most of the trees that would make them. They couldnt have merchant ships nor the many war ships used back then.

Anyhow...what do you see.

 

[Hooch]

How fun..I'll have to ponder this for a few..

 

[Morgan101]

I would predict the colonization of what is now outer space. Earth is a finite planet. As mentioned, many natural resources are depleted, and cannot be replaced. With continued population growth and resource depletion unless there is a drastic change humankind will have to relocate.

 

[joel]

We will be ruled by Cyborg or AI or we all will be Cyborgs.

 

[Cascadian]

I imagine by then they will have disposed of all of the strong willed and and free thinking bloodlines. Everyone will be one color worshipping one god. There will be no war since there will only be one government. It will be wonderful.

 

[Magus]

https://www.homesteadingforum.org/threads/homesteading-in-the-year-2500.19033/
Pretty much the book I wrote. I see corporate greed going nuts, a budding star empire, a dying earth, alien contact and a return to simpler lives elsewhere in the galaxy. the early decades of transhumanism will be in full swing with genetically modified soldiers and mnemonic skill and memory implants. I also foresee a return to spirituality and empathy eventually.

 

[HippoTwilight]

Within the next 500 years, I fully expect The Expanse (TV show) to become reality.

 

[Caribou]

We will have used most of the gas, oil, and coal we currently have. New discoveries will keep us moving. New technology will allow us to exploit the once dry wells. Methane will be developed in its deep ocean ice fields providing a few hundred more years of energy.

Putting all the CO2 and water back into the air from fossil fuel combustion has greened the planet and caused deserts to shrink.

 

[Aerindel]

I think the year 2500 will look more like the year 1500 than it does the year 2000.

 

[sonya123]

in 500 years we will all be dead
the planet is going to be unlivable and resemble Mars or something

 

[FarmOR]

"if man is still alive, if woman can survive? They will thrive..."

The further out the prediction, the greater the error?

I see a post apocalypse. Renewed. Everything is cyclical. There's evidence of this historically before history?

Some great cataclysmic event; global thermostat nuclear war or a dang rogue asteroid. Civilization is destroyed as a whole. What few survivors remain will start out back to basics. Their grand children will think that grandpa lost his marbles telling stories about computers and artificial intelligence and what not. So far gone that they can't relate to their reality.

"Pappy, is this plant edible?"

"don't touch that! It's forbidden fruit!"

 

[Jerry D Young]

I believe, if the total collapse occurs soon, that there will be fairly quick die-off of human life on the planet. The survivors will make it through the initial tough times and individuals, families, and other small groups will hold on and then start rebuilding their local area. As more and more do so, larger groups, still with highly independent control of their own assets, will form, as durable infrastructure begins to disappear and people realize how much easier life is with at least something similar, and begin to rebuild large local areas and then regional areas.

While I do not believe that it is possible to revert back to the 1800s, 1700s, 1600s, or 1500s in the way that some have postulated. Once created, most of the information and techniques to accomplish things will still be around. Electricity, both AC and DC. Computers. Air conditioning. Paved roads. Bridges. With electricity, computers, and the ability to build roads and most importantly bridges, a set of regional societies will again form into a national society.

I do believe it will be based around the constitution, probably re-written to incorporate what we have learned are the weaknesses in the original. Those being many of the limits of human understanding and the propensity of humans to do only as much as they need to in order to have the best life possible. Hopefully, the safeguards in the new constitution will make sure that terms such as "We hold these truths to be self-evident" are given better explanations because currently, far too many people do not see these truths as truths at all. An actual definition of 'infringed'. Actually, a full dictionary or some type of list of all key words used in any document.

I think the process will take about 300 years, give or take. During that time, with the use of some old technology, much of which will updated and modernized, the rebuilding will go relatively smoothly and quickly. Technologies, inventions, and concepts that were ignored or suppressed beginning in the late 1800s, with one example being Nikola Tesla and many of his inventions. There are many others. With the roads having fallen into bad shape, and especially bridges, the construction of vacuum-based dirigibles and the use of directed force propulsion systems will allow transport without need for roads as that and many other things are built by those that have a good library and the willingness to look beyond the old traditional ways of doing things blindly.

