WHATEVER is Coming, where will the "SAFER" place be......???

[Alaskajohn]

Thanks for the kind words, Sourdough and Supervisors. Our "threat analysis/response" plan actually came from a course I was taking at business school couple years before I retired. It was called "Overgrowth Strategies in International Finance" or some other meaningless MBA-ish title, but the instructor was a retired Army O-6 who used to flog the idea of reducing survival plans (of a business, not necessarily "prepper" stuff; but it was the same idea) to numbers so as to better meet battle contingencies. (This was originated, I think, by Robert McNamara, which is why we lost Vietnam, but I digress....)

Anyway, each team was required to develop a situation where there were a lot of potentially damaging possibilities, determine the likelihood of each by measuring some sort of possibilities, determine which were the most likely, and then cutting a plan to "survive" them. We chose, in true prepper-ish fashion, to analyze the various ways in which the excrement would strike the air handler, and recommend a source of action to meet the challenges.

Obviously, we couldn't think of every possible schitt-storm, so we started by brainstorming all the possible hazards that we might see. No argument (yet); we each wrote down about six or seven threats to think about, ranging from "a truck hits a power pole, knocks out a major transformer, and leaves us in the dark for a week", "getting laid off from our job", "financial collapse", "general nuclear exchange", Yellowstone caldera eruption". and on and on. Then by voting on each, we narrowed them down to five or six that we agreed would be most likely, given how we saw the state of things.
Then, we designed a matrix to measure each problem:

• What's the chances of it happening within the next year?
• What's the chance of it happening within the next five years?
• How serious (lives lost, infrastructure degradation) will it be?
• How long will it last?
• How much will we have to spend (individually or as a group) to fix it?

Each of the parameters would be graded by consensus on a one-to-five scale, where one would be the least dire, while a five would be much more serious. This was difficult, and gave us some "interesting" answers when we added up each of the parameters and ran the statistical reduction crap on them.

Think about it. Knocking out the transformer gets a low score for happening within the next year, a higher number for "happening within the next five years", a medium score for "how serious". A Yellowstone caldera eruption would be VERY high in both "lives lost" and "cost to fix", but a VERY low number for "happening within the next year or five years". The final results -- and the recommendations in our paper -- were controversial, to say the least!

The team score for the analysis and report was a B+, which I guess was better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

About 2 decades ago I developed a threat analysis and action plan that I would annually and update a couple times a year. The action plan is reviewed daily.

I borrowed a bit from both my military training and from my MBA classes. I have found it helpful to have this structure to guide actions since we are so short of available time and finances to do everything on the list. Intelligence preparation, SWOT analysis, risk assessments, budgets, and actions plans, yada yada…. Also, I do a bit of prayer to help guide what I do as well. This help more than we know.

My action items all fit somewhere in a 5 year plan. Ten plus years ago I had many actions pushed out at the 5 year mark. Today I don’t have anything pushed out to 5 years, but I do have a couple action items with a 2 year horizon to complete. In my mind, if you aren’t systematic and diligent, you are just haphazardly going about it.

 

[lilmissy]

We ask, in order to be somewhat safe…. How close is public housing projects? How far would someone walk to find and look for someones garden to rob?

 

[Sourdough]

We ask, in order to be somewhat safe…. How close is public housing projects? How far would someone walk to find and look for someones garden to rob?

Carefully read your post. Is that really-really-really your plan.....??? I am not trying to be snarky or disrespectful.

 

[lilmissy]

Carefully read your post. Is that really-really-really your plan.....??? I am not trying to be snarky or disrespectful.

Thats not the whole plan. Safety is a big part of the plan and this was a question that has came up. Not with just my immediate family, others have also said, you can have all you need and when those around you do not have, they will be there to visit those who have. It is no different than someone looking for property that has no neighbors for miles. High rises, housing and such, house a lot of people. Not all of them will be prepared. But the majority of them will not be. It is no different than living in the city and having all the condos full of people. When you are in the country, there is no condo community, there is public housing.

 

[Haertig]

The "safer place to be" is probably what you already have and know well.

The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. At least that may make your grave look nice. Probably won't be of much help beyond that though. When the other side of the fence is owned by someone else, or is a place where everybody else decides is a good place to go, you may be needing that green grass grave covering sooner rather than later.

In 99% of the post apocalypse movies people are striving to get to XXX, and when they finally do get to XXX, they find it is worse than where they came from. That's probably the most realistic part of these films.

