There is "actual" reality, and then there is your "Chosen" fantasy.

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Selfish bias?

"A hundred different farmers will farm a hundred different ways"
Told to me by the county extension agent, whom I consulted to plan my next no till planting.

How to cope? 3d's: data driven decisions. Drilled down deep.
 
As an enlightened person once said: "One can be blissfully ignorant or painfully aware." :confused:

Most young folks today would rather keep their heads in their idiotic devices & ignore the harsh reality... :oops:

The U.S. is under multi-pronged assault, and Big Tech is one of those prongs... used to distract & indoctrinate our youth. :mad:
 
A cut n paste from a news letter from Paradigm Press seems appropriate.

"
...

Mankind confronts a choice, argued George Orwell in 1984. He must choose between freedom and happiness.

And the mass of men prefer happiness to freedom:

The choice for mankind lay between freedom and happiness and that, for the great bulk of mankind, happiness was better.

The great bulk of men seek the peace and contentment of herd living — of life in a crowd.

The man truly divorced from the social influence is a man truly exceptional.

Freedom is too hot for most hands, as Mencken described it — or too cold for most spines, as Nietzsche described it.

Either way… freedom runs to temperatures too extreme for most constitutions.

Here we do not judge. Nor do we evaluate or condemn. We merely describe, describe a phenomenon.

The crowd offers safety. Numerical strength. Solidarity. Companionship. Reassurance.
...
"

Ben
 
What's the reason, Sourdough?
 
Is your question in regards to a specific concern @Sourdough? Do you have an example in mind?

I think generally speaking change is hard, people fear change. There is a sense of safety in what we know and in what we can expect, whether that sense of safety is warranted or not is a different matter entirely. But that sense has huge power in people's lives.

I tend to think most people are doing the best they can with what they have and what they know.

The world has changed so rapidly in the past 100 years, it's not surprising many people have become detached from the ways of old and caught up in that whirlwind.
 
Some people choose to live back away from the idiots and try to enjoy life more like it probably was in the 50s-60s yet with things like cell phones and laptops but no TV or much interaction with the outside world otherwise. Oops can't forget free deliveries in a week or two.
 
We are (potentially) living in a second Renaissance? The "information age". Problem is that the crooks and spinsters know how easy it is to share information?

One of my favorite moments of addressing this problem comes from Charlie Munger responding to a question about " hidden fraud".

I don't recall his actual wording, but to attempt a paraphrase goes something like: if it's too good to be true it probably is. Experience gives you the ability to understand what is likely and what is not. Red flags go up when something goes beyond that realm of reality.

We're exposed to misinformation and information every day. How do you manage that? I Fancy myself a continuous learner. I force myself to tune into opposing view points. It's extremely easy for me since I'm leaning conservative and the overwhelming majority of "information" my entire life has had a liberal bias. So I tune in liberal views, but I have a quick skeptical and opposite view point of anything and everything.

Another Charlie Munger tip? "Always invert"?
 
Festus from Gunsmoke: " yessir! I'm glad that I never did learn to read them writings! Cause how do you know that the fella that's doing the writing is writing the right writing? Could be y'all been reading the wrong writing? Sure saves me a lot of headaches! "
 
Kids today face a lot of challenges: they're being indoctrinated in leftist academic institutions, bombarded with leftist propaganda in the media & that Hollywood $h!thole, lured by Big Tech devices which facilitate the first two prongs of that multi-pronged assault I mentioned earlier... then there's the ZOG itself, which is NOTHING like what our forefathers envisioned when they set up this nation. It ain't easy to distinguish good from bad, especially for a kid who is trying to "fit in" with his or her "peer group."

But again, the adults have NO EXCUSE, they should be smart enough to figure out what is happening in our country and in this world. Sadly, many are NOT smart enough, or they lack the GUTS and INTEGRITY to stand against this EVIL... maybe they're just spineless cowards, or "ostriches" with their heads stuck in the sand. I forget who said that the only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing... but that hand was exactly right. And it's easy to get discouraged in this modern world too, I get that part.

