I have issues with the "SURVIVAL GROUP" theory.

[ssonb]

I know all about TMT being a lover, Heez a lizzard liver they told me!.. .In reality it is no theory that many will die off . Just look at the very recent examples of regional disasters even here in the US, Katrina and Sandy.

 

[Caribou]

Most of the people that I would like to align with are too far away to do me any good. Most of the friends that are close would be a liability. I think I'd be better off in a group but my current plan is to go it alone.

 

[Rick]

Havent checked all the messages.. so somoene might have already covered this.

The OP asks : "Why is everyone tlaking about larger groups"

Answer: in a time of extreme poverty starvation when 9 out of 10 americans are dying due to lack of food...No matter how well your location seems hidden the minimum group size that is sustainable hinges on this one ability:

Have enough militarily serviceable adults to mount at least one, better two of group members as a watch 24/7.

..if you dont have a watch any group of even moderate competence can come in and slit the throats of all the sleeping men and then go on selecting which, if any, of the women and children, they want to keep alive.
This is how retreats change owners

Since these militarily servicable adults (mainly men of roughly military age, but also some "butch" women) are also your hardest physical laborers only a large group can afford to burn thru 8x 3(shifts) per day of extra manhours from these key folks.
So a group need to be big enough to be able to "afford" 24 man hours a day (as a minimum) for someone to stand watch.. so this person can neither work nor sleep during this time.

Since 2 is better... (its minimal best practices) we are really looking at 48 man hours a day.

So you really need a group with say a absolute minimum of 20 militarily useful adults...

Since many adults are not militarily useful and many humans are also children or extremely old you are looking at a bare minimum of 50 people of mixed demographics to have a viable sustainable post-SHTF community.

My group does not have this size... so for now we hope for the best.. but come SHTF we will be looking to co opt others (if they are useful and dont come empty handed) to get the pre requisite boots on the ground.

I know a guy who is blind.
His only hope of being part of a group in SHTF (and he knows this) would be be the night watch man for the entire rest of his life.. this would free up a laborer.

 

[Caribou]

Havent checked all the messages.. so somoene might have already covered this.

The OP asks : "Why is everyone tlaking about larger groups"

Answer: in a time of extreme poverty starvation when 9 out of 10 americans are dying due to lack of food...No matter how well your location seems hidden the minimum group size that is sustainable hinges on this one ability:

Have enough militarily serviceable adults to mount at least one, better two of group members as a watch 24/7.

..if you dont have a watch any group of even moderate competence can come in and slit the throats of all the sleeping men and then go on selecting which, if any, of the women and children, they want to keep alive.
Congrats your retreat that you built just changed owners.

Since these militarily servicable adults (mainly men but also some "butch" women) are also your hardest physical laborers only a large group can afford to burn thru 8x 3(shifts) per day of extra manhours from these key folks.
So a group need to be big enough to be able to "afford" 24 man hours a day (as a minimum) for someone to stand watch.. so this person can neither work nor sleep during this time.

Since 2 is better... (its minimal best practices) we are really looking at 48 man hours a day.

So you really need a group with say a absolute minimum of 20 militarily useful adults...

Since many adults are not militarily useful and many humans are also children or extremely old you are looking at a bare minimum of 50 people of mixed demographics to have a viable sustainable post-SHTF community.

My group does not have this size... so for now we hope for the best.. but come SHTF we will be looking to co opt others (if they are useful and dont come empty handed) to get the pre requisite boots on the ground.

I know a guy who is blind.
His only hope of being part of a group ( and he knows this) would be be the night watch man for the entire rest of his life..

You don't need the strongest to stand guard. The elders are quite capable of sounding an alarm. Even the more mature kids and teens could do a good job. Women are certainly capable of pushing a button or pulling a trigger. The job of a sentry is to sound an alarm.

 

[Sourdough]

SORRY..........."No SALE"..............I am not buying it. Way....Way....WAY....to many deeply flawed assumption. It is "Classic internet" pre-packaged bunk. Classic Kool-Aid.

Havent checked all the messages.. so somoene might have already covered this.

The OP asks : "Why is everyone tlaking about larger groups"

Answer: in a time of extreme poverty starvation when 9 out of 10 americans are dying due to lack of food...No matter how well your location seems hidden the minimum group size that is sustainable hinges on this one ability:

Have enough militarily serviceable adults to mount at least one, better two of group members as a watch 24/7.