 

[Sourdough]

Thats not the whole plan. Safety is a big part of the plan and this was a question that has came up. Not with just my immediate family, others have also said, you can have all you need and when those around you do not have, they will be there to visit those who have. It is no different than someone looking for property that has no neighbors for miles. High rises, housing and such, house a lot of people. Not all of them will be prepared. But the majority of them will not be. It is no different than living in the city and having all the condos full of people. When you are in the country, there is no condo community, there is public housing.

You and others will not like this answer. I will wish I had not given it after I do. But "Damn the Torpedo's, Full speed ahead". This gets into the area that those with many-many decades and study have learned to no discuss.

*WHY*.....Because it exposes an abyss, that instantly enrages "preppers". On "PURE" prepping forums, NOTHING will instantly piss'off 95% of the members like answering the question of this thread. "NOTHING". It compels preppers to acknowledge that which most frightens them about prepping.

What terrifies preppers is what comes "AFTER" prepping ENDS. (Raw ugly Survival). Preppers "Think" prepping is survival. It may help, it may postpone, but it mostly (with luck) gives the prepper a window to transition mentally and physically what is coming.

 

[Old Whatshisname]

Mr. Sourdough, I tend to agree with you in a major point you make about how difficult life can be after the (pick one) great dieoff/zombies/climate disaster/nuclear fallout. Certainly, if there is to be a worldwide massive infrastructure collapse, three-quarters of the Earth's population will be dead within five years. Post-collapse society will likely engage in very small, very vicious wars as the people suddenly realize that they can't find what they want, or anyone nearby who'd be willing to trade... well, I guess it's 'take or be taken' time.

 

[Haertig]

You and others will not like this answer.

I like your answer just fine. I don't agree with it, but I like it. And it may be the solution for you. Maybe not for others though.

Your "safer place" appears to be out in "the middle of nowhere, Alaska". This is fine. I'll bet it's beautiful there. But it is one of the last places I'd want to be in the post apocalypse.

Your medical care will suck. Well, it won't just suck, it will be nonexistent.
Your communications will suck. You won't be able to get much information at all, if any, about what's going on around you.
You will be the last place on Earth to receive supply shipments. Nobody is going to routinely fight their way out there to resupply a recluse.
You will be on your own. Totally. This may sound appealing to some. But I'll bet in realty it will be a nightmare.
You will spend a ton of money stockpiling everything you would need to live out your life on your own. Most of that stockpile will probably never be used.

Now, I expect you would have just as many bad things to say about where I choose to live. And they are probably all true.

So it's not about if others like your answer or not. When you state it that way, it makes you sound like you think you alone have the answer, and the rest of us are just stupid morons. I just got a vision in my head of how you might feed yourself up there when there are no more supply shipments. Running down and tackling a wolverine for dinner. I'd have enough trouble running down a carrot - the alone in the wilderness lifestyle is just not appropriate for me.

 

[Neb]

You and others will not like this answer. I will wish I had not given it after I do. But "Damn the Torpedo's, Full speed ahead". This gets into the area that those with many-many decades and study have learned to no discuss.

*WHY*.....Because it exposes an abyss, that instantly enrages "preppers". On "PURE" prepping forums, NOTHING will instantly piss'off 95% of the members like answering the question of this thread. "NOTHING". It compels preppers to acknowledge that which most frightens them about prepping.

What terrifies preppers is what comes "AFTER" prepping ENDS. (Raw ugly Survival). Preppers "Think" prepping is survival. It may help, it may postpone, but it mostly (with luck) gives the prepper a window to transition mentally and physically what is coming.

I am reading Adam Smith's " The Wealth of Nations" that speaks of nature of trade, when specialization is effective and how transportation influences where free trade takes place.

Ben

 

[TENNGRIZZ]

It's going to be really bad ! Worse than most could ever imagine. Short Answer. There are No safe places anymore.

 

[Tirediron]

right where I am, been in this part of the country for 60 years, have roots here, and have some sort of connection to most people with roots here also. stacking "prepps" can come in handy, but skills and community are far far more important. I know where the resources are here, and most people not in the know would walk right by them

 

[Old Whatshisname]

right where I am, been in this part of the country for 60 years, have roots here, and have some sort of connection to most people with roots here also. stacking "prepps" can come in handy, but skills and community are far far more important. I know where the resources are here, and most people not in the know would walk right by them

I agree completely! No one -- at least no one who bothers to think about future possibilities - would start her preps without a plan; without a bit of kit for food water, heat and light, and something to aid in security; that makes as much sense as crossing the Santa Monica Freeway blindfolded with the hope that he won't be run over.

