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I would agree with what others have said. I don't think I would fit in, especially if it was a large group.

Who decides what skills are useful, and what are not? Who decides who stays and who goes? If I had concerns about the "leadership" of the group I would leave. I don't suffer fools well.
 
Such a scenario as suggested in the OP will never exist. It is impossible for all the houses, buildings, machinery, tools, manufacturing, junk yards, highways, byways, oil wells, hydro electric dams, and all that exist today, to just suddenly disappear and leave humans without anything and dependency on a group to survive.

I might ask if in such a senecio, are the humans nude or do they still have the clothes on they were wearing at the time of this great event? If my closet full of high quality vintage and newer USA made jeans, tops, shoes, and boots is going to vaporize before my very eyes, then I must sleep with my clothes and boots on.

I am sure wishing I hadn't sold my homemade buckskins and boots on Ebay a few years ago. They would come in handy if such an event occurred and look impressive for my debut at Thunderdome.
 
Faez said:
are the humans nude or do they still have the clothes on they were wearing at the time of this great event?
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If you look at all the stuff I carry around with me in the pockets of my cargo pants (about the only thing I ever wear these days) - I'm fairly well equipped for at least the little day-to-day emergencies/inconveniences. That's kind of the point of me wearing cargo pants.
 
Like many others on here I grew up farming, and still do just on a much smaller scale. We did anything that needed doing. Best way to aquire any skill is by putting hands on it. It also requires the mindset to problem solve to find a solution. You just never know what is gonna be done next
 
I guess, as usual I am not communicating very well.

Say, post SHTF a group of 250 found themselves together. 245 are doctors, computer inventors, scientist, engineers, Tool & Die makers, etc. The point is 245 all have highest level skills. But the other 5 can't gather enough food, water, shelter to keep the whole group of 250 alive.

If the 5 unskilled walk away, what choices do the other 245 have.....?? My point is in the beginning what is needed is food, water, shelter, etc.

The 245 highly skilled will have no choice but to contribute at producing food, water, shelter, etc.

For the highest percentage of the group to survive for years. In the beginning everyone needs to do "What is Most Urgently Needed" or the entire group dies.
 
Sourdough said:
I guess, as usual I am not communicating very well.

Say, post SHTF a group of 250 found themselves together. 245 are doctors, computer inventors, scientist, engineers, Tool & Die makers, etc. The point is 245 all have highest level skills.
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Those people aren't really all that useful imo...

tbth most of those people are skilled at utilizing technology which stands on the scaffolding of about 100 years of precursory technology. If we were thrust into a survival situation where we were worried about basics like food and water the people with the "highest level skillsets" are the people who can produce those things.

Most (obviously not all) of those well paid, highly skilled types tend to be pretty soft to boot- and entitled. Plenty of the highest skilled folks wear dress shoes... not work boots. I think that matters alot.

For example- a more useful type would be a doctor. But say they are a specialist or they are separated from the infrastructure/tech/supplies that allows them to practice medicine effectively... what good are they really? I'm not saying they cannot be useful- but there's a big difference between an oncologist and an ER emergency physician in a SHTF situation.

In society, those folks may have the highest skill levels- but only because society is a system upheld by the cooperation of literally thousands if not millions of people in any given discipline. Drop things down to 250- and I'd bet money that most of those people would find without all the organizationally dependent technology they rely on they are only marginally more capable than the average joe and that they usefulness in many cases would be outstripped by the burden they pose to the group because of the soft/safe lifestyle they've lived for their entire lives.

I'm not saying that their knowledge couldn't be useful or adapted to the needs of the group- but in SHTF you need shelter, food, water and security- the vast majority of the types you listed- heck, the vast majority of humans alive are completely incapable of providing basic needs for themselves, meaning their specialized skills are of extremely limited value to the group.

Now. After a long term scenario has been ongoing perhaps on the scale of years and said group has been wildly successfully, I could see specialized roles like those you listed becoming valuable again... but for the most part when it comes to the recruitment segment- you're gonna want folks with low level skills that effectively provide the basics which right now are taken for granted.

I don't mean to be overly critical- but I've got to challenge the premise that were basing this value system on.
 
Personally I wouldn't want anything to do with a group that large with or without SHTF ! I'm more the 5-10 type at most and 99.99% of what I do I do alone so.......... In my entire life I've only had a handful of real friends. All that are still alive I can count on with my life and vice versa.
 
I'm more of a librarian, decades of stuff in my head, and vastly more in the books in my library, Nope, won't plant a field, but can give guidance on what, when, how to plant.

