“Chaos comes in grades and flavors...”

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Grizzleyette___Adams

Hermit on the mountain
Neighbor
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Feb 1, 2018
Messages
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From Ol’ Remus at http://www.woodpilereport.com/


The dark and dangerous times following a catastrophic collapse are often imagined as violence without direction or purpose, save momentary advantage and survival. For most it serves well as a working assumption when norms, violated more than observed, cease to be norms. But like anything else, chaos comes in grades and flavors. There is survival value in knowing what they've been in the past.

Roaming refugees. These are the locusts that swarm after a collapse, able to strip a community by weight of numbers. Typically hungry, desperate, leaderless and abandoned by leadership material, they're drifters and opportunists. Small communities are overrun and looted in the manner of a flash mob. Bug-in preppers are the bon bons of preference for the more capable among them. Well sited survival communities are unlikely to be in the path of roaming refugees.

Gangs. Existing gangs are specialists dependent on a functioning urban environment. Once the cities and suburbs are stripped, "street smarts" are useless and they become parasites without a host. Surviving famine and scarcity takes a different set of skills, and the learning curve is steep. Ethnocentric gangs are most likely to remain intact, but most likely to attack each other. Pointlessly aggressive and impatient by nature, they're a more dangerous subset of roaming refugees. The more ambitious gangs are marauders in the making. A survival community should overestimate their capabilities.

Marauders. In war, marauders are bands of military adventurers that strike at unexpected targets from an unexpected direction in unexpected ways. Unlike commandos deployed against high value targets, the marauder has a general mandate best described as "extreme cost effectiveness". Seasoned marauders are inventive, patient, and have an almost otherworldly ability to sniff out opportunity. The safer a survival community believes itself to be, the more vulnerable it is to marauders.

Partisans. At the outset these will be existing militia, typically modelled as light infantry except without recourse to heavy weapons support, self-armed and trained primarily as skirmishers. Their first task is likely to be defending their home community from roaming refugees and gangs. As the emergency devolves other partisans will arise, some as patriotic resistance outfits, some as mercenaries for warlords with territorial ambitions, some warranting response in kind and some qualifying as candidates for an alliance. Partisans see a survival community as a source of supplies and recruits, either theirs or their enemy's.

Government and quasi-government. Drastic downsizing will pressure fiefdoms with overlapping authority to battle for supremacy. Even within government no one will be sure who is king and who is not king. Subjugating and exploiting the productive territories that sustain them will be government's only real job. The classic morphing of government will accelerate—every bureaucracy wants to be a police force, every police force wants to be an army. Martial law is a given, there will be no civil liberties. A survival community careless enough to draw their attention will have some hard times ahead.


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I’d like to add to that list:

(I borrowed some of this from one of my previous posts, so my apologies if some of this is familiar to you.)


Walmartians (those who are dependent on Walmart being open 24/7):

You have preps and the Walmartians down the road are wild-eyed because their pantries are bare... It will eventually be apparent to anyone with eyes that you and yours are better fed than most. Hmmm... what then?

The best way to winning a gunfight is not being a target. I want to look like I don’t have anything worth fighting for. No food, no nuthin’, just like them.

I have in my preps oversized clothing to look like I have lost some weight, just like everyone else. I also have a stash of makeup that I can use to appear to look gaunt. It is incredibly amazing how just how far a bit of applied deception can go... A little hint of brown under the eyes, and just under the cheekbones can do wonders. No makeup handy? Well-placed smudges of ashes and charcoal from burnt wood works well. (I already use this instead of spending money on commercial camo face stuff in the deer woods, lol.)


Other survivalists:

Please forgive me for bringing to light this disturbing info, but it needs saying: More than a few times over the years, I have read polls and comments from posters on several survivor-type forums that caused me to lose sleep. Cannibalism IS in the plans of more that a few people...I was shocked at the sheer number of people who said they would do such a thing, and how... oh geeze. I can't unsee this, so I prepped for that too.

OK then, hopefully, my theatrical makeup will come in handy in that department too. Who wants to eat long pork that is infected with boils or some weird looking disease, and looks quite sick? And smells like poop, too? (If the going gets that bad, I plan on smearing a few pieces of cloth with dung, and tucking it here and there in my clothes, if needed.) I will resort to anything to be as unappetizing as possible.