So we're working on a year's supply of food, putting in a couple of hours daily in the garden, feeding the critters, and even buying a few extra bullets for my little Mattel pop-gun. For a lot of would-be prepulators, that'll give them a sense of "being ready". But how can anyone -- such as a couple in their sixties and seventies, who'd never lived in a rural area in their lives -- manage to make a move to that kind of prepared/off-grid life not knowing the difference between a Bell jar and a bicycle-pump??

Friends-'n'- neighbors, that's how.

People in small towns or any rural environment seem to be caring about others and know that the rains or hail might come any time, a drought might ruin your crops, or Mother knows what else. This is why people come together in times of need, whether to work through a barn fire (or a barn-raising). Can you imagine what it'd be like if you were a n00b who had decided to build a remote homestead and "get ready" for whatever might come along -- not knowing doodly-squat about farming or raising critters?

Here's a fun scenario: Billy and Betty, fresh from Cincinnati, are getting ready for the evening in their new little bugout farm. (They keep to themselves and don't say much to the neighbors if they see them at the store, because you never can tell....)

Billy goes out to corral the one goat and her new kid, can't find them in the dark, trips over a root and breaks his ankle. He can't get up, and it starts to sleet. He should've worn a jacket, but figures he'll just lie there and rest for a minute or two before crawling back to the cabin. Meanwhile Betty, who's seven months along with their first, realizes that her water just broke.

Who ya gonna call? Ghostbusters ain't answering the phone tonight....

 

[viking]

When the church we used to attend made major changes, some friends said "now how are we going to get to a place of safety?" and it came to my mind to tell her, "The place of safety is where you are in Jesus.", if people are so afraid that they will loose their lives, they are not thinking on a spiritual level, if we need temporary protection, God will take care of us. On the other hand, it's certainly best to be as far away as possible from large "Blue" cities. Don't be like Lot's wife.

 

[Neb]

When the church we used to attend made major changes, some friends said "now how are we going to get to a place of safety?" and it came to my mind to tell her, "The place of safety is where you are in Jesus.", if people are so afraid that they will loose their lives, they are not thinking on a spiritual level, if we need temporary protection, God will take care of us. On the other hand, it's certainly best to be as far away as possible from large "Blue" cities. Don't be like Lot's wife.

Agreed!

Get xool with God and let him guide you.

Ben

 

[Neb]

Rather than trying to invent a new solution I find it useful to look at history and how similar problems had been addressed in the past.

Families or tribes cooperated for security and their needs. Then near by families formed communities.

" No man is an island."

Communities built resources like mills, wells, walls etc.

Nearby communities worked together exchanging goods and services. Trading anything larger than what can be carried in a cart was better transported via water ways.

Ben

 

[Sourdough]

Rather than trying to invent a new solution I find it useful to look at history and how similar problems had been addressed in the past.

Families or tribes cooperated for security and their needs. Then near by families formed communities.

" No man is an island."

Communities built resources like mills, wells, walls etc.

Nearby communities worked together exchanging goods and services. Trading anything larger than what can be carried in a cart was better transported via water ways.

Ben

Community's & Tribes

Mexico City 22.6 "MILLION" humans.

Los Angeles City 11.2 "Million humans.

Will that work today......?????????????

 

[elkhound]

island of siberia

 

[Neb]

Community Tribe

Mexico City 22.6 "MILLION" humans.

Los Angeles City 11.2 "Million humans.

Will that work today......?????????????

No not today.

But given the SHTF happens tomorrow give them 6 mo to a year after the survivors have reorganized maybe scout them out carefully.

Q for You

How many of 11.2M in LA are still alive in...

3 mo?

6 mo?

1 yr?

Ben

 

[Sourdough]

No not today.

But given the SHTF happens tomorrow give them 6 mo to a year after the survivors have reorganized maybe scout them out carefully.

Q for You

How many of 11.2M in LA are still alive in...

3 mo?

6 mo?

1 yr?

Ben

I have no idea. But that is why I moved to Alaska end of 1969. I have been to both of those cities for training. LA "SUCKS" but Mexico City is an off the chart hell-hole.

 

[Neb]

I have no idea. But that is why I moved to Alaska end of 1969. I have been to both of those cities for training. LA "SUCKS" but Mexico City is an off the chart hell-hole.

Yup.

