Shortages / Price Increases You Expect To See

[Katie Müller]

I know there's a thread like this about shortages you're seeing; but I want to get ahead of the game and see what I can do before some of these products are in short supply. So I figured I'd just make a nice clean thread for this.

My family and I are forward-thinkers; we look at trends, watch economic data to see what products are going to be impacted the most with shortages or price increases. Elkhound's thread regarding the new cold war being here and supply chains are going to be hardest hit, made me sit back down and ponder through my wish-lists and to-buy lists. What items do you expect to see in short supply soon or whose prices will increase? If China cuts off trade with us, we could summarize a list with everything. And with rising gas prices that's going to reflect on the grocery bill in general, but! Instead of a generalization, I wanted to look at things a little more detailed.

So from news articles; radio shows; Youtubers; etc what do you foresee being in short supply and or expensive in the near future? Things haven't inflated out of hand too terribly yet where I am (minus the gasoline). My list is short so far, but I'll add to it as I can think of more. If you have anything to add, I'd love to know what you foresee being in short supply; high demand; increasing price.

- Gasoline; Diesel and Kerosene Containers (As people try to stock up on the rising cost of fuel)
- Rubber Boots
- Edible Oils
- Coffee
- Semi-conductors (Cars; electronics etc.)
- Vodka
- Wheat and cereals (If the MENA region is hit with shortages due to Ukraine not exporting, I could see the US exporting our additional reserves to them)
- WD40 / WD30
- Chicken and Turkey - Mentioned by Ladycat
- Animal Food (due to poultry shortages)
- Animal Feed (Ukraine crisis)
- Pasta - Mentioned by Ladycat
- Garden Seeds
- Canning Lids, Ball & Tattler Reuseable
- Pharmaceuticals: Vitamins; OTC medicine; cat, dog, farm animal immunizations

https://www.zerohedge.com/commoditi...ood-prices-could-be-imminent-edible-oil-soarshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...fee-crop-keeps-shrinking-leading-to-shortageshttps://www.zerohedge.com/markets/l...threatens-make-global-semi-shortage-far-worsehttps://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/breadbasket-world-choked-russian-invasion-wheat-prices-soarhttps://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ou...e-information/avian/avian-influenza/2022-hpaihttps://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...nt-xi-will-face-serious-consequences-if-china

 

[Katie Müller]

Here's a list of items made from petroleum; these will all go up in price. I'll pull some of the more pertinent ones out of the list

Solvents - Diesel - Motor Oil - Bearing Grease - Ink
Floor Wax - Ballpoint Pens - Insecticides - Bicycle Tires / Tires
Nail Polish - Fishing lures - Caulking - Petroleum Jelly
Transparent Tape - Faucet Washers - Antiseptics - Clothesline
Curtains - Food Preservatives - Soap - Vitamin Capsules
Antihistamines - Shoes - Deodorant - Rubbing Alcohol
Electrician's Tape - Epoxy Paint - Mops - Insect Repellent
Yarn - Fertilizers - Roofing - Toilet Seats - Fishing Rods
Denture Adhesive - Nylon Rope - Candles - Trash Bags
House Paint - Water Pipes - Hand Lotion - Shampoo
Paint Rollers - Shower Curtains - Tents - Pillows
Aspirin - Safety Glasses - Antifreeze - Eyeglasses
Toothbrushes - Paint Brushes - Detergents - Sun Glasses Tents
Cameras - Bandages - Fan Belts - Shaving Cream - Ammonia
Toothpaste - Fishing lures - Panty Hose

https://whgbetc.com/petro-products.pdf

 

[LadyLocust]

Here's a list of items made from petroleum; these will all go up in price.

https://whgbetc.com/petro-products.pdf

I can shorten the list: plastics and synthetic materials. If you look around in your local "mart" and visually remove all plastic, the store would be virtually empty.

 

[LadyLocust]

I typically order in bulk from Azure Standard. I ran across some old lists while cleaning off my desk so took the opportunity to compare prices. The only thing that is substantially higher is dairy products. (So far at least - no telling what is yet to come.)

 

[Katie Müller]

I can shorten the list: plastics and synthetic materials. If you look around in your local "mart" and visually remove all plastic, the store would be virtually empty.

Packaging is the kicker, because that's mostly plastic, but it's easy to overlook items in the store when it's not on my list of things to-buy. Like I sort of forget that laundry detergent will end up being in short supply because it's in plastic containers, and even if you switch to powder or making your own, so will everyone else. So things I expect to see in short supply are:

Powdered Detergent
Borax
Washing Soda
Fels Naptha / Zote / Bar Soap / Soap Flakes

I forgot that shower curtains are made from petroleum and that's been on my, I should get that eventually list, but I'm just going to take the leap and buy them now. And we need a new toilet seat. Lol. So tomorrow we're going to get that. And I told my dad to get himself extra sneakers because he's been putting it off.