Don’t think it will ever come to that? More than a few historical accounts strongly suggest it will be very likely, especially given the current lack of humanity during these “good times.”

And, one day there may be serious shortage of firepower... What are your plans, then?

Do you have anything like “Plan F” in place for security/defense? If not, this might be a good time to explore Plan A, B, C..... F

As in last-ditch options.

What say you?
 
We will bug-in but I expect to be over-run and killed at some point if there ever is no rule-of-law. My plan is to make them pay dearly. To that end, if the time ever comes (not likely) I have many plans for force multipliers.
We do live in a rather remote area but there is a highway that passes by. Many will likely come to hunt the large supply of wild game in this area and fish the many small lakes. If there is no-rule-of-law it will be Very ugly. I have the capability to be totally heartless and vicious. Let's pray it never becomes necessary to be something we don't want to be just to survive.
 
Roaming Refugees: These folks are going to require a people to harden their hearts and homes. Any form of compassion is going to result in being overrun and most likely killed or seriously injured (same result in a true SHTF event). Lack of leadership does not make them less dangerous, just the opposite. Leaders will avoid painful targets, mobs will just attack.

Gangs: The weak spot on gangs it location and time. They require their own territory to function and do not have the supplies and logistics for long term action. They are cannibals in the sense they will attack everything, including other gangs and eventually each other as supplies quickly run out.

Marauders: This is the second most dangerous group, in my opinion. Better training and organization than gangs but just as lethal, if not more so. They will strike at lesser targets to avoid un-needed losses from their group. They will scout and plan attacks to maximize reward and minimize loss. The best defense from Marauders is to try and stay off their radar.

Partisans: In my opinion this is the most dangerous group. Training, logistic, communication, and committed in their beliefs. They my start out with good intentions but degrade into a Kingdom mentality and have the ability to carry out their plans or ambitions. The major problem with this group is their belief they are ACTING for the good of all. The END justifies the means will be a very powerful motivator for this group.

Government and Quasi-government: This group will come into play if the SHTF event lasts long enough (many years if not decades required). In the beginning, this group will more dangerous to themselves than to others. The longer the SHTF event last, the more this group will grow in power and dangerous potential. Given enough time, this group will gather massive resources and weaponry and become the New World Order. The survivors, not associated with these groups, will end up like the American Indian, dead or on reservations (think labor camps).


Other Notes:

Walmartians: These are the folks with 3 days worth of food and supplies. They are going to be the ones joining / forming the mobs. This is were you play the Grey Man. Do not venture out unless absolutely mandated. Then look (makeup), dress and act like the starving masses. Ask everybody you see or meet for food and supplies. Be armed and do not hesitate to use it if the situation starts to degrade.

Survivalist: Cannibalism is a possibility but certainly would have to be considered a last option. It has happen in the past and in the right circumstances, it will happen in the future. The key is to not become the main course. This horrific event would happen during the survival phase and generally not during the rebuilding phase. I see safety in numbers during the rebuilding phase but I don't see it during the survival phase. Look at it this way. I would be very difficult to eat little Janie but not so difficult to eat Jane Doe. The fact that some of these Survival groups are talking about eating LONG PORK (as Grizzleyetta_Adms pointed out) is enough of a reason for me avoid groups during the survival phase of a SHTF event. JM2C
 
Walmartians...that cracks me up. You know with the make up and the clothes to blend in reminds me of that Zombie movie where old what's his name stayed in his mansion and just dressed up like a zombie until those kids raided his house and thought he was a real one and shot him.

Bill Murray in Zombie Land.
 
