Long term, unstable, threats.

[Aerindel]

I have always viewed fire as my biggest threat. I live on a wooded, steep hillside, bordering hundreds of square miles of wild-land.

I have made extensive preparations, stucco buildings, sprinkler systems, etc. Some clearing of land, but not as much as I could as I view the uncleared land as having opsec value. I am also a firefighter, and equipped with full firefighting gear, including SCBA's

But I ran into a huge, life evaluating problem when I faced it for real.

Fires are unpredictable.

This summer I faced a massive forest fire, started about a mile from my place (I saw it only minutes after it started)

For about 50 days, I was threatened by it. On four separate days, the fire made runs, that had they been in my direction, would have reached me in about 30 minutes if they had been in my direction. One occasion, was in my direction, but was stopped by the firefighters fire line, about half a mile away.

What I have been struggling with ever since, is trying to rework my plans for a long term, but unstable threat. Which I realize is really important, because even if its not a fire, it will probably be true, of most SHTFs.

This is a complex, multifaceted issue, which most 'sound bite' prepping doesn't apply to.

To understand the full issue, this is the brief of what happened.

It was the day after an exhausting camping trip. I was outside, unloading the War Wagon ( a camper I built). I felt like crap.

It was 95º, overcast, and windy. Wife and kid where playing in the stock tank (red neck pool)

I had slept most of the day, so it was about 5 PM I was moving slowly, unpacking the coolers, etc.

"I don't like this" I told my wife.

A few minutes later, I heard a single, loud crack of thunder.
"That just started a fire somewhere I bet" I told my wife. I flipped on the perimeter sprinkler system (I have two levels of sprinkler system, an outer defensive ring, and a SHTF, rooftop flood system, which sprays 300 GPM per minute on the roofs, walls, etc, It is a final defense because given out it sprays water, it causes leaks in some of the walls, windows, etc.)

I went back instead, and started changing my clothes, getting into wildland firefight gear. Before I even had my boots on, I got the call, fire spotted, no exact location given)

I headed for my FD response vehicle, pre-loaded with much of my gear (a 2000 Subaru outback, this is a SPARE vehicle, as my truck is so often used for hauling stuff, its not always in a state that is ready fore emergencies and I can't afford to tie it down like that)

Before I even got in, I got a text from a neighbor "FIRE NEAR YOU!" I looked up, and could see flames through the trees on the MT above me.
From the driveway I turned to my wife, and yelled

"FIRE!, Defcon 2!"

Years ago, I wrote a home defense plan, based on the DEFCON system, with varying levels of action based on each level. Defcon 2 is the highest level that has ever been activated. Defcon 5 is normal operations. Defcon 4 is heightened security, set every night. Defcon 3 is high security, set when there is high possibility of a threat, but nothing actively known. Defcon 2, is a known threat, but no immediate danger. Defcon 1 is known danger, actively present or inbound, think active SHTF.

Each action list, is based on what the treat is. Defcon 3 because of escaped prisoners in the area, is different than Defcon 3 because of a blizzard.

The book is split up into natural threats, human threats, and bug out threats.

After yelling out the warning, I left in my car, as I couldn't tell very much about the fire. At the bottom of the hill I could see it clearly. I gave the first official report. Adrenaline was so high, I took out a decorative boulder with my bumper on the way down (damn neighbors) Luckily my car has a battering ram on the front.

What follows, is too long for a blow by blow, but the short version is:
The fire expanded rapidly towards me, burning about ten acres, in the first ten minutes, but as evening came, the wind died and fire stopped burning towards me. The fire was several hundred acres in size the first night but pretty quickly, I determined we where not in IMMEDIATE threat.

It was also clear there was no stopping the fire where it started. Despite significant air attack, it was going to burn, and burn for months.

The following day, the FD posted evacuation orders on our road.

The first thing my wife did, was set up everything for a ten minute evacuation. Kid, bug out bags, pets, etc.

This part was perfect. Had the fire made a run towards us, we would have been gone, with all living things, documents, and survival gear in moments.

The real 'Disaster' came next.

Once it was clear that we would not burn instantly, the question was:

What next??

Follow up post later on what we did. In the mean time, I'd like you guys to think about what the answer should have been.

This was the fire ten minutes after it started, taken from the beginning of my road:
My place is just out of frame, down to the left, back in the woods

 

[Neb]

I have always viewed fire as my biggest threat. I live on a wooded, steep hillside, bordering hundreds of square miles of wild-land.

I have made extensive preparations, stucco buildings, sprinkler systems, etc. Some clearing of land, but not as much as I could as I view the uncleared land as having opsec value. I am also a firefighter, and equipped with full firefighting gear, including SCBA's

But I ran into a huge, life evaluating problem when I faced it for real.

Fires are unpredictable.

This summer I faced a massive forest fire, started about a mile from my place (I saw it only minutes after it started)

For about 50 days, I was threatened by it. On four separate days, the fire made runs, that had they been in my direction, would have reached me in about 30 minutes if they had been in my direction. One occasion, was in my direction, but was stopped by the firefighters fire line, about half a mile away.

What I have been struggling with ever since, is trying to rework my plans for a long term, but unstable threat. Which I realize is really important, because even if its not a fire, it will probably be true, of most SHTFs.

This is a complex, multifaceted issue, which most 'sound bite' prepping doesn't apply to.

To understand the full issue, this is the brief of what happened.

It was the day after an exhausting camping trip. I was outside, unloading the War Wagon ( a camper I built). I felt like crap.