Who can tell?

I would guess 11K including every man, woman and child. If they can feed that many I would be surprised.

Ben

 

[Hardcalibres]

No not today.

But given the SHTF happens tomorrow give them 6 mo to a year after the survivors have reorganized maybe scout them out carefully.

Q for You

How many of 11.2M in LA are still alive in...

3 mo?

6 mo?

1 yr?

Ben

It is reasonable to assume that those that survive after months of no food deliveries to any big city, will mostly be those that have adapted to a new food source......ie Cannibals.

There is no way I would be going in there for a look around.

 

[Old Whatshisname]

When the church we used to attend made major changes, some friends said "now how are we going to get to a place of safety?" and it came to my mind to tell her, "The place of safety is where you are in Jesus.", if people are so afraid that they will loose their lives, they are not thinking on a spiritual level, if we need temporary protection, God will take care of us. On the other hand, it's certainly best to be as far away as possible from large "Blue" cities. Don't be like Lot's wife.

What large U.S. cities aren't "Blue"?

 

[Neb]

What large U.S. cities aren't "Blue"?

I want to say out of the top 20
17 are Dem
2 Rep and
1 independent.

Ben

 

[montanabill]

the closest "city" to me has 35K people surrounded by a area with another 35K. If the trucks don't run it will be out of food in a few days. People won't suddenly convert to eating boiled wheat, cattails and trash fish like suckers. So I am not going to town for quite a while. Just had a east indian lady with a cute 6 year old begging for money in the parking lot of the wal mart.....there is a burger king right there and we offered to buy them food....nope they wanted cash.
Should have got a photo of the kid and the woman....but wait our government turns a blind eye to child trafficing.

 

[lonewolf]

I keep telling people over here that "prepping" that is amassing a stockpile of food is only delaying the inevitable WTSHTF if they have no way of replacing that food when all the stores are empty, either by growing it, foraging for it or some other means.

 

[Haertig]

I keep telling people over here that "prepping" that is amassing a stockpile of food is only delaying the inevitable WTSHTF if they have no way of replacing that food when all the stores are empty, either by growing it, foraging for it or some other means.

This is true if one's prepping goal is to live forever on their own after the SHTF. But if the goal is to prep to live through hard times until the world can return to semi-normal within a few months to a year, then pure stockpiling makes more sense. Different goals, different strategies.

 

[lonewolf]

This is true if one's prepping goal is to live forever on their own after the SHTF. But if the goal is to prep to live through hard times until the world can return to semi-normal within a few months to a year, then pure stockpiling makes more sense. Different goals, different strategies.

people seem to expect things to get back to normal within a relatively short time frame, but what if the new "normal" is nothing like the normal they knew before.
I dont expect things to get back to normal EVER. once the collapse happens it wont ever be the same again.

 

[Haertig]

people seem to expect things to get back to normal within a relatively short time frame, but what if the new "normal" is nothing like the normal they knew before.
I dont expect things to get back to normal EVER. once the collapse happens it wont ever be the same again.

It's not an expectation of things getting back to normal, it's a different outlook on the desirability of living in the aftermath when they don't. Those that want that life should certainly prep for that and give it their best shot. Those that don't, should enjoy their life now and not worry about what they'll be eating ten years after they've seen their last fellow human. Personally, I think it is futile to expect to live forever on your own after society collapses (and prep for that), but that's just my opinion. I could be wrong.

 

[lonewolf]

It's not an expectation of things getting back to normal, it's a different outlook on the desirability of living in the aftermath when they don't. Those that want that life should certainly prep for that and give it their best shot. Those that don't, should enjoy their life now and not worry about what they'll be eating ten years after they've seen their last fellow human. Personally, I think it is futile to expect to live forever on your own after society collapses (and prep for that), but that's just my opinion. I could be wrong.

thats because most people have been programmed to believe that they can only survive by the efforts of others.
I believe we can survive without others on our own and by our own efforts, I neither trust nor rely on others.
my name is lonewolf because that is the way I was brought up, an only child, and taught to live on my own and by my own knowledge.
most people havent got a cat in hell's chance of even surviving after societal collapse, if they cannot survive alone how can they hope to survive long enough to find other survivors? thats if there are any other survivors.

 

[Haertig]

Agreed. Some people are predisposed, trained, and want to be the last person on Earth. Others aren't trained for, and don't want to be that. It's just a difference in outlook. Neither outlook is right. Neither is wrong. People should prep for the outlook they agree with.