All folks will get hit hard during the survival phase. The weak will die and the strong from each group survive and band together out of necessity. Maybe not in large groups in most cases but 5-10 immoral intelligent hardened survivors would be dangerous to most. Then you'll have the quasi gov forces made up of marauders, gangs, refugees, and walmartians. The direction the group takes will be decided upon which person in the group has the leadership qualities that allows them to control the rest. This will be one of the most dangerous threats to survival communities or folks that bug in. I'd count on the threat having members with military training/experience, local knowledge, and the ability to flip assets like informants for intel purposes. I'd also expect them to be well equipped with the ability to think outside the box and act in an unexpected manner. It will be difficult to "stay off the radar" and I doubt tricks like oversized clothes and make up will work for long although any edge is worth a try. Trying your best to stay off the radar with a small but capable group set up in a location that would make an attack an extremely costly venture for aggressors with a well rehearsed bug out plan and a mutual aid pact with other similarly minded groups is a good answer imo. Defending infrasture and having prepositioned necessities in case of bug out will be key as will be force multipliers like comms, weapons, transportation, local intel, surveillance capabilities, adequate individual and group training, competent leadership, etc. Look at how the pagans in Britain set up their early forts. It was just a hilltop with rings of defenses/fall back positions the higher up the hill they went. The point wasnt to be impregnable. It was to make attacking them such a costly proposition that lower hanging fruit was more desirable to aggressors. It's a good concept to keep in mind if you can adapt it to allow for considerations like modern weapons and a bugout option so the top of the hill isnt littered with your dead like what happened to the pagans when the Roman's came through.
 
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After the first month or less the bad guys that are still alive will be Very well armed. There are many hundreds of millions of guns in the USA. Civilians will be easy targets for snipers and then the sniper will take whatever weapons they want from the dead. Even a 22 rifle could be used by a sniper if he knew what he was doing. They are deadly at well over 100 yards.
There are about 20 million of what the media would call "assault rifles" in the USA. Many millions of accurate, scoped deer rifles.
Everyone that steps outside in the daylight would be a potential sniper target and everyone would have to go outside at some point to take care of their garden or their livestock or get water. Don't believe you have the ability spot a sniper that is a 1/4 mile or more away from you. Rural preppers would be the targets of choice for snipers because of the pay-off in food and other supplies.
For those that say- "I have a dog who would let me know if someone is there", the first target would be the dog. If it was me I would just shoot the dog in the hind quarters and when you went to help your dog I would put you down. If there were a group, the sniper could just take one every day so, shoot and run. Then return the next day or maybe 3 days later. And get real, you would not be able to track down even a semi-knowledgeable sniper.

Surviving the end times would be 10% skill, 10% preparations, and 80% luck.
 
@hiwall : I have to agree with your assessment. 10% skill, 10% prep and 80% luck. No matter how well you plan and prepare, if you encounter the wrong group / person, you are going to be toast. I bet the at least 98% of all homesteads and not designed with defense in mind. As hiwall pointed out, stand off sniper would eventually decimate the holdings. A firearm channel ad a nice slogan " Just because you out of sight, does not mean you are out of range".

@CrackbottomLouis : I also agree with your analogy. Once the initial weeding out part of the survival phase is over (the weak and completely unprepared are dead) the the leadership of the survivors is going to direct the groups that form together. A leader with smarts and morals, a you have viable community defense. If the leader is smart and lacks morals, then you will have the warlords. This is were the luck part comes into play, will the good group or the bad group discovery your location. Sooner or later your compound is going to be discovered, even VenomJockey and Pess know their place will not be immune from discovery, just not likely. If a quasi-government force has air craft, then even a mountain Retreat is not completely safe. As there is really no completely safe structures. As pointed out by CBL, you can hope to be the expensive meal and not the low hanging fruit but you cannot control the events. There are no perfect defense but you can and should plan for YOUR best defense.
 
Living like a partisian/insurgent/ light infantry would be best if you can manage it. Several small fire teams of 4 that can spread out and hide out in a large wilderness where there are many hidden caches of supplies. Constantly moving, well camouflaged, hole up during the day move at night. Comms with other fire teams, night vision/thermals, solar battery chargers. Being able to eliminate threats at a distance and/or quietly. Hard to do as we get older and can't cover 20-30 miles overland with a pack, have kids or a family, medical issues, live in more extreme climates, live in a population dense area, etc. Only attack threats from the shadows when the odds are in your favor. Lend a helping hand to those who can't live like that when you are able to do so with minimal risk to you and yours.
 
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Some good perspectives. I like how the different groups were classified.
Though I am unsure why "Partisans" were covered in a way they were especially when remnants of Gov't are considered a threat.