I stood against this evil gubmint corruption when I was falsely charged... I had no choice, and I knew I was innocent of the fake charges, but I still lost six months of my life fighting the good fight against the dirty swine. And I hammered back at 'em too, spreading the word far & wide across the web about the level of corruption in our gubmint. I also helped shoot down the scrub queer D.A.'s bid to become mayor of San Diego, though the fraudulent ZOG still managed to stick another scrub queer in office, some worthless homo who has done nothing good for the City of San Diego.

A common tactic, since the dirty globalist swine who control the puppets in office know that homosexuality is a divisive issue... and their whole intent is to dismantle this country without firing a shot. To "divide and conquer" as Caesar did back in the days of the Roman Empire. Programmed for decades by the swine to bash Conservative Whitey, ethnics & queers are nothing but TOOLS, and TRAITOROUS TOOLS at that... which is why none will EVER be allowed into my life. I also reckon that most (if not ALL) of the queers attained office through FRAUDULENT MEANS.

Would I go back and do things exactly the same way when I was falsely charged? OH, HELL YEAH!!! Because no good will EVER come from simply ROLLING OVER & TAKING IT... and freedom isn't free, sometimes ya gotta take a stand against the evil corruption, even if it costs you six months in jail. At least I bashed the scum involved, and BASHED 'EM HARD, lol... and when the SHTF, if it ever does, those same scumbags will undoubtedly be some of the first traitors to be targeted by conservative patriots. Their TRAITOROUS TRANSGRESSIONS shall be REMEMBERED.
 
I'm very thankful that having kids just never did work out for us. I'd me in jail or in solitary confinement if I had to deal with the people trying to teach my kids the BS that is being pushed on them today. I know me and I'd be one pissed off SOB the first time my kid came home with a book teaching him how to have anal sex for fun (which is what a friend of mine had come home with his kid).

Anyway, I live in reality which is much more interesting than anything I could try to come up with.
 
Sourdough said:
Why do we choose delusion, over the uglier yet mitigable truth.
Click to expand...

I think because some people that are spreading "the truth", aren't necessarily doing so. They just think they are. And they can sometimes become a complete turn-off in their efforts. So they end up being ignored or questioned by others, who then seek out their own facts to determine the truth. This pisses off the "truth tellers" to no end, resulting in derogatory and condescending terms start being used to describe their non-believers. Which further perpetuates the divide from the "truth tellers".

One man's truth is another man's delusion. And one man's delusion is another man's truth. Not immediately embracing someone else's "truth" does not make one "delusional". These days, it's pretty easy to shoot a school bus sized hole through the "truth" as told by anybody, of any persuasion, if you just open your eyes long enough to take a look. So it's easy to become a cynic regarding everything. That describes me. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but those are all just as worthless as my own opinion.
 
Sounds like a good time to read "The Art of War" by Sun Tsu, we might be able to counter some of the B.S. that's being thrown at us and even "Monkey Wrench" what they are trying to do to us, we finally got the book last time we were in Costco. It's a must read for some military leaders.
 
Sourdough said:
Why do we choose delusion, over the uglier yet mitigable truth.
Click to expand...

Sometimes it’s hard to distinguish between delusion and illusion.

“Cold hearted orb that rules the night
Removes the colors from our sight
Red is gray and yellow white
But we decide which is right
And which is an illusion”

The Moody Blues.

The above really describes self delusion and we don’t get to chose our own set of rules and facts. There is an absolute and no matter how we spine it, we can’t simply make up our own world. It’s gotten a lot worse since this likely acid influenced lyrics were written. A lot worse.
 