It was 95º, overcast, and windy. Wife and kid where playing in the stock tank (red neck pool)

I had slept most of the day, so it was about 5 PM I was moving slowly, unpacking the coolers, etc.

"I don't like this" I told my wife.

A few minutes later, I heard a single, loud crack of thunder.
"That just started a fire somewhere I bet" I told my wife. I flipped on the perimeter sprinkler system (I have two levels of sprinkler system, an outer defensive ring, and a SHTF, rooftop flood system, which sprays 300 GPM per minute on the roofs, walls, etc, It is a final defense because given out it sprays water, it causes leaks in some of the walls, windows, etc.)

I went back instead, and started changing my clothes, getting into wildland firefight gear. Before I even had my boots on, I got the call, fire spotted, no exact location given)

I headed for my FD response vehicle, pre-loaded with much of my gear (a 2000 Subaru outback, this is a SPARE vehicle, as my truck is so often used for hauling stuff, its not always in a state that is ready fore emergencies and I can't afford to tie it down like that)

Before I even got in, I got a text from a neighbor "FIRE NEAR YOU!" I looked up, and could see flames through the trees on the MT above me.
From the driveway I turned to my wife, and yelled

"FIRE!, Defcon 2!"

Years ago, I wrote a home defense plan, based on the DEFCON system, with varying levels of action based on each level. Defcon 2 is the highest level that has ever been activated. Defcon 5 is normal operations. Defcon 4 is heightened security, set every night. Defcon 3 is high security, set when there is high possibility of a threat, but nothing actively known. Defcon 2, is a known threat, but no immediate danger. Defcon 1 is known danger, actively present or inbound, think active SHTF.

Each action list, is based on what the treat is. Defcon 3 because of escaped prisoners in the area, is different than Defcon 3 because of a blizzard.

The book is split up into natural threats, human threats, and bug out threats.

After yelling out the warning, I left in my car, as I couldn't tell very much about the fire. At the bottom of the hill I could see it clearly. I gave the first official report. Adrenaline was so high, I took out a decorative boulder with my bumper on the way down (damn neighbors) Luckily my car has a battering ram on the front.

What follows, is too long for a blow by blow, but the short version is:
The fire expanded rapidly towards me, burning about ten acres, in the first ten minutes, but as evening came, the wind died and fire stopped burning towards me. The fire was several hundred acres in size the first night but pretty quickly, I determined we where not in IMMEDIATE threat.

It was also clear there was no stopping the fire where it started. Despite significant air attack, it was going to burn, and burn for months.

The following day, the FD posted evacuation orders on our road.

The first thing my wife did, was set up everything for a ten minute evacuation. Kid, bug out bags, pets, etc.

This part was perfect. Had the fire made a run towards us, we would have been gone, with all living things, documents, and survival gear in moments.

The real 'Disaster' came next.

Once it was clear that we would not burn instantly, the question was:

What next??

Follow up post later on what we did. In the mean time, I'd like you guys to think about what the answer should have been.

This was the fire ten minutes after it started, taken from the beginning of my road:
My place is just out of frame, down to the left, back in the woods




View attachment 117916

Wild fires are rare here so I can only offer a thought.

How about a perimeter of spray heads like they use to make snow for skiing. If they are fed from a central manifold at the house you can soak down sections of your place as the fire progresses.

Sea story time

When fighting fires on a ship two man teams worked together. One was out front with they typical nozzle. The second followed close behind with a spray head on a long pipe. The spray head was kept in front of the first guy as a water barrier.

A water dome to cover your house?

Suppose you do keep your place from burning there is still the issue of oxygen. An SCBA for everyone in the house?

Ben

 

[Hardcalibres]

I too view fire as a "high probability - high consequence" threat for most homesteaders/survivalists.

We have had one fire burn into a front portion of our land (from a neighbor) - that one was fought by the local volunteers (and me) including with fixed and rotary wing air assets. The conditions that day were not severe....so the level of difficulty was relatively low.

More recently, we had a BIG fire get within about 1000m of our boundary, and we stood to with all our gear ready......but the wind changed and the firefighters got the front closest to us under control. Those conditions were much worse and so the potential for damage and sheer speed in how things evolved was high.

The time issue is something we also experienced........fire events often drag on for days and weeks. Fires start, areas get burned, some fronts are controlled and others are not. Even when a fire gets "controlled", all it takes is a deterioration in the conditions, and the whole emergency gets going again.

But perhaps the way we view emergencies is mostly unrealistic.

I have always suspected that most scenarios that people discuss, underestimate how long most severe events take to fully unfold.

That doesn't mean they don't arrive very quickly....but they don't get resolved quickly.

 

[Aerindel]

Chapter 2: Dragon.

So, after the initial rush, is where things broke down.

As mentioned, I have significant fire fighting preps in place. I think I am better prepared to bug in for a fire, than 99% of people. Walls are covered in an inch of concrete, and with the flip of a handle, I can create what amounts to a local rain storm.

However, as anyone who has ever seen a forest fire on a red flag day....a forest fire is a monster.

Its hard to explain, but there is an almost supernatural horror and awe to a fire in its glory. On some days the smoke column was 30,000 feet high. When it flared up, that smoke would ignite and you would see waves of fire going hundreds of feet into the air.

Its hard to sit still, and trust in your fire prepps, when you see what amounts to a fire breathing dragon burning up thousands of acres a mile from your house.

