South Africa Water Shortage Scenario

[CrackbottomLouis]

Don't know how many are keeping up with what's going on in SA. Cape town in particular. Severe water shortage has lead to water rationing and the situation is actually pretty serious if they don't get rain soon. They are about a month or so away from the taps running dry. I have been talking with my cousin that lives in Cape town about his assessment of the situation his concerns and his preparations. It has been an interesting line of thought for me and I thought it would be a good scenario to run through here.

My cousin is pretty squared away. Has a large store of fresh water (3500 gallons), food, a desalinator that allows him to process 100 liters per day, is an accomplished shooter with many quality weapons and about 15k rounds of ammo, and has a solid social network of likeminded folks.

His main concern is not lack of water. It is severe social unrest from the unprepared. He does live in town by the beach. He has a more remote location (a farm he uses for hunting) but travel to it from his location through the city would be difficult during social unrest and being away from the ocean will make desalinating water a non option. He does not have a boat and the seas and bay of Capetown can often be rough especially if you catch them at the wrong time.

Although his house is well constructed out of stone it does not have a metal roof. I think my main concerns would be fire and being able to bug out with a wife and kid. Anyway, it's been an interesting mental exercise for me and figured I'd open it up for discussion as a lot of the folks here came from a prepping site. What would some of your concerns be and maybe some "out of the box" solutions to them?

 

[The Lazy L]

... What would some of your concerns be and maybe some "out of the box" solutions to them?

If I was he, I would be thinking, "Who else knows I have 3,500 gallons of water?"

 

[Meerkat]

Don't know how many are keeping up with what's going on in SA. Cape town in particular. Severe water shortage has lead to water rationing and the situation is actually pretty serious if they don't get rain soon. They are about a month or so away from the taps running dry. I have been talking with my cousin that lives in Cape town about his assessment of the situation his concerns and his preparations. It has been an interesting line of thought for me and I thought it would be a good scenario to run through here.

My cousin is pretty squared away. Has a large store of fresh water (3500 gallons), food, a desalinator that allows him to process 100 liters per day, is an accomplished shooter with many quality weapons and about 15k rounds of ammo, and has a solid social network of likeminded folks.

His main concern is not lack of water. It is severe social unrest from the unprepared. He does live in town by the beach. He has a more remote location (a farm he uses for hunting) but travel to it from his location through the city would be difficult during social unrest and being away from the ocean will make desalinating water a non option. He does not have a boat and the seas and bay of Capetown can often be rough especially if you catch them at the wrong time.

Although his house is well constructed out of stone it does not have a metal roof. I think my main concerns would be fire and being able to bug out with a wife and kid. Anyway, it's been an interesting mental exercise for me and figured I'd open it up for discussion as a lot of the folks here came from a prepping site. What would some of your concerns be and maybe some "out of the box" solutions to them?

My neighbor moved from Cape Town SA about 15 years ago. he said it was getting real crazy so he came here. My first move would be to move. Bless their hearts hope they are all ok. Our ancestors moved here fro less reasons.

 

[backlash]

If people are dying of thirst and they find out he has 3500 gallons of water there is no way he can protect it.
He may have enough fire power to hold off a few but no way he could survive several hundred or thousands of desperate people.
If it was me I would be getting out of town now while he has a chance. If he waits it will be too late fast.

 

[tiffanysgallery]

Cape Town, South Africa relies on local reservoirs instead of multiple resources for water, and has grown over a million people over the last decade. Too many people, too fast, now too little water...

I don't live in Cape Town so i don't know what avenues to take for this situation. My guess would be to obey the water rules set in place and when it does rain have a catch system ready. I would also plan to move to a town that has a better water supply system, if possible, but i might wait until my reserves are close to being exhausted before i uproot to a new unknown area. imo.

If chaos starts to erupt, that's a different scenario.

https://law.stanford.edu/2018/02/06/running-out-of-water-cape-town-the-u-s-and-drought/

 

[TMT Tactical]

Without knowing the layout of his property but just the fact his roof is combustible is enough reason to be getting out NOW. Yes he could shoot hundreds of people if required to defend but people would rather burn it all down and nobody have the water ,than somebody who planned ahead to have the water. If they can't get to the water, they will burn him out. Being the only source of water is untenable. Glad that he planned ahead but not enough planning to withstand this situation. He would need a mini army to defend his home from the huge crowds. Please advise your friend to pack up family and leave now. The city will get even more dangerous as the shut off day approaches. JM2C.