Useful?, I suppose we will see, someday.

Google will give you 1000000 answers, a librarian will give you the right one.
 
forcast said:
Only the people that are able to make modern grids ,power station, water turbines, nuclear energy, satellite communications ect work again will be of value .
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I am not objecting to what you say here, but it makes me wonder. Electric (power) is really low on my concern list & would fall even lower if "SHTF."
Haertig said:
If you look at all the stuff I carry around with me in the pockets of my cargo pants (about the only thing I ever wear these days) - I'm fairly well equipped for at least the little day-to-day emergencies/inconveniences. That's kind of the point of me wearing cargo pants.
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Warning - off topic: this brought to mind the mental pix of my son when he war 3-4 yrs old. He was getting ready for preschool and had cargo pants on. His pockets were all full. I asked him what he had in his pockets that he had to take with him. He had hotwheels, rocks, small toys, and assorted other needful items 😂
Sourdough said:
I guess, as usual I am not communicating very well.

Say, post SHTF a group of 250 found themselves together. 245 are doctors, computer inventors, scientist, engineers, Tool & Die makers, etc. The point is 245 all have highest level skills. But the other 5 can't gather enough food, water, shelter to keep the whole group of 250 alive.

If the 5 unskilled walk away, what choices do the other 245 have.....?? My point is in the beginning what is needed is food, water, shelter, etc.

The 245 highly skilled will have no choice but to contribute at producing food, water, shelter, etc.

For the highest percentage of the group to survive for years. In the beginning everyone needs to do "What is Most Urgently Needed" or the entire group dies.
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Roles - if we look back say 200+ years, families worked together. This held true to some extent until the 60s when the idea of rolls was essentially abolished from our (USA) society. Roles work! Ask H Ford.
 
I'm a groupie of sorts, but a smaller than 250 groupie. We have a small community on our "block". It's all farms, so it's a big block. Not a problem to get help from one of these farms, they'll be right over in a minute. Everyone does have a specialty of sorts I guess, I would call one over the other depending on what I need help with. If it's something I'm looking for, like an off grid kitchen stove, when ours just bit the dust...I asked a neighbor, he told me who to call, and a tractor pulled up with a trailer carrying our new stove two days later. Installed, old one taken away, and I paid cash. Extra corn, green beans, tomatoes, potatoes....those all get passed around here. And that's just our farm block. So we didn't pick each other, we just exist in our area, but would help each other in a minute for sure. I tend to get called for medical stuff, turkey or chicken stuff, and I'm no expert for sure, but I do allright. Everyone has their own foodstuff, animals, farm equipment stuff. One neighbor always just leaves the keys in his skid loader for any of us. I have extra barns and outbuildings that are used by others during horrendous weather, and have more pasture than others on our "block". We give and we get and it works out pretty well.
 
I am worthless and more !!

ya know..theres jobs that many older folks can do..why?..because they have patience and persistence at it...they/we/me might not be running fast or walk far or wide range of things but the day to day drudgery they can get it done where other younger folks get bored,impatient etc. with it. Put my rest chair out by firewood i will bust awhile..rest awhile...sledge hammer tough rounds etc.

they cant vote me off the island because i wont be a part or center core of their group...i be a side cog with limited engagement. i dont take orders well at all...especially when it goes against the grain of my core values and more.

best thing i got is farming skills from gardening to animal husbandry and more and my knowledge of where stuff is from the wilds to in 'town'.
 
The important skills will be determined by the current need of society or the group. Cavemen would not have any need for a physicist but would love the flint knapper. My current skills would be valuable during a normal time frame but would be next to worthless during the beginning of a major SHTF event. Only my firearm related experience or my sharpening experience would be of value. My electrical, welding, plumbing or construction related skills would be if minor importance. The needs of any group will be determined by the current phase of the SHTF they are in. The beginning, first phase, food production and security are the top requirements. Only during the later phases, the rebuilding, fourth phase, will the higher education / skilled tradesmen be important. Medical / herbalist will become more essential during the collective groups / pre-barter phase.

SHTF Phase 1, Survival, food, water, shelter and protection. Those will be the needed skills.

SHTF Phase 2, Grouping / pre-barter Phase. Some specialized skills now wanted. Nurses, Doctors, Herbalist, Veterinarians, Leather workers, metal workers, etc.

SHTF Phase 3, This is the barter phase and discovery phase. Limited travel will begin and limited governance will also begin.

SHTF Phase 4, This is the long drawn out rebuilding phase. Just about every skill and knowledge base will become important.