What I had, was time. After that first day, it was clear the fire would be with me, for the rest of the summer. Some days, it just smoldered, some days, it exploded.

This was the next day:

And a few days later:

But some days, it looked like this:

But like I said, the problem, was that I had time.

At an point, a shift in the weather could bring the fire to my doorstep, in less than an hour.

My strategy was simple in theory....very difficult in practice. I was determined to fight the fire. I would not leave, as long as my house was not on fire. I would not go down with the ship, but I wouldn't leave until my feet were wet.

Knowing that my defenses may not be enough, and that by the time I would know wether or not they where enough, it would be too late, I decided to pre-evacuate all the stuff I could.

I loaded up my camper with all my camping supplies, etc. Guns, tools, etc. My INCH kit. and I moved it to a safe location.

This location was actually a backup bug out site. As my primary bug out site, was burned over on the second day. Good lesson there, have multiple sites, you never know which ones will be viable.

What became very hard....was knowing what to do, from day to day.

I started removing the highest priority items....

From zero hour, several days in, my priorities where:

Things I needed to survive. Food, shelter,clothes etc....everything I would need to physically survive, if my house was destroyed. This went FAST. Like most of you I imagine, I have a bug out plan for bug out stuff, so this phase was fast and efficient.

Next was high value items. Guns, computers, tools. This took DAYS....thousands of pounds of stuff, multiple trips. I moved half a dozen vehicles. Spare vehicles are wonderful however, as every spare vehicle, doubles as mobile storage unit.

We would work until we where too tired, then try to sleep, watch the fire, and go back to work. This part was a mess. Once the obvious priorities where taken care of, it was very hard to decided what to take, and when. What was worth moving? What order? Do we pack up the kids toys? or leave them?

One thing that I thought was very important, was to keep an eye on the fire. It was hard to see directly from my house, so every couple hours, I would ride my mini-bike down to one of several locations to get eyes on the fire. This slowed everything down.

One thing that was clear right away, is that if we only had hours, it wouldn't be enough. To truely get out 'everything' would mean shifting would could easily be, 100,000 pounds of stuff. It wasn't just time, it was energy. Long before we would run out of time, we would run out of energy to physically do the work.

And all of the stuff, put together, would be maybe 1/10th the value of the actual house itself, which could not be moved.

It was really hard to tell, if it was even worth it. How valuable is a ten year old cordless drill, if you shop has burned down? What would a homeless person do with 10,000 rounds of 7.62x39?

I had done a lot of pre-planning for emergency survival. But that wasn't what I was facing anymore.

I realized I had a huge hole in my plans. I had a good plan for bugging out.....I had no plan for MOVING.

But it was worse than that, it was like moving, without a place to move to, or even knowing if you had to move at all. It was taking everything you own, and putting it in storage, while still living in your house.

And the whole time, waiting for a weather shift, that could have you fighting fire, in less than an hour.

Every step of the way, you had to be ready to drop what you where doing, which made it very hard to plan efficiently.

I was miserable work. It was controlled destruction of my entire homestead.

More than once I would think "F it.....I'm prepared to make my stand, so I will just make my stand" But then when you can see the fire, when its not theoretical, but incredibly real, and what you are facing is the complete destruction of your entire life, its very hard to sit around, and not do something.

After about two weeks, the fire was bigger than ever. The threat worse....but still not here. Pretty much everything that was practical to move, was moved.

Which started another problem.....we where starting to have issues with not enough clothes for the kid, because many of them where moved...with wanting tools that where bugged out.

After all, all the stuff you own, you own because you need it. Remove most of that....and after a while, life starts to grind to a halt.

So we started expanding the fire perimeter. We raked, we cut trees, we de-limbed. All of which felt rather futile, in the face of The Dragon. Although knowing how fires are really stopped, and how surprisingly little, can stop most fires....on the bad days, it didn't help us feel any better.

 

[Aerindel]

This was one of the worst days for fire activity....more than three weeks after ignition:



(also a fun look at how much meat on the hoof and foot is available here)

 

[Caribou]

Fire is certainly a major concern. One was close enough that we responded to it. There was a fire in the tundra just about a mile off the airport runway. We were able to put it out before it got too big. Many times I've smelled wild fires, almost every year.

My biggest concerns are earthquakes and volcanos. We've had 2 or 3 7+ quakes since we bought our current home. The record locally for quakes is 9.2, 27 Mar 64. I slept through it, oh to be a teen again.

One of the volcanos shuts down the Anchorage airport every few years. Airports are shut and flight paths changes every year. I have snow removal equipment for my roof that I expect will work with volcanic ash. I have special filters for the car and dust masks, Tyke coveralls, and other PPE for us.

 

[Hardcalibres]

I know you like having your dwelling within the trees for concealment, but based upon your dilemma and recent experience, the most significant mitigation you could apply would be a clear felled zone.

Your trees look to be as little as 5 yards from your dwelling.

Radiant heat conforms to an inverse square law.

If you pushed those trees back from 5 yards to 50 yards, then that 10 fold increase would reduce radiant heat by about 100 fold - or a 99% reduction.

That would make your dwelling very much more defensible and might make the relocation of so much of your material gear un-neccessary.

If you really wanted trees long term, then you could replant with fire retardant trees.


https://www.winterhill.com.au/trees/fireretardant/


https://wfca.com/articles/fire-resistant-plants/

 

[Magpie]

I can only add to the above. So far it's not an issue with me, but I have family in Australia who have lost homes to fire and floods, and others who live with the threat.
A fire break and increased watering system, and I would look to Australian websites or YouTubers for more suggestions. Best wishes to you & and the family.