By definition partisans aka insurgents to use a more modern term fight Gov't not the people.
On the contrary Partisans count on the sympathies and support of the people for their success.

And tho, I am sure it has happend on occasion, it would be a foolish partisan commander indeed to allowed himself to be perceived as a threat by the people.
 
Some good perspectives. I like how the different groups were classified.
Though I am unsure why "Partisans" were covered in a way they were especially when remnants of Gov't are considered a threat.

By definition partisans aka insurgents to use a more modern term fight Gov't not the people.
On the contrary Partisans count on the sympathies and support of the people for their success.

And tho, I am sure it has happend on occasion, it would be a foolish partisan commander indeed to allowed himself to be perceived as a threat by the people.

You are correct about the partisians. Wasnt trying to lump them together just trying to represent them as a viable group along with the others. I fixed it in my original post.
 
@CrackbottomLouis @BlueZ : Okay to play devil's advocate. The Viet Cong could have been considered a Partisan Group and they killed villagers that did not agree with their point of view. the French resistance was an example of good partisans, so partisans can be both good or evil, depending on where the people fall in the partisans outlook. A government attempting to rebuild will fall under the same conditions, are they doing good for the survivors or becoming the new warlords. It is not the name or title of the group but the actions of the group that will determine if they have a positive connotation or a negative connotation attached to their labels.
 
@CrackbottomLouis @BlueZ : Okay to play devil's advocate. The Viet Cong could have been considered a Partisan Group and they killed villagers that did not agree with their point of view. the French resistance was an example of good partisans, so partisans can be both good or evil, depending on where the people fall in the partisans outlook. A government attempting to rebuild will fall under the same conditions, are they doing good for the survivors or becoming the new warlords. It is not the name or title of the group but the actions of the group that will determine if they have a positive connotation or a negative connotation attached to their labels.

Yeah, it'll all come down to who has the capability to assume leadership roles in any group. There are always more followers than effective leaders. Head of the snake and all that. To paraphrase one of my favorite lines from the patriot "if the conduct of your officers is the standard of a gentleman I'll take that as a compliment. As long as your officers order the targeting of women and children I will order the targeting of your officers at the onset of every engagement. And my men are excellent marksmen."
 
Roaming Refugees: These folks are going to require a people to harden their hearts and homes. Any form of compassion is going to result in being overrun and most likely killed or seriously injured (same result in a true SHTF event).


Thank you TMT Tactical for your input which also reminded me to add to the list, a subcategory of roaming refugees:


Seemingly helpless ones.


Historically speaking, women and children have been used by villainous individuals or groups as "bait" because this time-worn tactic works so well. Children, women, and women with children have been successfully used as spies, decoys, and accomplices for those who want an easy way into a targeted home or camp.

The only true defense against this type of depredation is to harden your home...and your heart. In a widespread, prolonged and severe SHTF situation there will not ever be "just one" that seems to need help. Over time, there would likely be many helpless and (seemingly helpless) children, women, and women with children.

Aside from the possibility of being baited and deceived, there are other considerations to weigh:

It tears my heart: I know there is no way I could effectively take care of all the helpless ones that will likely cross my path during a severe and prolonged event. Even if I could, for a limited time...Where to draw the line? After resources become so thin that we are all in danger, my household and those I take in? Especially if there will be no predicting just how long or severe future times will be. Now, if it were a case of a reasonable return to normalcy and if I felt sure that my household would not be in danger of depredation, starvation, or in the event of a pandemic: diseases brought in by my guests, I would consider it. But, that's a lot of ifs.

What troubles me, is the sheer number of those who would be needing help which would quickly deplete my resources and my household's chances of survival if I allowed it.

That natural mother hen instinct is strong with me to protect my family first, and by extension, to help the helpless in a way that does not bring harm to those I am responsible for. Tricky situation.

If possible, I would like to knock myself out to find a way to sneak ahead of a downtrodden child on the road, and leave a "care package" in plain sight, in such a way that it could be perceived as something accidentally lost or left behind, not deliberately planted. But I am realistic enough to know that if this is not possible, I may have to harden my heart.