JM2C
 
Plainflatlander said:
I respectfully disagree. I believe that they could overpower us. Dont underestimate the power of fear and desperation.
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Sure they could, but then they would be missing someone who knows stuff. All they would have then are their dead smart phones, non-working video games, bitcoins, and memories of Taylor Swift.
 
TMT Tactical said:
The important skills will be determined by the current need of society or the group. Cavemen would not have any need for a physicist but would love the flint knapper. My current skills would be valuable during a normal time frame but would be next to worthless during the beginning of a major SHTF event. Only my firearm related experience or my sharpening experience would be of value. My electrical, welding, plumbing or construction related skills would be if minor importance. The needs of any group will be determined by the current phase of the SHTF they are in. The beginning, first phase, food production and security are the top requirements. Only during the later phases, the rebuilding, fourth phase, will the higher education / skilled tradesmen be important. Medical / herbalist will become more essential during the collective groups / pre-barter phase.

SHTF Phase 1, Survival, food, water, shelter and protection. Those will be the needed skills.

SHTF Phase 2, Grouping / pre-barter Phase. Some specialized skills now wanted. Nurses, Doctors, Herbalist, Veterinarians, Leather workers, metal workers, etc.

SHTF Phase 3, This is the barter phase and discovery phase. Limited travel will begin and limited governance will also begin.

SHTF Phase 4, This is the long drawn out rebuilding phase. Just about every skill and knowledge base will become important.

JM2C
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Agreed.

......but another thing to mention is that, in some places, those phases may take a lot longer to play out than others.........and there is no guarantee that later phases will be reached......well perhaps not in our lifetimes.

After Rome collapsed, Phase 4 took hundreds of years.

After a severe crisis, some groups may assess that the crisis was caused by the fundamentals of what we live in now - and they may not want that back.



Getting back to the OPs question, much of the answer comes down to what and who is NORMAL.

In statistics and science, the normal distribution curve is ubiquitous.......it fits many analyses.

1708038011178.png


When you have enough people (like 250 of them), they will start to fit the curve well. But (and this is a big but), they will have settled into their place on the curve in the context of NORMAL conditions, NORMAL needs and NORMAL priorities.

When you dramatically change the conditions and needs, almost everyone will slide down the curve to the left.........reflecting how poorly suited they are (at least at first and perhaps permanently) to the very changed conditions and needs. Those who were average (or even high) performers in a NORMAL world will be Non-performers in a very ABNORMAL world.

The people who won't slide down the curve to the left will be people who were/are (and arguably have always been) ABNORMAL (and in the specific context of the new conditions and needs). They will end up on the right of the curve.

Some people will gradually adjust to the new conditions and will adapt to fulfill the needs of those conditions.

The ones that can't or won't, will be useless and will perish (unless someone useful/of high performance decides to save them).

The tough thing about a randomly selected survival group of substantial size, is that they will be overwhelmingly populated by non-performers that either have always been like that or just joined that group due to the very changed conditions and needs. The second subgroup will be the most difficult to deal with because they will be unaccustomed to being and being treated like non-performers. That will make them quite dangerous.
 
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I am reminded of the video game 'Frostpunk'

Not getting into details too much, the game starts out with a small group of 'Workers' 'Engineers' and 'Children' in a harsh arctic environment that progressively grows colder.

You start out with no shelter, and a couple days of food. There is a central Generator that provides heat around it and can power up and heat other facilities that you can choose to build.

Workers can run lumber mills, go hunting for food and cook food.

Engineers can harvest existing resources, provide medical care, or cook food and most importantly, are the only ones that can invent new technology.

Children can harvest, or cook but can't do other jobs and are likely to become sick or injured while working.

Soon, other survivors arrive, and you can choose to accept them or not. Each survivor is more potential work, but also needs housing, and food, and often arrive sick. Sick people can do no work, but eat the same amount of food until they are healed, which requires one engineer per person per day.

Early in the game, the engineers are somewhat of a liability as they eat as much as a worker, but can only do a few jobs. The children are even worse.

And you can let them die, or refuse to take in more. You can choose to only accept workers, which gives you immediate bonuses production ability.

There is also a 'hope' and a 'discontent' meter, if hope falls to 0 or discontent hits 100% you are ousted or executed as leader, and the worse things get, the less effect your decisions have as people are less responsive. For instance, if you force the children to work dangerous jobs hope falls, and falls even faster when they die from accidents, even if they are making enough food to keep everyone alive you can still lose the game from sheer misery.