 

[ssonb]

What type of affordable portable fire pumps are available or ones that you have used and have experience with?
Almost all our high volume pond and lake water sources are down hill or a quarter mile away. We do have two fair sized creeks that border two opposite sides of the neighborhood.
Just your post here has helped me realize that in our situation that individual property protection from fire besides clearing back trees and brush will be next to useless! All our properties here are on wells and getting anything over seven gallons a minute is all a homeowner here can expect, we all will need to move our front fire protection line to the creek beds that almost surround the neighborhood.
I am a retired FF/EMT and I know and have had to calculate friction loses from drafting operations, hoses and elevation.
All our homes are up hill from the water sources and there are no fire hydrants.
Just to my home from the creek is a vertical rise of just over one hundred feet!
I have tried to get some of the others in the area to apply and help build a dedicated drafting station for the volunteer FD at the entrance of the neighborhood but since most everyone else here has never fought fires they cannot see the need!
We all here know how that works...

 

[Aerindel]

Your trees look to be as little as 5 yards from your dwelling.

This is true. And I am re-evaluating them

However, they are not as bad as they seem....watered trees do no burn, at least not easily. This is the reason why lighting strikes are no threat most of the year. It is only later in the summer, when its a very dry summer (as they all seem to be lately) that the trees will actually burn.

I can't even get green trees to burn when thrown onto a pile of dry wood. Cut trees usually take a year to dry enough to dispose of in slash piles.

In fact, even when its dry, living trees burn poorly except in the worst conditions. MOST of what burned, was underbrush, pine duff, standing and fallen dead. All the trees that grow in my area, are trees that evolved to survive fires every decade or so.

This does not mean that they can't burn....but it would be very hard to make the trees near my house burn, as they are always watered.

What type of affordable portable fire pumps are available or ones that you have used and have experience with?

Many options but the easiest and most affordable are Harbor Freight trash pumps. Harbor frieght may not be the best, but their Predator line of engines are well tested at this point and very reliable and you can buy two or three of them for the price of a Honda.
My system uses a 2.5HP electric pump for day to day use, but in-line with it, is a 5 HP HF gas powered trash pump, as I expect to lose power in a close fire. Since its plumbed in to the same line, it only has to be started to switch from electric to gas.

This provided plenty of pressure at about 50 feet of rise to run fifteen rainbirds at a time at my house.

Up at my house, I have a 1.5 HP electric booster pump, that greatly increases pressure for my handheld fire hose, which can reach high up into the trees or the roof of my buildings etc.

The 'super power' that I have, which makes my location much much better than it normally would be, is a irrigation ditch that runs just below my house, for which I have water rights and from which I can pump hundreds of gallons per minute easily. It probably carries a thousand gallons per minute at least in the summer.

I also have the stock tank I mentioned, which I can pump from with my booster pump, but which would last about 10 minutes in active fire fighting if not refilled.

 

[ssonb]

Two years ago I had nine trees removed from being to close the the house mostly for being a fall hazard but increased fire buffer is a plus. We have high wind and tornado wind damage much more often than fires but we have had years of extended drought that moves the fire threat to the forefront.
Around here N GA I live in a designated "wilderness" area and tree removal is a over complicated expensive endeavor but once you get the approval and the crews arrive you can negotiate a bundle price that reduces the cost per tree since they are here already.

 

[rice paddy daddy]

We live in a heavily wooded area, in fact our property was once part of a tree farm.
After a wildfire ripped thru the area, passing our property just on the other side of a 20’ wide dirt road, we decided to remove all trees and undergrowth on about 2.5 acres around the house and outbuildings.
That provided a good sense of security.
We did that 20 years ago.
As an old soldier I also like to be able to see anyone sneaking up on me.

 

[LadyLocust]

Hey there A. First off, I'd like to say I'm grateful your home and family are safe!
Secondly, and this is so minute it almost seems silly to mention but~
I know you are organized for such situations but in determining what to move or not move, I consider things that can be replaced vs. things that cannot be replaced. It sounds like you did this to some extent, but clothes can easily be replaced. A valuable tool that is out of production - maybe not or at least not at a feasible price. It does sound like though a substantial stress, this has you thinking in a direction to become even better prepared. To be "prepared" for certain things we have equipment or items that aid in one area, but then they become burdens in another. Ex. to be prepared to keep your rigs running in a societal SHTF scenario, you might have auto supplies, tools, and fuels. These items become a burden when needing to be mobile in the experience you had with encroaching fire danger.
I don't think there is a one size fits all answer but a balance of weights and measures as to personal priorities is something each of us should consider.

 

[Mountain trapper]

Fire is our only real concern here. We own an inholding completely inside of the National Forest. A few years ago we lost a section of our property to fire, every last tree and blade of grass burned. That fire started about 10 miles away and burned a couple hundred thousand acres. Two years ago another fire started about 40 miles south of us and burned to within a half mile of our place. This summer the Forest Service started a controlled burn all around our property. The fire got away from them in a few places but they quickly got it out. And in one are the fire burned a long section of fence, which the FS will replace. Every summer here is very dry and fires are always a possibility. Not much we can do about it. I do keep the land grazed down and I've cleared the brush out around the area. Only have a few hundred more acres to clear....
We're raking up and burning the pine needles and dead grass around the house right now.