..if you dont have a watch any group of even moderate competence can come in and slit the throats of all the sleeping men and then go on selecting which, if any, of the women and children, they want to keep alive.
This is how retreats change owners

Since these militarily servicable adults (mainly men of roughly military age, but also some "butch" women) are also your hardest physical laborers only a large group can afford to burn thru 8x 3(shifts) per day of extra manhours from these key folks.
So a group need to be big enough to be able to "afford" 24 man hours a day (as a minimum) for someone to stand watch.. so this person can neither work nor sleep during this time.

Since 2 is better... (its minimal best practices) we are really looking at 48 man hours a day.

So you really need a group with say a absolute minimum of 20 militarily useful adults...

Since many adults are not militarily useful and many humans are also children or extremely old you are looking at a bare minimum of 50 people of mixed demographics to have a viable sustainable post-SHTF community.

My group does not have this size... so for now we hope for the best.. but come SHTF we will be looking to co opt others (if they are useful and dont come empty handed) to get the pre requisite boots on the ground.

I know a guy who is blind.
His only hope of being part of a group in SHTF (and he knows this) would be be the night watch man for the entire rest of his life.. this would free up a laborer.

 

[Rick]

You don't need the strongest to stand guard. The elders are quite capable of sounding an alarm. Even the more mature kids and teens could do a good job. Women are certainly capable of pushing a button or pulling a trigger. The job of a sentry is to sound an alarm.

Fair enough..
I left that point out there for someone to make to keep the discussion going.
Certainly there are modifications and work arounds possible, everything's dependent on METTC.

 

[Rick]

SORRY..........."No SALE"..............I am not buying it. Way....Way....WAY....to many deeply flawed assumption. It is "Classic internet" pre-packaged bunk. Classic Kool-Aid.

Classic Prepackaged Internet stuff??
Huh?
I developed this phased approach to describe prepper environments after, I ran a Tiger Team TTX, in a previous job, on a very closely related subject.. with multiple Colonels and GS15s from HHS, CDC,DOJ,NORTHCOM, FEMA, some state EOM reps etc etc
(Not that all that horsepower was needed this is just common sense!)

Its some basic first, second and third order effects on what scarcity and loss of rule of law does...

. Its so basic its barely worth describing.. The only reason that this kind of thinking isn't second nature to everyone is the artificial , no scarcity, and Rule of Law environment we all live in (that goes for country folks as well).

What flawed assumptions?

Is it a also flawed assumption when you step in front of a speeding car that you will get hurt ?

Often when disconnected posts like this happen its folks thinking of different phases of a collapse.

Since you asked why folks are talking about large groups.. well of course I describe a Phase 2 situation, the phase when everyone has figured out what is happening population centes have emptied but most people haven't died off yet and and fighting for survival.
For the vast majority that means taking frlom those who ahve resources.

If you are thinking Phase 0, the current phase, the shaping phase, no you dont need a large group.
Same goes for phase 2 when an event has happend but most folks still sit in the cities waiting for things to normalize again.
Phase two is when the majority of people have realized things have changed the population centers have emptied out and while most folks are still alive they are desperate and will kill for what you have.

Maybe you are thinking of existing in Phase 3?

When the population has fallen so much that the lowered (due to societal collapse) food production is now again in balance with the much lowered due to die offs, population..

That's Phase 3..

Is this simplistic? Yes.
Might there be exceptions depending on the nature of the catastrophe?
Absolutely.

But this does not mean that one must plan for plausible environment.

I suspect you have only a very small group and feel intimidated in trying to merge..
thats why you are poo-pooing these basics.

A small group approach is fine in phase 0, phase 1, and maybe phase 3..
But Phase 2. the kinetic phase the bottle neck that is unlikely survived by nuclear families by themselves..

We had an entire thread on this if memory serves.
One can argue how granular the phases should be.. some would like to add an additional phase between what I call 1 and 2.. thats ok..
but the analytical approach is not that hard.

Do you want to know what is actually "classic internet BS and cool aid"??
That car's ECUs will get "fried" by EMP!

How about that?

 

[SheepDog]

Well, since no one has ever tested a cars ECU under an actual E1 event I would argue that it is more likely to fry. Now if you are talking about a solar EMP you are absolutely right. A solar EMP won't hurt any electronics unless you are unlucky enough to have it plugged into the line and operating without a surge suppressor out on a long length of wire on a country road. Even then the transformer is likely to expire before the pulse can get into your home. Only a high altitude nuclear EMP has an E1 pulse. It is followed by an E2 and finally an E3 that is similar to the solar EMP except for its scope.