With, hopefully, the new government and national psyche of the citizens that have been born since whatever happened took place, and what things were like prior were taught to the children as they grow to maturity, will be far more stable and will be able to understand how society fell apart before and will do everything they can to see that it does not happen again. They will be far more likely to nip anything that tries to crop up in the bud by showing what happened before.

With the acceptance and use of technologies that might be centuries old but are working just fine with the application of knowledge, materials, and techniques now available, the reconstruction and development of the nation will start slowly but then will begin to flourish as more and more people begin working together for the same goals.

In the same manner, during the next 200 years or so, directed force 'engines' will be attached to recovered and refurbished nuclear submarines for the first few flights off earth. Once proven, purpose-built space ships will begin to travel further and further out. Mining of the resources available in space will take place and communities will begin to develop on suitable planets, moons, asteroids, and purpose-built planetoids.

Five hundred years in the future humans will be amongst the stars, expanding our civilization, concepts, ideas, and everything else to wherever we can get to and survive.

I think we could already be there if so many inventions, ideas, methods, and concepts had not been suppressed by those that are currently orchestrating what is going on right now around the world.

Just my rather fanciful, rambling, and somewhat optimistic opinion.



Jerry D Young
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and always remember TANSTAAFL
("There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch" Manny, from The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress by Robert A Heinlein)

 

[Hardcalibres]

I believe, if the total collapse occurs soon, that there will be fairly quick die-off of human life on the planet. The survivors will make it through the initial tough times and individuals, families, and other small groups will hold on and then start rebuilding their local area. As more and more do so, larger groups, still with highly independent control of their own assets, will form, as durable infrastructure begins to disappear and people realize how much easier life is with at least something similar, and begin to rebuild large local areas and then regional areas.

While I do not believe that it is possible to revert back to the 1800s, 1700s, 1600s, or 1500s in the way that some have postulated. Once created, most of the information and techniques to accomplish things will still be around. Electricity, both AC and DC. Computers. Air conditioning. Paved roads. Bridges. With electricity, computers, and the ability to build roads and most importantly bridges, a set of regional societies will again form into a national society.

I do believe it will be based around the constitution, probably re-written to incorporate what we have learned are the weaknesses in the original. Those being many of the limits of human understanding and the propensity of humans to do only as much as they need to in order to have the best life possible. Hopefully, the safeguards in the new constitution will make sure that terms such as "We hold these truths to be self-evident" are given better explanations because currently, far too many people do not see these truths as truths at all. An actual definition of 'infringed'. Actually, a full dictionary or some type of list of all key words used in any document.

I think the process will take about 300 years, give or take. During that time, with the use of some old technology, much of which will updated and modernized, the rebuilding will go relatively smoothly and quickly. Technologies, inventions, and concepts that were ignored or suppressed beginning in the late 1800s, with one example being Nikola Tesla and many of his inventions. There are many others. With the roads having fallen into bad shape, and especially bridges, the construction of vacuum-based dirigibles and the use of directed force propulsion systems will allow transport without need for roads as that and many other things are built by those that have a good library and the willingness to look beyond the old traditional ways of doing things blindly.

With, hopefully, the new government and national psyche of the citizens that have been born since whatever happened took place, and what things were like prior were taught to the children as they grow to maturity, will be far more stable and will be able to understand how society fell apart before and will do everything they can to see that it does not happen again. They will be far more likely to nip anything that tries to crop up in the bud by showing what happened before.

With the acceptance and use of technologies that might be centuries old but are working just fine with the application of knowledge, materials, and techniques now available, the reconstruction and development of the nation will start slowly but then will begin to flourish as more and more people begin working together for the same goals.

In the same manner, during the next 200 years or so, directed force 'engines' will be attached to recovered and refurbished nuclear submarines for the first few flights off earth. Once proven, purpose-built space ships will begin to travel further and further out. Mining of the resources available in space will take place and communities will begin to develop on suitable planets, moons, asteroids, and purpose-built planetoids.

Five hundred years in the future humans will be amongst the stars, expanding our civilization, concepts, ideas, and everything else to wherever we can get to and survive.

I think we could already be there if so many inventions, ideas, methods, and concepts had not been suppressed by those that are currently orchestrating what is going on right now around the world.

Just my rather fanciful, rambling, and somewhat optimistic opinion.



Jerry D Young
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and always remember TANSTAAFL
("There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch" Manny, from The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress by Robert A Heinlein)

Good to see you posting here Jerry.