 

[Alaskajohn]

Fire is a real concern for me as I have posted numerous times. I ended up clearing a minimum of 100 yards of trees on the windward side of my main structures and at least 50 yards on the leeward side. Hated to see the trees go, but it simply needed to happen. The wife has been out most of this week working on maintaining/improving this while I worked on other projects. Typically early spring and late fall projects as it's safer to burn the brush with the rains/snow and access is easier to the brush.

Aerindel, thanks for sharing this epic battle with us.

 

[Aerindel]

Aerindel, thanks for sharing this epic battle with us.

Epic battle is what I wanted.

What I got was slow psychological breakdown.

So to continue...

I can't remember exactly what week it was, when I started to realize how big of a mess this was.

But after the initial rush, I started to realize how much of a failure much of what I had was.
If the fire had continued to move in my direction, it would have reached me before I had a chance to evacuate anything of meaningful value.

It was DAYS before I had the bulk of my stuff moved out.
And even then, I realized, there was really little value to that stuff.

Very little of what I own, is very valuable, not even to me.

What IS valuable is the SYSTEMS I've built up for the years. The right tools, for the things I own, the countless little $5 items that I use, but have no value outside that system.

Spare cars worth almost nothing on the open market, but valuable to me. Things like fences, pipes, wiring, that can't be moved...
I could go on...but there would really be no starting over with what I had evacuated. I'd just be a homeless guy, with huge amount of junk.


And what is more, I had destroyed my life. Although my house was not on fire, and did not become on fire, I lost two months of work. I got nothing done, I was physically and emotionally exhausted and my security situation was trash, with half of all my possessions, spread out across the community.

It seemed like a good precaution to evacuate stuff while I had the time, but really, I don't think I accomplished anything of value. My plans had fallen apart, and I had lost initiative. I was no longer planning, I was just reacting. On good days, I would move things back, because I needed them, on bad days, I would move them out again. It was madness.

Eventually, about two months after it started, we got enough lasting rain, to put the fire to bed.

I got lucky.

That was the conclusion I came to. All the work, the sacrifice of months of life....none of it meant anything. Nothing I did effected the outcome. The reality was, if the fire had 'wanted' to come to me, I would have had to fight it, just like I always planned, and it would have been that fight, that determined my survival, not the running around like a chicken trying to move my stuff out. Except I would have been in terrible shape to actually put up that fight, because half my stuff would me scattered about, and I would be exhausted.

Despite all my preps to fight fire, when faced with the moment of decision, I blinked. I hedged my bets. I went with half measures.

I neither bugged out, or holed up.....I tried to do both, in case one of them was the wrong thing to do.
he long term nature of the threat, and the way the sense of danger changed from hour to hour....broke my decision making process. Given enough time to think, and 'sweat' over possibilities, I lost my focus. I seconded guessed myself into oblivion.

And I suspect,.....this is 'real' event and how it played out, is very realistic, for perhaps MOST types of SHTF. Particularly for preppers, because we have so many more options than normal people.

What do I think I learned? That will be in the next post.


A few more pics. These are pictures taken a few days after the fire was stopped, from the fire line closest to my place:


:

 

[Aerindel]

As an old soldier I also like to be able to see anyone sneaking up on me.

This almost deserves a thread on to itself. Its a topic I have been thinking about for many many years at this point.

Soldiers all seem to want to defend open ground, and hate going into dense woods, urban settings, mountains, etc.

Gorillas, all seem to want to catch soldiers in open ground, and defend woods, dense urban buildings, steep mountains, etc.

I've been trying to find the answer to this paradox for a long time.


I think it comes down to wether you think you are the biggest threat on the battefield and are only worried about surprise attack,

or if you think you are vulnerable, and are most worried about detection and lack of cover.

If you are part of a military force, with air support, artillery support, and numbers....open territory makes the most sense as your battlefield, and concealment is pretty much irrelevant anyway, as your forces are too big to hide.

However, if you are poorly equipped, alone or in small numbers, your only defense is in cover, surprise and a complex, messy battlefield, that plays against the strengths of a real military.
Seeing someone sneaking up on you, only helps if you are the stronger force. If what you have detected however, is superior force, and now you have to escape, or hunker down...now you are prey, out in the open.

Detection works both ways. Anywhere you can catch someone sneaking up on you, they can catch you sneaking away. Or simply find you by chance. A house out in the middle of acres of cleared land, means that anyone who gets to any point of that cleared land, now knows where the house is. Your signature is as big as the cleared area, even if the house is actually small.

 

[ssonb]

Dang big A! Thanks for these insights, your definition on the systems of your setup on your homestead hit the nail on my head.
I can see myself doing the same in response to such a problem, I have too many valuable,.... No "useful" items stored and stacked in and around my home that are used to get the work done.
Very good insight and info here. Now to continue thinkin.

 

[Hardcalibres]

This almost deserves a thread on to itself. Its a topic I have been thinking about for many many years at this point.

Soldiers all seem to want to defend open ground, and hate going into dense woods, urban settings, mountains, etc.

Gorillas, all seem to want to catch soldiers in open ground, and defend woods, dense urban buildings, steep mountains, etc.

I've been trying to find the answer to this paradox for a long time.


I think it comes down to wether you think you are the biggest threat on the battefield and are only worried about surprise attack,

or if you think you are vulnerable, and are most worried about detection and lack of cover.

If you are part of a military force, with air support, artillery support, and numbers....open territory makes the most sense as your battlefield, and concealment is pretty much irrelevant anyway, as your forces are too big to hide.