 

[Grimm]

SORRY..........."No SALE"..............I am not buying it. Way....Way....WAY....to many deeply flawed assumption. It is "Classic internet" pre-packaged bunk. Classic Kool-Aid.

I'm not sure if you are aware but the bold font, all caps and larger than standard type size is considered yelling as per internet etiquette. Please refrain from this.

 

[Sourdough]

Do you want to know what is actually "classic internet BS and cool aid"??
That car's ECUs will get "fried" by EMP!

How about that?

I am not worried.........my 1959 CAT D-8 with it's 13' will still be running, and driving over or through all the other Bug Out Vehicles.

 

[Sourdough]

I'm not sure if you are aware but the bold font, all caps and larger than standard type size is considered yelling as per internet etiquette

I have been told that, but I keep asking for what governing body enacted that regulation..........It seems like more of that stuff that get repeated over and over till everyone believes it is true. It is like everyone thinks "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" is in the Bible.

And a little YELLING is great now and then.

 

[Meerkat]

That is also my plan.........No human contact for six months. Retreat deep into the wilderness. Go where others can't survive.

We are now watched from above too like satalites, planes, helis etc,. Even silent drones are cruising around our skies.
Also some have family they can't leave or live primitive with.

 

[Sourdough]

I suspect you have only a very small group and feel intimidated in trying to merge..
thats why you are poo-pooing these basics.

No Humans to group with in this area.

 

[Grimm]

I have been told that, but I keep asking for what governing body enacted that regulation..........It seems like more of that stuff that get repeated over and over till everyone believes it is true. It is like everyone thinks "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" is in the Bible.

I never implied it was a formal and/or written law/rule of the internet. It is a commonly shared piece of internet etiquette that is well over 20+ years old. I remember being on chat boards back in the days of AOL and being reamed for using all caps/large type size and bold fonts (internet form of yelling).

 

[Meerkat]

I have been told that, but I keep asking for what governing body enacted that regulation..........It seems like more of that stuff that get repeated over and over till everyone believes it is true. It is like everyone thinks "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" is in the Bible.

And a little YELLING is great now and then.

I use to think " the hand that rocks the cradle rules the world " was in the Bible till I looked for it and if it is in there I didn't find it.

 

[Swing]

I have been told that, but I keep asking for what governing body enacted that regulation..........It seems like more of that stuff that get repeated over and over till everyone believes it is true. It is like everyone thinks "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" is in the Bible.

And a little YELLING is great now and then.

And a bit of yelling can loose you the people you are trying to discuss things with, and if I need to put it in the rules, it will only take a short amount of time. You don't need to be yelling to make a point, especially in that large a print.

 

[Sourdough]

I think hiding is my best option........for survival.

 

[Sourdough]

We are now watched from above too like satalites, planes, helis etc,. Even silent drones are cruising around our skies.

True.........However I can't grasp that they would have any interest in watching my area. Nothing here.

 

[Caribou]

I think hiding is my best option........for survival.

It likely is in your situation. For me hiding in the woods is no longer an option. We all tend to think that our best option is thee best option and that is not necessarily true.

 

[Sourdough]

And a bit of yelling can loose you the people you are trying to discuss things with, and if I need to put it in the rules, it will only take a short amount of time. You don't need to be yelling to make a point, especially in that large a print.

Where did this "Yelling" idea start......??? Really. Did someone say that in passing conversation 23 years ago, and it caught on.......??? Are people pre-programed to believe that capital letters are "Yelling"......???

And what is..........very small lower case letters.....criminal squinting"......???

And what is..........lower case that has color added........is that "racist"

And is Black print not discrimination......???

Why do we choose to get collectively upset about things like all capital letters......???

 

[CrackbottomLouis]

Havent checked all the messages.. so somoene might have already covered this.

The OP asks : "Why is everyone tlaking about larger groups"

Answer: in a time of extreme poverty starvation when 9 out of 10 americans are dying due to lack of food...No matter how well your location seems hidden the minimum group size that is sustainable hinges on this one ability:

Have enough militarily serviceable adults to mount at least one, better two of group members as a watch 24/7.

..if you dont have a watch any group of even moderate competence can come in and slit the throats of all the sleeping men and then go on selecting which, if any, of the women and children, they want to keep alive.
This is how retreats change owners

Since these militarily servicable adults (mainly men of roughly military age, but also some "butch" women) are also your hardest physical laborers only a large group can afford to burn thru 8x 3(shifts) per day of extra manhours from these key folks.
So a group need to be big enough to be able to "afford" 24 man hours a day (as a minimum) for someone to stand watch.. so this person can neither work nor sleep during this time.