This might mesh a bit with the topic: Jim Quinn: It's Not A Lie If You Believe It | ZeroHedge

To try to answer your original question, SD: why do people prefer pretty delusion over ugly truth might be a combination of normalcy bias and fear. Normalcy bias confuses many people: they assume everything is as it should be because it's always the same. Fear creeps in when they realize things aren't exactly normal. To think that those unshakable powers - government, military, central banks, health care, etc. - might actually be working against the people is too terrifying a notion to entertain for long. So they don't. They dismiss it, and they have no shortage of neighbors who do likewise. An echo chamber forms, and now anyone who thinks there's a problem is a conspiracy theorist.
 
Normalcy bias may indeed be real. But so is abnormalcy bias. Take for example the claim that the vaccines are poisons that were developed to cull the population by killing people off. This is a common claim, even on these forums. But I have not see any evidence provided to support this claim. The closest I have seen are some claims of excess deaths. But there is nothing tying those excess deaths to the vaccines other than speculation and theories. And one could just as easily speculate that the excess deaths are being caused by asymptomatic covid infections that the affected people never knew they had. No discussion of how many people, across the globe, would have to be in on the killer drug thing, and coordinating on it, while remaining totally secretive and silent about the plan. Something like this would have to have a ton of people in on the drug development, distribution and other logistics, and injecting it into unknowing people. I personally can see no reason why anyone would believe this claim, other than an echo chamber that was created by abnormalcy bias.

So it's really a double edged sword. Some people want things to be normal, so they may not see signs of abnormalcy. On the other hand, some people want things to be abnormal, so they see signs of maliciousness around every corner. Each group sees the other group as the ones who are blinded by their bias.
 
Haertig said:
Normalcy bias may indeed be real. But so is abnormalcy bias. Take for example the claim that the vaccines are poisons that were developed to cull the population by killing people off. This is a common claim, even on these forums. But I have not see any evidence provided to support this claim. The closest I have seen are some claims of excess deaths. But there is nothing tying those excess deaths to the vaccines other than speculation and theories. And one could just as easily speculate that the excess deaths are being caused by asymptomatic covid infections that the affected people never knew they had. No discussion of how many people, across the globe, would have to be in on the killer drug thing, and coordinating on it, while remaining totally secretive and silent about the plan. Something like this would have to have a ton of people in on the drug development, distribution and other logistics, and injecting it into unknowing people. I personally can see no reason why anyone would believe this claim, other than an echo chamber that was created by abnormalcy bias.

So it's really a double edged sword. Some people want things to be normal, so they may not see signs of abnormalcy. On the other hand, some people want things to be abnormal, so they see signs of maliciousness around every corner. Each group sees the other group as the ones who are blinded by their bias.
Click to expand...
Fair enough!

So let's define what the delusion is and what the truth is. Then we can determine where we are as individuals in the equation.

Sourdough, you're up!
 
bkt said:
Sourdough, you're up!
Click to expand...
In the wonderful "MOODY BLUES" classic NIGHTS in WHITH SATIN, is my favorite line, "Just what the Truth is I can't say anymore". The older I get the more foggy TRUTH is.
 
Sourdough said:
In the wonderful "MOODY BLUES" classic NIGHTS in WHITH SATIN, is my favorite line, "Just what the Truth is I can't say anymore". The older I get the more foggy TRUTH is.
Click to expand...
Well, apparently you knew what it was when you started this thread. I was just hoping to understand what's truth and what's b.s. in order to tease apart why and how people act they way they do.
 
bkt said:
Well, apparently you knew what it was when you started this thread. I was just hoping to understand what's truth and what's b.s. in order to tease apart why and how people act they way they do.
Click to expand...

What is truth?", of Latin Quid est veritas? In it, Pontius Pilate questions Jesus' claim that he is "witness to the truth" (John 18:37).

That question has been around for ages.

Socrates explored that idea in his allegory of the cave see here.

We all have own truths about things about things that can't be measured.

Ben
 
I think today people just want to believe that everything is under control. To face reality just brings too much into question, and that is too much for most modern people to deal with.
 