However, if you are poorly equipped, alone or in small numbers, your only defense is in cover, surprise and a complex, messy battlefield, that plays against the strengths of a real military.
Seeing someone sneaking up on you, only helps if you are the stronger force. If what you have detected however, is superior force, and now you have to escape, or hunker down...now you are prey, out in the open.

Detection works both ways. Anywhere you can catch someone sneaking up on you, they can catch you sneaking away. Or simply find you by chance. A house out in the middle of acres of cleared land, means that anyone who gets to any point of that cleared land, now knows where the house is. Your signature is as big as the cleared area, even if the house is actually small.

In my view, the best solution to those tradeoffs is a layered system.

Have an outer layer of trees/concealment at your boundary - that makes it difficult to see into your land from publicly accessible places.

Have a mid layer of cleared ground for several hundred yards, to provide a zone that is difficult to cross securely and that exceeds the range of the guns that most threats have.

Have a close in layer of trees, shrubs and other concealment/cover around your dwelling that makes it difficult for anyone surveilling you to work out what you are doing in and around your dwelling - but that allows you to see out from effective lookout positions.

In the context of this discussion, those inner layer trees/shrubs would also be fire retardant.

 

[Aerindel]

In my view, the best solution to those tradeoffs is a layered system.

Have an outer layer of trees/concealment at your boundary - that makes it difficult to see into your land from publicly accessible places.

Have a mid layer of cleared ground for several hundred yards, to provide a zone that is difficult to cross securely and that exceeds the range of the guns that most threats have.

Have a close in layer of trees, shrubs and other concealment/cover around your dwelling that makes it difficult for anyone surveilling you to work out what you are doing in and around your dwelling - but that allows you to see out from effective lookout positions.

In the context of this discussion, those inner layer trees/shrubs would also be fire retardant.

I agree, but I seem to remember we talked about this (or with someone else) several years ago (like 4-5) and I did the math and ended up with like a 1000 acre minimum for such an arrangement, and something like more than a mile of treeline you would have to monitor somehow.

 

[dademoss]

My absolute BEST is around 250 yards. The creek is not a barrier, there are NO trees. Nope NOT MOVING., this is reality.

Yeah, trees are cover "FOR THEM". Come over the open ground and see what happens.

Concealment is ALWAYS 2 edged, you cant see them, they can't see you.

You'll dont wanna get wet, come over over the bridge, 251 yards of open field.

 

[Aerindel]

Concealment is ALWAYS 2 edged, you cant see them, they can't see you.

It comes down to wether you think you are the biggest threat in your AO or not.

My absolute BEST is around 250 yards. The creek is not a barrier, there are NO trees. Nope NOT MOVING., this is reality.

This could become a big problem for you in open ground. I can easily hit man sized targets at 700 yards....which I don't consider very impressive. If I lived in open country, I would invest in significant long range ability.

 

[Weedygarden]

Have a close in layer of trees, shrubs and other concealment/cover around your dwelling that makes it difficult for anyone surveilling you to work out what you are doing in and around your dwelling - but that allows you to see out from effective lookout positions.

In the context of this discussion, those inner layer trees/shrubs would also be fire retardant.

I'm wondering how close in these should be? From everything I've read, you should have space between your home and foliage. If and when that foliage were to catch fire, if it is too close to your home, it will help start your home on fire.

 

[joel]

My absolute BEST is around 250 yards. The creek is not a barrier, there are NO trees. Nope NOT MOVING., this is reality.

Yeah, trees are cover "FOR THEM". Come over the open ground and see what happens.

Concealment is ALWAYS 2 edged, you cant see them, they can't see you.

You'll don't wanna get wet, come over over the bridge, 251 yards of open field.

If I lived in dense woods, I would plow around my open area at least once a month. Also I would bush hog all the open grass, as soon as it dried in fall. But I own these thing & they cost to purchase these days. Replacing my equipment cost more than my house did 33 years ago.

 

[joel]

It comes down to wether you think you are the biggest threat in your AO or not.


This could become a big problem for you in open ground. I can easily hit man sized targets at 700 yards....which I don't consider very impressive. If I lived in open country, I would invest in significant long range ability.

My best is a M16 at 400.

 

[Hardcalibres]

I'm wondering how close in these should be? From everything I've read, you should have space between your home and foliage. If and when that foliage were to catch fire, if it is too close to your home, it will help start your home on fire.

Closest of mine are about 30 yards away - but they are in that fire retardant category. Fleshy plants won't burn and they soak up radiant heat during that peak minute or two of a severe fire event/storm.

Closer than that, we only have a mowed and green lawn that is watered during summer so as to stay green.

 

[Hardcalibres]

I agree, but I seem to remember we talked about this (or with someone else) several years ago (like 4-5) and I did the math and ended up with like a 1000 acre minimum for such an arrangement, and something like more than a mile of treeline you would have to monitor somehow.

Yep we have a boundary tree line a few miles long that varies from a few hundred yards away to very much further.

The geometry works on a few hundred acres - especially if you also have topographic barriers (rather than dead flat ground).

We had the advantage of starting with a significant acreage of commercial plantation timber. When we finished with that, we were able to selectively kill the recently cut stumps to create clear ground. Where we didn't kill the stumps, the trees have grown back as shelter/barrier stands.

We also allowed some of the land to grow back to trees, far from the dwelling, as future shelter for our expanding beef herd.