However, if you organize your colony so well that you can keep all the engineers alive, even as dead weight, they become invaluable, as over time they create labor saving advancements that allow you to do more with fewer workers. These advancements are the only way you ever get out of a hand to mouth survivor state, and into a city building advancement state.

They are also how you survive crisis where sheer work isn't useful but technology is, for instance there are storms where its too cold to hunt or grow food but advancements in food processing efficency etc make a huge difference in how long your stores last, or medical disasters where you have a large number of sick workers at one time.

What it boils down to, is that is that although the most valuable people short term are workers, engineer type people are ultimately the only way to survive, but if you can't meet the basic requirements of food and shelter immediately that becomes moot, and neither matter, if you can't keep the trust of the people.
 
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Hardcalibres said:
The people who won't slide down the curve to the left will be people who were/are (and arguably have always been) ABNORMAL (and in the specific context of the new conditions and needs). They will end up on the right of the curve.
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As SM Stirling says in 'Dies the Fire':

"When the going gets weird, the weird get going".

Of course this book was written in the late 90s....before we met Gen Z.
 
Sourdough said:
Not any of your possessions. Just you standing there, what exactly do you offer a group post SHTF.....??? Assume there is only humans, no supplies or tools available.

If any tools are found, they will be basic dirt related tools (shovel, pick, etc.)

Why would you NOT be culled in the first culling of humans from the group who expected food, water, shelter, other ultra basic genuine survival needs to be available to them, for no reason other than you are a breathing human.
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It would be dangerous to assume that I'll let you inside our perimeter.
Any "culling" that needs to be done would occur outside our wire.

When I say "our" that is my wife and I.
 
rice paddy daddy said:
It would be dangerous to assume that I'll let you inside our perimeter.
Any "culling" that needs to be done would occur outside our wire.

When I say "our" that is my wife and I.
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Fire considers "wire" a non-barrier. Fire laughs its ass off at wire. When confronted with fire strategically placed, everything shifts to the advantage of the fire starter.

Being aware of this truth/reality massively pisses me off. Even with thermal rifle optics, the fire starter wins.

YES, I fully understand what you mean by inside/outside the wire.
 
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Sourdough said:
Fire considers "wire" a non-barrier. Fire laughs its ass off at wire. When confronted with fire strategically placed, everything shifts to the advantage of the fire starter.
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Which is why I've always consider fire prepping incredibly important. Regardless of 'strategy' when things go sidewise, anything that can burn, does.
 
Sourdough said:
Fire considers "wire" a non-barrier. Fire laughs its ass off at wire. When confronted with fire strategically placed, everything shifts to the advantage of the fire starter.

Being aware of this truth/reality massively pisses me off. Even with thermal rifle optics, the fire starter wins.

YES, I fully understand what you mean by inside/outside the wire.
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fire,water,wind,snow and quaking over rides...EVERYTHING....for sure
 
Aerindel said:
Which is why I've always consider fire prepping incredibly important. Regardless of 'strategy' when things go sidewise, anything that can burn, does.
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Preppers obsess about their firearms and their ammo volume, maybe their thermal rifle optics.

To quote Sam Colt: God made man, Colt made men "equal". Problem is fire is a horrific monster. It exterminates man & his firearm.

Fire will be (It is) super-SUPER SHTF.
 
Aerindel said:
Which is why I've always consider fire prepping incredibly important. Regardless of 'strategy' when things go sidewise, anything that can burn, does.
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theres an old homestead here has its own 'firehouse' out back . its super cool..original owners put in a huge reservoir up on ridge and piped water to this building. it has hydrant inside with multiple reels of hose and piles of extra hose in floor to reach all buildings...barn,house,coops and more. all gravity operated.
 
Sourdough said:
Preppers obsess about their firearms and their ammo volume, maybe their thermal rifle optics.

To quote Sam Colt: God made man, Colt made men "equal". Problem is fire is a horrific monster. It exterminates man & his firearm.

Fire will be (It is) super-SUPER SHTF.
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Can't shoot fire.

Although part of my Defcon system for fire, is strapping on a gun.

Unfortunately, there is an unbelievable amount of arson and corruption in fire fighting.

I was actually on this fire, all night. It was paged out as the highest level of call, a state wide emergency for all available responders.

Turns out it was started BY THE MAN WHO PAGED IT OUT.

https://www.montanarightnow.com/kal...CVt41JbgPFZerQzpZkZDESKL3NjXkaszi27LX1THjzUAU
 
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