If you think you can take care of every poor and downtrodden woman and child in your path, and you have ample resources and are sure they are not decoys, there are other serious considerations:

Outsiders can endanger your household by bringing in calamities that are not immediately apparent: diseases that can be deadly or severely debilitating in austere conditions (think: no doctors and a limited supply of effective medicines), and dangerous mental illnesses that are not yet obvious. For example, sociopaths and psychopaths of all ages are pros in the art of deceptive charisma to put victims at ease, they lie through their teeth to get what they want, and have no human emotions or regard for another’s suffering or death. This type of mental illness can go undetected by parents, close friends and even their mates for many years. How will you ever know if your new houseguests can be trusted? You won’t. By the time you realize something is horribly wrong, it may be too late. Is this the gamble you are willing to take?

Personally speaking with all of these considerations in mind, in the event of a widespread, prolonged and severe SHTF situation, I would never open the door to anyone, not even a child. It is my duty to first ensure the safety of my household. If I didn't then I would be grossly negligent.

You can’t save the world, but with diligence, you may be able to save yourself and your household.


 
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After the first month or less the bad guys that are still alive will be Very well armed. There are many hundreds of millions of guns in the USA. Civilians will be easy targets for snipers and then the sniper will take whatever weapons they want from the dead. Even a 22 rifle could be used by a sniper if he knew what he was doing. They are deadly at well over 100 yards.
There are about 20 million of what the media would call "assault rifles" in the USA. Many millions of accurate, scoped deer rifles.
Everyone that steps outside in the daylight would be a potential sniper target and everyone would have to go outside at some point to take care of their garden or their livestock or get water. Don't believe you have the ability spot a sniper that is a 1/4 mile or more away from you. Rural preppers would be the targets of choice for snipers because of the pay-off in food and other supplies.
For those that say- "I have a dog who would let me know if someone is there", the first target would be the dog. If it was me I would just shoot the dog in the hind quarters and when you went to help your dog I would put you down. If there were a group, the sniper could just take one every day so, shoot and run. Then return the next day or maybe 3 days later. And get real, you would not be able to track down even a semi-knowledgeable sniper.

Surviving the end times would be 10% skill, 10% preparations, and 80% luck.

Snipers added to the list of grades and flavors! Thank you for this valuable contribution and food for thought.
 
Here is a nice video that might help to mitigate the sniper problem (hattip to Vader):



From Wikipedia (hattip to Bunkerbuster):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter-sniper_tactics

NOTE: the Wikipedia article details military tactics, but some principles can apply to any situation, including:

Locating an attacking sniper
Because snipers use camouflage, choose their firing positions carefully, and often attack from long distances, they are difficult to locate. Gunfire locators have been developed to do this. These may sense a variety of signatures including:

When the trajectory of the bullet can be sensed, backtracking can be done to calculate the sniper's location. Sensor techniques are often used in combination to improve detection and eliminate false alarms.[1]

Sniper vs. sniper
A friendly sniper is generally the most effective counter-sniper tool. With similar training, knowledge of the surroundings, and equipment, the friendly sniper can offer advice to the squad, enhanced searching capability, and combat the enemy sniper directly. When told what to watch for, the squad can also act as additional eyes and ears for the friendly sniper. Aside from watching over the squad, the friendly sniper also has the option to detach and engage the enemy sniper. Without any outside help from the squad, the respective skills of each sniper play a significant role in determining victory.

Triangulation: technique at two or more locations can more accurately identify the position of a sniper at the time of firing.

  • Sound delay ("crack-bang"): The enemy's supersonic bullets produce a sonic boom, creating a "crack" sound as they pass by. If the enemy's bullet speed is known, their range can be estimated by measuring the delay between the bullet's passing and the sound of the rifle shot, then comparing it to a table of values. This is only effective at distances of up to 450 meters; beyond this, the delay continues to increase, but at a rate too small for humans to distinguish accurately. Also, in urban areas, the sound can give inaccurate results because the buildings in the area can relay false sound directions.
  • Detector: A 'sniper detector' system, named Boomerang, was developed through DARPA and can determine the bullet type, trajectory, and point of fire of unknown shooter locations. The system uses microphone sensors to detect both the muzzle blast and the sonic shock wave that emanate from a high-speed bullet. Sensors detect, classify, localize and display the results on a map immediately after the shot. The system sensors are usually mounted on a vehicle. The United States military is also funding a project known as RedOwl, which uses laser and acoustic sensors to determine the exact direction from which a sniper round has been fired. The RedOwl system has been tested on the PackBot robot from iRobot Corporation.[2]

Counter-attacking the sniper
Once a sniper's position is known or suspected:

.....