Since 2 is better... (its minimal best practices) we are really looking at 48 man hours a day.

So you really need a group with say a absolute minimum of 20 militarily useful adults...

Since many adults are not militarily useful and many humans are also children or extremely old you are looking at a bare minimum of 50 people of mixed demographics to have a viable sustainable post-SHTF community.

My group does not have this size... so for now we hope for the best.. but come SHTF we will be looking to co opt others (if they are useful and dont come empty handed) to get the pre requisite boots on the ground.

I know a guy who is blind.
His only hope of being part of a group in SHTF (and he knows this) would be be the night watch man for the entire rest of his life.. this would free up a laborer.

Make the blind guy the radio monitor. If I was blind I'd be collecting skills that would make me a value add like that.

 

[Meerkat]

It likely is in your situation. For me hiding in the woods is no longer an option. We all tend to think that our best option is thee best option and that is not necessarily true.

I don't participate in all bold caps or swearing because it offends others. I'm not offended by language but many are and I choose not to make my friends uncomfortable.

Sometimes I use caps to emphecize 'spl' my point but not to yell at people.

 

[Meerkat]

And a bit of yelling can loose you the people you are trying to discuss things with, and if I need to put it in the rules, it will only take a short amount of time. You don't need to be yelling to make a point, especially in that large a print.

Not needing to comment. Whoops.

 

[SheepDog]

OK kids, play nice and get along.
OR shake hands, go to your corners and come out fighting!

 

[Swing]

Angie it didn't seem to bother but one person here who had no right to correct him. If she is going to run this site it may not go too well. Only reason I say anything is because it happened to me . She needs to be nice and let yall do the moderating.

We all need to be nice and just report and let the mods handle things. If you (or others) see something such as that, please report, and we'll take it up not on the thread.

 

[Swing]

Now, before this thread gets derailed further

Why not go back to the subject at hand. These posts about yelling may be soft deleted later, so the thread will have decent continuity.

 

[Meerkat]

I never implied it was a formal and/or written law/rule of the internet. It is a commonly shared piece of internet etiquette that is well over 20+ years old. I remember being on chat boards back in the days of AOL and being reamed for using all caps/large type size and bold fonts (internet form of yelling).

Whats your idea of surviving? Mine is with a group because of family.

 

[TMT Tactical]

Okay, lets talk the different points of group vs, loner (very small family) setting. Urban, suburban environment. Yes you are going to need a good sized group. Too close to others for food and other resources. Rural environment --- medium loose groups, more of an agreed mutual aid resource. Multiple families and neighbors. Isolated environments --(Desert, deep forest). Single person or very small and mobile family. I cannot see a group of 50 trying to survive in my desert area. The logistics alone would be insurmountable. The deep forest might provide enough resources for fifty but they would be constantly exposed to ambush and attack from much smaller groups. In a deep forest environment, a lone wolf with solid field craft could hold a much larger force a virtual prisoner. This is all being said to point out, one plan is not a good plan for all folks. Each person must evaluate his or her own requirements and weigh the pro's and con's for each situation and environment.

 

[ssonb]

I do not remember the exact verses maybe INK may help. But it kinda goes like this , It is not good for man to live alone., and It is not good for !an to live elbow to elbow and fence to fence.

 

[Sourdough]

I think the whole question about group "Size" is way down the list of important considerations. People like to "Play" with the group size issue as a distraction from the need to deal with the more uncomfortable issues. Same reason that 97% of preppers only want to jabber about guns and knives. Just as the classic response to nearly everything is, "Well it depends on what you think the SHTF event will materialize as". People want to distract themselves from confronting the hard ugly possibilities.

Okay, lets talk the different points of group vs, loner (very small family) setting. Urban, suburban environment. Yes you are going to need a good sized group. Too close to others for food and other resources. Rural environment --- medium loose groups, more of an agreed mutual aid resource. Multiple families and neighbors. Isolated environments --(Desert, deep forest). Single person or very small and mobile family. I cannot see a group of 50 trying to survive in my desert area. The logistics alone would be insurmountable. The deep forest might provide enough resources for fifty but they would be constantly exposed to ambush and attack from much smaller groups. In a deep forest environment, a lone wolf with solid field craft could hold a much larger force a virtual prisoner. This is all being said to point out, one plan is not a good plan for all folks. Each person must evaluate his or her own requirements and weigh the pro's and con's for each situation and environment.