 

[Aerindel]

I'm wondering how close in these should be? From everything I've read, you should have space between your home and foliage. If and when that foliage were to catch fire, if it is too close to your home, it will help start your home on fire.

Indeed. But not all foliage burns when it's green.

By far, the biggest threat in any fire to a home, is blowing embers that get under porches, into your attic, etc. Its very common after fires that destroy houses....to see unburnt trees all around the house.

Its usually not the trees that catch fire and burn the house, its usually blowing embers, burning grass, etc.

Look at the pictures of the burned area from my fire for instance...you see a lot of trees scorched by the fire, but the trees where not primarily what was burning.

My best is a M16 at 400.

With a good scope, which are pretty cheap these days, and a decent 308, long range shooting is pretty easy as long as you know your fundamentals. I don't consider myself an amazing shot, but with my Howa 1500, and 20x Vortex scope, I just dial in the range on the turret, center the crosshairs and its point and click. 2x4 steel plate at 700 yards is just challenging enough to be fun.

 

[SoJer]

Wow, Dude. What a Story. I am both Glad you went Thru it ('what doesn't Kill you, Makes you...' you know the rest and at the same time, Totally 'feel' the frustration of yer 'Conundrum within a Maelstrom'.. Wow.

SO Glad, though, ultimately you guys 'Got lucky'.. I understand the 'yeah, But, IF...' feelings, but.. As my Grandmother used to say 'Don't borrow trouble (by worrying about Tomorrow..) just be glad Today ended as Well as it Did, (in the context of something 'Bad happening that day') ..and Move on..'

Fwiw, here's some thoughts / ideas distilled from my Own 'past thoughts / Experiences on this all' (and - believe me when I tell you that, Man - I Do 'Know Who the Dragon Is'...

Chapter 2: Dragon.
.....Its hard to explain, but there is an almost supernatural horror and awe to a fire in its glory. ...hard to sit still, and trust in your fire prepps, when you see what amounts to a fire breathing dragon burning up thousands of acres a mile from your house.

..Yep, I Well-recall the rapid-devolution of looking out and going: 'Oh, Wow... that... Looks.. Not-good...' into freaking Enormous 'Pyroclastic Towers', looking like some Hollywood-recreation of Mt Vesuvius, in a matter of Minutes / couple-Hours, at most...

..To - within a Day, converting to: 'Uhh... that's Uh.. Only 2 miles from Us.. Do I need to, like.. Get Packed, here??

..And you may recall my Own 'Really close call': https://www.homesteadingforum.org/t...-the-school-of-hard-knocks.14939/#post-425673 ..Yah, the 'House-Over' was freaking Close-Enough to 'skool Me' real well..

Anyhoo, None of this is to 'upstage' yer post / story, etc, but simply to demo that - Yeah, I Can relate, somewhat, especially to the 'Brain-Wrestling' you go thru with with all the 'Stay or Fight?-math', and Because of those past-experiences, I have Also 'ran Extensive Mental-Math' when I was planning for Our BOL, nested in 'Double-edged-sword'-Woods, like yers...

..and, similarly, Have realized that - At Best - Yah, it's a Total crap-shoot (If you'll Make it, or not, regardless of 'How Well ya prepped' for it..) but.. Gotta Try, and that requires TONS of forethought, as you illuminated, here, and planning / building, etc.. Yep - it wears ya out just Thinking about it.. Can barely imagine how Truly Exhausting this all must have been for ya (mentally, too, not just Physically, et al..) but.. For Now - ya Made It. Now, time to Forge it all into Learning - again - and Adaptation - again - for Next Time the Dragon comes..

..So, here's a few unsolicited .02: (..and, Derp - Sorry, I have to 'split it into Two posts'..

jd

 

[SoJer]

...my primary bug out site, was burned over on the second day. Good lesson there, have multiple sites, you never know which ones will be viable.

Something I had entertained, when thinking about making a 'Fire-Bunker' for Us (though This idea got cut, since we really didn't end up having a good-enough 'slope' to make it work.. but You Might (?)..) was getting / using a 'Half-12' x 20' deep Culvert-Pipe Section - like an 'Airplane Hangar roof' - Buried into the side of an Earth-Berm, with a Concrete-floor, and not much else. Picture 1/2 of This, 'buried' into the side of a (manufactured, if need-be) 'Hill', with a floor:

...And NO 'flammable foliage' ANYwhere around it, for a few hundred feet.. Plant moss or clover, etc on the Ground all around it or something, but.. No Pines / oily-shrubs, etc, Anything that would risk introducing 'Nearby radiant-heat' to Whatever contents you 'emergency-stashed', therein, whilst a Fire passed over.. Think of it like an 'On-Property, Emergency Personal-Storage Space' - just something 'Closer than Town' / yer Other BOLs, that could - for a Short duration - 'shelter' the most critical of Items (even whole Stuffed-Subarus, etc..)

..And whether a 'fire-door' was needed / desired or not, could get decided, later, but.. Idea, here, is more along the lines of a) NO 'flammable brush' anywhere Near it, and b) Under the Earth would provide a LOT of 'heat-shielding' from anything going on 'Over-Top' / around the area. And, 'off-season' / winter, etc, it could simply get 'boarded' / camo'd, etc, to keep Bears, etc from turning it into an Apt.

Yah, 'crazy idea' (and a Crazy-amount of Work, not to mention the Cost, etc) but.. 'CraziER' than what ya just Went thru? Only You can answer that.. Wasn't workable for My Property, but.. Maybe, at least, 'Food for thought', for you / yours..