You should do more of that.

This forum has a lower post count than some other bigger ones we both know of, but overall it is much less cynical.

 

[Aerindel]

While I do not believe that it is possible to revert back to the 1800s, 1700s, 1600s, or 1500s in the way that some have postulated

I think it may actually be much much worse.....most people now have lost the knowledge and techniques that people had during those times. Most of our technology, to most people is that technology indistinguishable from magic that was predicted. I read somewhere that something like 30% of Gen Z have never started a fire. Fire....we are losing fire as a tool.....overall I think we are far less of a technologically capable society than we where even 50 years ago.

We may rebuild rapidly....but I fear that now there are missing links in the tech tree.....such as easily available surface petroleum and coal.....we will never get back to where we are now. Assuming now is the peak, which I'm not even sure of.

Or not, there may be paths from say, medieval water and wind power, direct to solar, without having to pass through fossil fuel. Or maybe we spend 100 thousand years in selective breeding and reach a far advanced state not even based on technology as would recognize it.

But I don't take that for granted.

I don't think there is manifest destiny for humans. Our current state could easily be a temporary anomaly, a blip in a 20 million year or so history of humanity that otherwise exists as simple agrarians.

 

[Magus]

I think the year 2500 will look more like the year 1500 than it does the year 2000.

Yes, but with lasers!

 

[Aerindel]

Yes, but with lasers!

I actually agree with this in principle. This is why I said more like, than like.

I could easily see medieval serfs plowing there fields with oxen during the day, and reading about our time at night on their great grandfathers ipad.

Or battles where troops pull laser cannons with horses to attack castles.

 

[Alaskajohn]

I believe, if the total collapse occurs soon, that there will be fairly quick die-off of human life on the planet. The survivors will make it through the initial tough times and individuals, families, and other small groups will hold on and then start rebuilding their local area. As more and more do so, larger groups, still with highly independent control of their own assets, will form, as durable infrastructure begins to disappear and people realize how much easier life is with at least something similar, and begin to rebuild large local areas and then regional areas.

While I do not believe that it is possible to revert back to the 1800s, 1700s, 1600s, or 1500s in the way that some have postulated. Once created, most of the information and techniques to accomplish things will still be around. Electricity, both AC and DC. Computers. Air conditioning. Paved roads. Bridges. With electricity, computers, and the ability to build roads and most importantly bridges, a set of regional societies will again form into a national society.

I do believe it will be based around the constitution, probably re-written to incorporate what we have learned are the weaknesses in the original. Those being many of the limits of human understanding and the propensity of humans to do only as much as they need to in order to have the best life possible. Hopefully, the safeguards in the new constitution will make sure that terms such as "We hold these truths to be self-evident" are given better explanations because currently, far too many people do not see these truths as truths at all. An actual definition of 'infringed'. Actually, a full dictionary or some type of list of all key words used in any document.

I think the process will take about 300 years, give or take. During that time, with the use of some old technology, much of which will updated and modernized, the rebuilding will go relatively smoothly and quickly. Technologies, inventions, and concepts that were ignored or suppressed beginning in the late 1800s, with one example being Nikola Tesla and many of his inventions. There are many others. With the roads having fallen into bad shape, and especially bridges, the construction of vacuum-based dirigibles and the use of directed force propulsion systems will allow transport without need for roads as that and many other things are built by those that have a good library and the willingness to look beyond the old traditional ways of doing things blindly.

With, hopefully, the new government and national psyche of the citizens that have been born since whatever happened took place, and what things were like prior were taught to the children as they grow to maturity, will be far more stable and will be able to understand how society fell apart before and will do everything they can to see that it does not happen again. They will be far more likely to nip anything that tries to crop up in the bud by showing what happened before.

With the acceptance and use of technologies that might be centuries old but are working just fine with the application of knowledge, materials, and techniques now available, the reconstruction and development of the nation will start slowly but then will begin to flourish as more and more people begin working together for the same goals.

In the same manner, during the next 200 years or so, directed force 'engines' will be attached to recovered and refurbished nuclear submarines for the first few flights off earth. Once proven, purpose-built space ships will begin to travel further and further out. Mining of the resources available in space will take place and communities will begin to develop on suitable planets, moons, asteroids, and purpose-built planetoids.