 

[Sentry18]

Since I presume just moving is not really an option, I would start praying to Chiuta the African God of Rain. Then I would start looking for trustworthy people who also have guns, ammo and skills and bring them on board the water for mutual assistance & protection program. One gun and one shooter is not near the deterrent that 15 guns and 15 shooters is.

 

[CrackbottomLouis]

Not so much worried about my cousin. He is not the only one who plans ahead in that area, has many likeminded friends, and all of the police (that are worth a damn) in that area are actually private police forces that are more akin to a paramilitary force and are actually owned by close family there.

I was just using the situation as a mental exercise and thinking through what I would think and do in that situation and I found the line of thought interesting. For example, I completely agree about the opsec comments. It made me think through every person that may have an inkling I prepare. I would probably address the combustible roof and have a fire suppressant system that didn't require the use of my fresh water. I would try and organize with my neighbors for general defense and, if possible, a defended route to and from the ocean to make use of my desalinator. Maybe help get some useful neighbors squared away as they begin to see they may be late to the preparation table. What if full scale rioting doesn't occur but crime just becomes worse at night? Is there a way to alter my vehicle in a way that makes exfil from the city safer? Should I organize travel plans with my neighbors for safety in numbers instead of being a lone vehicle with 1 shooter, a driver and my child? How would I communicate with the forces trying to maintain order? Do I have a relationship with them that makes me and mine a priority in a bad spot?

I like these mental exercises as they help me evaluate my preparations in a new light at times. I did the same thing with the situation in Venezuela. The duration of that mess made me reconsider the amount of preparations I consider acceptable to have on hand. Just thought it would be interesting. An online wargaming session. When I was in the military we did training on op orders for our unit. We chose a zombie apocalypse for fun and decided what we would do as a unit in different stages of the scenario. Formulated plans, contingencies, etc. It was fun and useful.

 

[The Innkeeper]

@CrackbottomLouis always worthwhile to run the different scenarios

 

[Meerkat]

Without knowing the layout of his property but just the fact his roof is combustible is enough reason to be getting out NOW. Yes he could shoot hundreds of people if required to defend but people would rather burn it all down and nobody have the water ,than somebody who planned ahead to have the water. If they can't get to the water, they will burn him out. Being the only source of water is untenable. Glad that he planned ahead but not enough planning to withstand this situation. He would need a mini army to defend his home from the huge crowds. Please advise your friend to pack up family and leave now. The city will get even more dangerous as the shut off day approaches. JM2C.

I agree. It is very risky to stay.

 

[TMT Tactical]

CBL. I really like your line of reasoning. If you can not live way out in the boonies (complete isolation), then you have to plan to defend. Even in the boonies, I still think you need to plan to defend. Anywhere near a city, then home defense is as important as stocking up on supplies. Sentry is right, a small defense force is required to defend a home. Force multiplier are not a recommended option in and about city environments. Very close neighbors (same street -- field of view) ready to defend is required in a urban / suburban uprising. Now this is going to sound really bad but if your neighbors are not part of the defense force, then they should be considered as part of the problem. Vehicles can hardened but not bullet proofed in most cases. Lining the door panels with canned goods can slow or even stop bullets. Water soaked telephone books will also slow or stop bullets. Not the best options but better than just plain sheet metal. OPsec is a critical factor. Don't paint a bullseye on your front door by sharing your prep plans OR defensive plans with anybody not actively participating in the actual neighborhood defense. There are only two members Pess (past forum member ) and Venom Jockey who I feel are going to be safe in a major societal SHTF event. Many here do have food and firearms but could not defend against a concentrated attack (NOTE: That also includes ME). I am not criticizing anyone's preps or plans, I am just pointing out my take on the situation. Those that end up without are going to want and need to take it from those that do have it. Too many time through out history it has been proven out --- that the strong will attack the weaker to get the needed supplies. JM2C

 

[Weedygarden]

I have been hearing the news about the water shortage. There has been water rationing, but people are thumbing their noses at the rationing. I wouldn't want to be there, but I thought it will be an interesting scenario to watch how it plays out.