  • Smoke screen: In urban settings or other environments with limited movement and fields of view, smoke can be an effective means to screen friendly movement. This can be used either to pass through and escape, or to close in on and eliminate the enemy sniper. Ordinary soldiers can still do damage through smoke by firing randomly or on intuition, but snipers lose their precision advantage and are far less likely to hit anything with their much lower possible shot volume. A determined enemy, such as an emplaced heavy machine gun, will fire randomly through smoke, so this is a dangerous tactic. It should also be noted that weapons of opportunity may also provide a smoke screen, anything from igniting a car's gas tank, oil drum, or using fragmentation grenades to throw up debris and quickly break line of sight and concentration. Flash-bang (distraction) grenades have a wider blast radius than fragmentation grenades.
 
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A good sniper shoots very little. He will only shoot if he can make a good hit. A single shot that is not repeated is very hard to locate. Also in the scenario we are discussing, it is not like a military operation. In this scenario the sniper would most likely wait until the target was alone. One shot and the target would not even hear it because the bullet travels much faster than the sound. With the target alone, by the time someone else realizes that a party member was shot the sniper would have moved on and would return another day.
In some areas the sound of the shot would bounce off things like, buildings, hills/mountains, forest edges, etc that would make even locating which general direction the shot came from very difficult. Again a good sniper will wait until just one shot will do the job. The exception would be when there are two targets and after the first is shot if the second one stands still and looks for the distant shooter he would make an excellent target for a second kill.
Walk a quarter mile from your house in different directions just to see how far that is, and that is not even a hard shot for someone who is used to shooting and can afford to pick his shots.
Also a surprising number of people now own suppressors for their rifles. What many call silencers. Acquiring one of these would be a big benefit for a sniper. There are down sides too of course, a suppressor changes point of impact so the gun would have to be sighted-in with the suppressor in place. The suppressor quiets the gun but does not make it silent. The suppressor adds length and weight to the rifle (or pistol).
A good rifleman with a good rifle could make half mile shots. Think about that for awhile.
Civilian night vision scopes are not very common so I would expect most sniper problems would happen during daylight hours though a good sniper could plan for a shot just before sundown so he had a much better chance to get away safely.

In the environment we are discussing here it is not all roses for the sniper either. One would assume that he would also be hunted all the time. Even if he made a good shot on his target there could be another un-related person nearby that he was unaware of and the sniper would make a tempting target himself so his equipment could be seized. The sniper would have to reconnoiter the area well and could be spotted then and hunted down.

Other than snipers there is just the fact that most likely it would every-man-for-himself situation with Everyone armed all the time and many of us would be hunting to add to our food supply. A shot at game could draw unwanted attention. Also just being out in the woods you could stumble on to another hunter (or refugee) and in that case the faster draw might win.
Like I said above, once there is no rule-of-law the world would be a Very dangerous place for everyone.
 
@Grizzleyette___Adams : Wow, thanks for the follow up info.I did not know about many of these sound detection systems. That certainly brought my awareness up a level or three. I do think the urban sniper is going to b the most difficult to track down and eliminate. Concrete leaves very little in the way of footprints. Also as pointed out by hiwall, there would be less chance of accidental encounters. Your point about the "HelpLess" is absolutely 100 percent right on the target. The majority of the good folks (I am not one) would or will want to open their hearts and offer some type of assistance. This is a disastrous decision. As you so rightly pointed out, children and women have been used as bait since the dawn of time. During the survival phase of a SHTF event, you have to ask yourself some simple questions. (1) How did this child / woman survive long enough to find it's way to your door step / property? That is your first red flag. (2) What condition is the is person in? That is your second red flag. (3) What supplies / equipment is this person carrying? That is your third red flag. (1) The helpless do not survive in for any length of time during the survival phase in a SHTF event. Certainly not long enough to walk to your door step. (2) Is this person injured and decrepit from a difficult journey or simply dirty and underfed? A helpless person (Alone) is not going to be in very good shape, cuts, bruises, and serious injuries. Bait may be underfed and dirty but not seriously injured enough to slow down their captives. (3) A lack of equipment / supplies is an indicator they are being taken care by some other force (group) or they have stashed their stuff before showing up at your door step. Another major point made by Grizzleyetta was the mental issues. You have no possible way to know if a stranger is emotional and mentally safe to assist. Even if they don't turn on you , they will give you up as a source of supplies if captured by the bad guys. You must harden your heart and stick with the plan to stay isolated and just supportive of your family / group / community, NO OUTSIDERS period. The risk factor is to great and the reward (good feelings) too little. Once some reasonable semblance of law and order returns, then get involved in the rebuilding phase if you need to help out. But not during the survival phase.