..Once the obvious priorities where taken care of, it was very hard to decided what to take, and when. What was worth moving? What order? Do we pack up the kids toys? or leave them?

THAT is something I Also 'went thru', and - Because Our 'BOPlan' revolved around our ONE 'Conestoga Wagon' (https://www.homesteadingforum.org/threads/how-prepared-are-you.19450/page-2#post-592299) - and, thus, I was limited to THOSE 8x Pelicans / whatever Else could Fit in the Van.. I had to Really Hardcore 'segregate, sort and Decide', WHAT was Core-Critical - and what was Not. Came down to 'If it Fits - It Ships'.. If it Don't.. It Won't, Period. Yes, 'Hard to Do', but.. Had / Has to happen.

One thing that I thought was very important, was to keep an eye on the fire. It was hard to see directly from my house...

I - believe - you have a decent Drone, correct? Maybe look into one that - Could - 'fly / transmit That Far', if it had to? (I know several 'Mavic Pro's should do it (even With the 'noisy terrain' / trees, etc) And, I also know Those are a $everal-K investment (and, what if it crashes, etc ) but.. Would Certainly seem a 'valid Investment', for relieving You of precious time / energy, while still performing such Important 'recon'.. Again, just a thought.

One thing that was clear right away, is that if we only had hours, it wouldn't be enough. To truely get out 'everything' would mean shifting would could easily be, 100,000 pounds of stuff. ... I realized I had a huge hole in my plans. I had a good plan for bugging out.....I had no plan for MOVING...

(See 'Subterranian Culvert-Storage Hangar' idea, above..

..What IS valuable is the SYSTEMS I've built up for the years. The right tools, for the things I own, the countless little $5 items that I use, but have no value outside that system.
Spare cars worth almost nothing on the open market, but valuable to me. Things like fences, pipes, wiring, that can't be moved.....

I know Exactly what you mean about 'Systems' - Little 'jigs' You've fabbed, etc, that mean Nothing to Anyone but You.. but, to You, they're "Priceless".. For That-type stuff, for Me, again - 'Pelican to the Rescue'.. I have a Full-Fledged / could do 90% of repairs / cutting / drilling / tapping / riveting, etc Tool-box in a Pelican 0450, and.. If NOTHING else Could Go - I'd be "ok" with Just that One case. (and Yes, it has all my 'jigs' et al) If I need them? I just drag the Peli to wherever I'm working (and it's bloody 110#s But if it Has to Go, NOW - it Can. No time spent 'pulling from the bench'..

For that 'Other Homestead-Only-Priceless Stuff', again.. See 'Subterranian Culvert-Storage Hangar' idea, above..

I got lucky.
That was the conclusion I came to. All the work, the sacrifice of months of life....none of it meant anything. Nothing I did effected the outcome. ...
Despite all my preps to fight fire, when faced with the moment of decision, I blinked. I hedged my bets. I went with half measures.

YOU LEARNED. That Means Everything.

This almost deserves a thread on to itself. Its a topic I have been thinking about for many many years at this point.

..Detection works both ways. ...Your signature is as big as the cleared area, even if the house is actually small.

One Other idea from My 'BOL-planning': What I had planned to Do, to 'camo' Our 'Flammable-brush / Tree-Free Zone' (post-clearing them all) - was Literally - to build a 'Camo-Net Wall' - 7.5' High, by ~ a 600' Perimiter (which, is really Not 'all That big', on each side..) for that 'Core'.. I got enough of These: https://military-tent.com/camonets.html ..to Cut them in 1/2 (longitudinally) and make 7.5' x 15' panels that could get 'hung' from 8' Posts (and 1' of concrete in the ground), that could Then get 'ghilliefied' with Other leaves, etc, and provide a 'decent cover', for that Core-Perimeter...

..No, not 'Total coverage', but.. Likely as-good as the Pines / smaller trees that Were there.. But a Lot Less 'fuel' if a fire came thru. Again, just an idea. (and - Don't you have like a Ton of 'golf netting'? Might that be useful? Not assuming, just a thought..)

..By far, the biggest threat in any fire to a home, is blowing embers that get under porches, into your attic, etc. Its very common after fires that destroy houses....to see unburnt trees all around the house...

Yep: AAR - After Action Reports: aka, 'What I Learned from the School of Hard Knocks'.. (..look at that 'shed - right next to the Garage - with a Honda Civic in it - that went up, Because of those 'open vents'.. Oh well, 'lesson learned' for Them (maybe )

Closest of mine are about 30 yards away - but they are in that fire retardant category. Fleshy plants won't burn and they soak up radiant heat during that peak minute or two of a severe fire event/storm...

Aye. One Other idea we had for 'Crafting a Perimeter-Curtain' (aside from the 'Core-shielding' idea via Camo-nets, above..) was I looked into planting 'Our Zone-Tolerant / Fastest-Growing Bamboo available'.. And, more than One variety was not only 'Ok with the cold / snow', but we would have had 20'ers in a Year..

THAT stuff, would (IMO) make an Excellent 'privacy curtain', and Should-be Quite 'fire-resistant', while still Green and healthy.. (and, I'm Sure I needn't preach about All the 'Amazing uses for Bamboo-Wood', later on down the road, right?

Anyway.. Just some ideas to chew on, I'll shuddup, now. Very Glad you guys dodged this bullet Aer. Live, Learn, and Move Forward.

jd