Five hundred years in the future humans will be amongst the stars, expanding our civilization, concepts, ideas, and everything else to wherever we can get to and survive.

I think we could already be there if so many inventions, ideas, methods, and concepts had not been suppressed by those that are currently orchestrating what is going on right now around the world.

Just my rather fanciful, rambling, and somewhat optimistic opinion.



Jerry D Young
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and always remember TANSTAAFL
("There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch" Manny, from The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress by Robert A Heinlein)

Jerry,

Super glad to see you posting here. I would like to think the future state of things will evolve as you describe. I am fearful the transition from the present state to the future you describe will be horrifying and unforgiving. While I do envision that recovery as you describe will happen over time, I am doubtful man will evolve away from territorialism and the struggles that come with this. I envision tension between communities much like medieval days. But I hope I am wrong and you are right.

Thanks for your post and for the OPs post. Made me think a bit more than I wanted to this early morning.

 

[viking]

I would predict the colonization of what is now outer space. Earth is a finite planet. As mentioned, many natural resources are depleted, and cannot be replaced. With continued population growth and resource depletion unless there is a drastic change humankind will have to relocate.

I remember seeing science magazines probably from the 60's , which was the beginnings of space exploration, showing huge ring space stations on the covers with statements that this was the answer for the future, farming in space and my thought was, fine you scientists have given up on solving the problems on the earth, what makes you think those problems won't follow you out to these farm satellites. I always thought what they were pushing was rather arrogant and that they were trying to escape giving up that they didn't know how to solve the problems, in other words they had no hope for the future.

 

[Jerry D Young]

The biggest thing, I believe, will be the fact that our infrastructure will be gone and the infrastructures that were in place in previous centuries will not be around either. We cannot revert to those times because, despite most peoples' beliefs, we did not live without any infrastructure, even during the days before independence and days after independence.

During the westward expansion, manufactured items, many from Europe, were transported to towns and homes at the leading edges of travels to the west coast.

I mean, after all, Marco Polo helped get trade started between the Far East and Europe centuries ago. We were getting spices from thousands of miles away as routine purchases in the 1830s.

We will not have any of that. Not until entrepreneurs that understand such things get trade routes re-established and the sources of various products again begin to produce them using somewhat modified old technology.

A new, hopefully improved, infrastructure will emerge as time passes and things first settle down, and then begin to improve.

Just my opinion.

Jerry D Young
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and always remember TANSTAAFL
("There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch" Manny, from The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress by Robert A Heinlein)

 

[Biggkidd]

I'm not so sure the earth will survive modern mankind's manipulations for another 500 years.

For the most part I'm sure we're all old enough to have experienced a tire throw a weight and be majorly out of balance to the point of not really being drivable. Well I think China with the help of the US gov has done this very thing to the earth. When they moved all that steel / iron from here to China to build the three gorges dam they took hundreds of billions of tons of material and moved it almost opposite of where it came from and that's just metal weight. Then on top of that you have trillions of yards of concrete then once again on top of that the displaced water the dam is now holding back is another huge pile of weight moved from where it was to where it currently is. All of this has added up to enough weight being shifted to change the center of gravity of the earth. As we all know the poles have been moving faster and faster ever since they finished construction. Now you may ask what this has to do with the earth surviving mankind. My answer is that once I had a 35/12.50-15 tire that took 5 ounces of balance weight all in one spot. That weight flew off while driving down the highway at about 65mph one day and the truck started shaking and rattling and pulling itself all over three lanes of traffic. Before I could get off the road and stopped the wheel bearings and wheel studs took a beating. Next thing I knew the studs started popping and then the entire wheel and tire came off. This all happened in the space of seconds. We KNOW the wheel weight came off first because it came up through the inner fender of the right rear wheel and I saw it sticking through the metal in the rear view mirror. Then things got nasty...

 

[Neb]

The biggest thing, I believe, will be the fact that our infrastructure will be gone and the infrastructures that were in place in previous centuries will not be around either. We cannot revert to those times because, despite most peoples' beliefs, we did not live without any infrastructure, even during the days before independence and days after independence.

During the westward expansion, manufactured items, many from Europe, were transported to towns and homes at the leading edges of travels to the west coast.

I mean, after all, Marco Polo helped get trade started between the Far East and Europe centuries ago. We were getting spices from thousands of miles away as routine purchases in the 1830s.