@hiwall : Your points are right on track, in a rural / country environment, both good and bad snipers are going to be at risk. The bad sniper makes a kill of a group member and somebody is going to get on the snipers trail. Even if the sniper pulls off for a few days, you can bet somebody is trying to track that person down. One aspect I had not given thought was the accidental encounters. As you pointed out, your supplies and weapons are valuable and will put you at risk. That was an issue that had slipped my mind. I was looking at the issue from an isolate compound shooting / sniping at the bad guys but a simple hunting trip would also put the sniper at risk. Once the SHTF and there is no rule of law, then everybody is a risky encounter, even known people. Your neighbor may have run real low on ammo and now you look like the local Walmart to him. Supplies / weapons / ammo are going to be where you find them. I am designing the THH project to minimize the targeting opportunities for a sniper but that does not eliminate the possibility of a sniper attack. The survival phase is going to a very scary time for folks.
 
@Grizzleyette___Adams : . I am designing the THH project to minimize the targeting opportunities for a sniper but that does not eliminate the possibility of a sniper attack. The survival phase is going to a very scary time for folks.
If you build on a hill or rise you have a big advantage.
 
It will be built on a hill top. I am currently researching below grade green house to limit environmental control costs (energy savings) and also to have below grade access. This would allow food harvesting while limiting sniper opportunities. It THH will have 4 separate below grade green houses to limit cross contamination (pest control and equipment failure) and provide a better selection of crops. I plan to be able to defend the crops and still be able to harvest as needed. The only above ground food supply will be the chicken house and maybe a bee keeping operation. The rabbit cages will also be below grade. Again for protection and environmental control. The less visible, the less likely uninvited visitors will be stopping by.
 
I wish I could give this post 10 more 'likes':

@Grizzleyette___Adams

During the survival phase of a SHTF event, you have to ask yourself some simple questions.

(1) How did this child / woman survive long enough to find it's way to your door step / property? That is your first red flag.

(2) What condition is the is person in? That is your second red flag.

(3) What supplies / equipment is this person carrying? That is your third red flag.


I especially appreciated the considerations for the above questions:

(1) The helpless do not survive in for any length of time during the survival phase in a SHTF event. Certainly not long enough to walk to your doorstep.

(2) Is this person injured and decrepit from a difficult journey or simply dirty and underfed? A helpless person (Alone) is not going to be in very good shape, cuts, bruises, and serious injuries. Bait may be underfed and dirty but not seriously injured enough to slow down their captives.

(3) A lack of equipment / supplies is an indicator they are being taken care by some other force (group) or they have stashed their stuff before showing up at your doorstep.

Thank you, TMT Tactical for pointing out valid clues that could be easily overlooked in the "heat of the moment."
 
@Grizzleyette___Adams : Being the paranoid that I am, I tend to look for things that normal folks might not notice. During a true SHTF event the old saying of " The road to h3ll is paved with good intentions" is as true as it will ever get. Being the good Samaritan is a sure way to become a victim and not a survivor. Your post started the thought process rolling but each individual is going to have to decide for themselves what they are willing to risk for a stranger in need. You can drop the Tactical part, everybody know TMT --- the Reptile King. :cool:

I have really enjoyed this post as it provides many with food for thought. Your post and the replies did make me take a closer look at my thought process for a SHTF event. Food, water, shelter and defense are all part of the prepper plans or should be. You helped bring this discussion back up for more evaluation. Nasty situation are going to occur during a SHTF event and now is the time to plan how you are going to respond, not when these folks are knocking on your door. I do have to admit I am not much interested in the "Long Pork" concept but it is something to be aware of, during a true SHTF event. I don't plan to end up on anybodies menu. I would certainly make for a very poor meal.