Haertig said:
Normalcy bias may indeed be real. But so is abnormalcy bias. Take for example the claim that the vaccines are poisons that were developed to cull the population by killing people off. This is a common claim, even on these forums. But I have not see any evidence provided to support this claim. The closest I have seen are some claims of excess deaths. But there is nothing tying those excess deaths to the vaccines other than speculation and theories. And one could just as easily speculate that the excess deaths are being caused by asymptomatic covid infections that the affected people never knew they had. No discussion of how many people, across the globe, would have to be in on the killer drug thing, and coordinating on it, while remaining totally secretive and silent about the plan. Something like this would have to have a ton of people in on the drug development, distribution and other logistics, and injecting it into unknowing people. I personally can see no reason why anyone would believe this claim, other than an echo chamber that was created by abnormalcy bias.

So it's really a double edged sword. Some people want things to be normal, so they may not see signs of abnormalcy. On the other hand, some people want things to be abnormal, so they see signs of maliciousness around every corner. Each group sees the other group as the ones who are blinded by their bias.
Click to expand...

But as people like me prove:

Has Abnormalcy Bias does not equal Believes in Conspiracy Theories

I have frequently posted against belief in popular conspiracy theories repeatedly stated as fact here.


Abnormalcy Bias means you look at everything and think "What can go wrong with that?" and then we conclude "It is just a matter of time before that fails". When those things do fail, we sort of expected that to happen, so we are not surprised.

Normalcy Bias means people look at things and never even think about how vulnerable to failure it might be. When failures in such systems occur, normalcy bias makes people fail to comprehend what is happening.


I am not the only one among us that has strong abnormalcy bias and yet little belief in conspiracy theories.......and I assess there are many people who hang out in this and other survival forums, that spend a lot of time posting about conspiracies and little time actually prepping - so it may be that they do not actually have much in the way of abnormalcy bias.
 
Hardcalibres said:
Abnormalcy Bias means you look at everything and think "What can go wrong with that?" and then we conclude "It is just a matter of time before that fails". When those things do fail, we sort of expected that to happen, so we are not surprised.
Click to expand...
And excellent point! And by this definition, I have an exceptionally strong abnormalcy bias. My family often claims that I am constantly pointing out things that can go wrong. Which I admit, I do. They say, "You always bring up the negatives!"

But as I attempt to view myself through the eyes of fellow forum members here, I would expect that most here would tag me with a normalcy bias, not an abnormalcy bias. And I think this is probably because I do not agree with popular conspiracy theories. I require some evidence before I jump on a bandwagon. Or, something has to match what my personal experiences have taught me, for me to jump on that bandwagon. For example, I believe Joe Biden has dementia. But I have no proof of that. Yet, I believe it. That is because my own mother had dementia. So did my uncle. So did my wife's aunt. And because they all lived in memory care facilities at the end of their lives, I got to be among many other people with dementia when I went to visit. So although I have no solid evidence (medical tests) to prove that Joe Biden has dementia, I know that he does. He's not just stupid (although he may be), it's dementia that we see manifesting itself in his behavior. My life experiences tell me so.

Also, a conspiracy theory has to make sense for me to start believing it, or even start researching it on the way to potentially believing it. An example of this: The theory that pharmaceutical companies are making poison vaccines. That makes utterly zero sense. Why would they nuke their profits by killing off the very people who take the vaccines and thus support them monetarily? They're supposed to be money grabbing greedy companies aren't they? That "kill our customers who are our cash cows" strategy wouldn't even make sense to someone in Biden's condition. So I'm not on the bandwagon for the poison vaccine conspiracy theory.

I would much rather for things to be normal than abnormal. But that does not mean that I don't worry about the abnormal. On the contrary - I probably worry about it more than others on this forum. However, worrying about it is not the same as believing it is happening. The difference is "could happen" vs. "is happening". And that difference is what separates abnormalcy bias from conspiracy theories as Hardcalibres so clearly stated. And the difference between "unlikely to happen" and "could never happen" separates normalcy bias from head in the sand willful ignorance.
 
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