We will not have any of that. Not until entrepreneurs that understand such things get trade routes re-established and the sources of various products again begin to produce them using somewhat modified old technology.

A new, hopefully improved, infrastructure will emerge as time passes and things first settle down, and then begin to improve.

Just my opinion.

Jerry D Young
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and always remember TANSTAAFL
("There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch" Manny, from The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress by Robert A Heinlein)

Canals were a big factor in moving goods. They could be revived. Similarly with locks and dams. Railroad right of ways should also survive.

I think a target of about 1860 level technology is very doable provided hard copy books are available.

Ben

 

[Magus]

I actually agree with this in principle. This is why I said more like, than like.

I could easily see medieval serfs plowing there fields with oxen during the day, and reading about our time at night on their great grandfathers ipad.

Or battles where troops pull laser cannons with horses to attack castles.

Poke around in my book, we're not far off. There is a chapter where a town hires a mercenary to protect its water and women from raiders and the law in the civilized areas is judge, jury and executioner. Kind of Mad Max meets star wars with a shot of gunsmoke. Firefly was almost identical minus the aliens.

 

[Morgan101]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Earth was in the midst of a Nuclear Winter in 500 years.

I could not find an estimate of how long a nuclear winter would last. I know there are many contributing factors, but has anybody ever seen an estimate?

 

[Aerindel]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Earth was in the midst of a Nuclear Winter in 500 years.

I could not find an estimate of how long a nuclear winter would last. I know there are many contributing factors, but has anybody ever seen an estimate?

Well, it was pretty much disproven it would even happen, mostly just commie propaganda trying to convince us nobody can win a nuclear war...just because THEY know they can't win one....so....not sure how to say how long it would last. Its not a worry of mine. I doubt it would even register compared to the rest of the war.

Volcanic induced winters usually only are measurable for a couple years. Dust just doesn't hang in the air for all that long before falling out, getting washed out, etc.

 

[Hardcalibres]

Well, it was pretty much disproven it would even happen, mostly just commie propaganda trying to convince us nobody can win a nuclear war...just because THEY know they can't win one....so....not sure how to say how long it would last. Its not a worry of mine. I doubt it would even register compared to the rest of the war.

Volcanic induced winters usually only are measurable for a couple years. Dust just doesn't hang in the air for all that long before falling out, getting washed out, etc.

Correct.

The analysis that led to the idea of nuclear winter was a good example of worst case scenario stacking.

If you do a complex analysis which requires a lot of assumptions, then you can adopt the worst case assumption for a dozen or more sequentially adopted parameters. When you do that, you can prove that mouse flatulence is going to kill us all.

The problem is scientists (or is it pseudo scientists?) adopting a contention based upon philosophy or politics and then conducting a rigged analysis to prove that contention.

 

[Aerindel]

The problem is scientists (or is it pseudo scientists?) adopting a contention based upon philosophy or politics and then conducting a rigged analysis to prove that contention.

Especially when you have an unholy combination of Russian dis-information, and American anti-war college socialism working on the same side.

The world looked something like this 225 million years ago, and would have been perfectly habitable by humans.

Nothing WE are going to do to it in 500, will make uninhabitable.

If a disaster kills 99% of humans....that still leaves 70 million of us.

We know that previous disasters have reduced our population to as little as 10,000....and we got over that, with no technology.

We will get over whatever is next.....as a species.

Civilization, especially modern civilization, maybe not.

 

[Magus]

Chornobyl and Fukushima both prove Mother Earth can snap back in short order even after a MASSIVE dose of radiation. The funny thing, animals can live full lives there, but we can't because while old age has got them, we have just built up to a life dose.

The meek might just inherit the earth after all.

 

[FarmOR]

This conversation brings to mind Giligans Island.

Pretty tough for the professor to make an iPhone out of a coconut?

 

[Amish Heart]

As funny as they were, they were their own worst enemy most of the time.

 

[Aerindel]

This conversation brings to mind Giligans Island.

Pretty tough for the professor to make an iPhone out of a coconut?

As funny as that is.....its a pretty good metaphor for my concerns.

As a species, we did more or less, build an iphone from a coconut......so its tempting to think we could do it again and faster now that we know about iphones.

But not if the first time through, we used up all the coconuts and the island we are stuck on, no longer has coconuts.