As I understand it, you live in a very remote location and have an off the grid life style. I would be very interested in learning about your successes, failure and trails and tribulations. I also think many here would like to learn from actual first hand experience. It is easy to think you have got what it takes to make it in a grid down situation but quite another to learn from somebody that does it day after day. Just a real big hint for more posts from you.
 
While all of us on here have some kind of a stockpile of food and other supplies, we should still all be concerned about a slow decline. Venezuela is a great example. The decline there took YEARS. Stored food and other supplies were gradually used up and could not be replaced. So by the point it is at today, even the die hard preppers there are in the same boat as those that were never prepared for anything.
On a separate note here is an article that some might find worthwhile to read. It is just one man's opinion and I'm sure many will disagree with at least parts of this article.

Retired Green Beret: 7 Ways To Stay Alive In A Post-Collapse Society

1. Never travel anywhere alone
2. Never go anywhere unarmed
3.Never travel anywhere without the rest of the family/group knowing where you’re heading
4.Consider all strangers armed and potentially dangerous
5.Keep your distance when talking to strangers
6.Meeting strangers
7.Territory

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...beret-7-ways-stay-alive-post-collapse-society
 
@hiwall : Great post and even better link. While the link is not a homesteader site, it does provide substantial information in how to prepare for the human element in a major SHTF event. The 7 rules identified in your post are outstanding and while they may appear to be common sense, too many people will not have thought out the need to follow those rules. I have bookmarked the site link and will be spending more time in reading their articles. All the preps in the world will not help if you can't protect and keep them. I really liked the comparison on the long term storage problem associated with Venezuela and how the preppers eventually ran out of stored food. That point alone made the article worth reading. Thanks again for the site link.
 
Long pork, like so many other societal restrictions, is extremely dangerous. So many diseases can be transmitted to humans from humans that you are literally playing Russian Roulette.

Having said that, if I die and you are looking at starvation, help yourself. If you kill me to feast then that is totally different. Dahmer can roast for eternity.

There are numerous cases of groups surviving because of cannibalism. In 1972 a flight went down in the Andes with a rugby team aboard. Everyone knows of the Donner Party. There are numerous shipwreck situations. I don't hold a grudge against these people. As horrendous as it would be if I looked at my situation and considered myself dead by starvation I can't say that I wouldn't participate. I can't imagine that I would sleep well after.
 
@Grizzleyette___Adams : Being the paranoid that I am, I tend to look for things that normal folks might not notice. During a true SHTF event the old saying of " The road to h3ll is paved with good intentions" is as true as it will ever get. Being the good Samaritan is a sure way to become a victim and not a survivor. Your post started the thought process rolling but each individual is going to have to decide for themselves what they are willing to risk for a stranger in need. You can drop the Tactical part, everybody know TMT --- the Reptile King. :cool:

I have really enjoyed this post as it provides many with food for thought. Your post and the replies did make me take a closer look at my thought process for a SHTF event. Food, water, shelter and defense are all part of the prepper plans or should be. You helped bring this discussion back up for more evaluation. Nasty situation are going to occur during a SHTF event and now is the time to plan how you are going to respond, not when these folks are knocking on your door. I do have to admit I am not much interested in the "Long Pork" concept but it is something to be aware of, during a true SHTF event. I don't plan to end up on anybodies menu. I would certainly make for a very poor meal.

As I understand it, you live in a very remote location and have an off the grid life style. I would be very interested in learning about your successes, failure and trails and tribulations. I also think many here would like to learn from actual first hand experience. It is easy to think you have got what it takes to make it in a grid down situation but quite another to learn from somebody that does it day after day. Just a real big hint for more posts from you.

Lots of things to think about on this thread, I enjoyed it too. So ' bloke' hope we never have to dodge the bullet. :D
 

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