 

[Sourdough]

I'd love to know what you foresee being in short supply; high demand; increasing price.

The whole "Prepping" movement is deeply (likely fatally) Flawed. Your odds of survival suck, if you are using current "Flawed Internet Prepping Theory".

You and others are reading this, and thinking, "Does he have any valid foundation for making such an outlandish claim".

 

[Peanut]

Bouncing Bet aka Soapwort aka Saponaria officinalis L. - You can grow your own soap. Seeds available online and garden centers, a very common plant.

It was the plant used as soap as far back as the middle ages in Europe. Of course settlers brought it with them. I see it growing wild on the sides of the road occasionally. Also have it growing in my yard.

Here it is growing wild under a powerline by a small road.

 

[Mountain trapper]

I see prices for everything increasing. Every product made uses oil/gas in the manufacturing, processing, shipping, growing, slaughtering, etc. We're just now starting to see prices increasing and shortages. This summer things will be much worse. These man made shortages are all by design. Thanks Biden voters.

 

[SLADE]

We don't need half the junk we think we need.
It's more of a want than a need.

 

[Katie Müller]

@Sourdough perhaps for some. But I already know my odds of survival are 100%. You're own pessimism is more likely to kill you than anything else.

@Peanut I bought both plants from my brother's work last year and the seeds I experimented with making my own soap last year. It turned out really well.

 

[Sourdough]

You're own pessimism is more likely to kill you than anything else.

Quite the contrary. For "only one thing" I am not the slightest pessimistic, opposite in fact. It is nearly everyone else's survival for which I am pessimistic.

 

[Katie Müller]

Quite the contrary. For "only one thing" I am not the slightest pessimistic, opposite in fact. It is nearly everyone else's survival for which I am pessimistic.

Well I'm not a "Pinterest prepper", so you don't have to be pessimistic about me. Both of my grandfathers warned these days were coming and to never lose touch with the old ways. We haven't.

 

[Cascadian]

I don't concern myself with other people's survival. I have been filling holes in what I have on hand here and there. If I need it I will be getting it.

 

[Katie Müller]

Something else on my list that I've been putting off is: WD40 & WD30, that's all going to go up. For me it's the last minute 'preps', or things I haven't thought off. Things I wanted and know I'll never get again; but needs come before wants.

 

[ladycat]

Chicken and turkey due to outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI).

This is one of the poultry diseases that causes state officials to start killing off flocks, and for states to go into quarantine (no poultry movement into or out of the state).

HPAI has been identified in commercial poultry operations in several states now, as well as Canada. It can be assumed those flocks were destroyed, since that's what they always do with infected flocks.

If you don't have your own crop of broilers and turkeys to slaughter, you might want to stock up on frozen and canned poultry.

They might get it all under control and the whole thing will come to nothing. But who wants to chance it? Besides, you'll beat inflation by stocking up extra.

 

[Katie Müller]

@ladycat Last week our store has chicken drumsticks .79 cents / pound and boneless skinless chicken $1.79 / pound. I used my money, money from my dad and money from my sister to get as much as I could but I for sure want to buy more.

I want to get more cat food too; dry and wet. Chicken flavors will be hit with increasing chicken costs, and my cat prefers poultry flavors over any other. Thankfully he does eat the chicken drumsticks. LOL I've actually been feeding him the chicken legs for ten years now or so. He doesn't get sick of them. So the chicken drumsticks conveniently work as human food and cat food. In fact, I think the drumsticks are cheaper than the cans of cat food now!

 

[lilmissy]

Bouncing Bet aka Soapwort aka Saponaria officinalis L. - You can grow your own soap. Seeds available online and garden centers, a very common plant.

It was the plant used as soap as far back as the middle ages in Europe. Of course settlers brought it with them. I see it growing wild on the sides of the road occasionally. Also have it growing in my yard.

Here it is growing wild under a powerline by a small road.

View attachment 81538

Do you pick and use this? Is it invasive?

 

[ClemKadiddlehopper]

Bird flu comes and goes on a regular basis. This is nothing new under the sun.

 

[Katie Müller]

Do you pick and use this? Is it invasive?

It don't think it's invasive like, say, ragweed, but it can spread out nicely. You can use pretty much all the parts. I believe the root contains more of the saponins than the stems, leaves and flowers. I boiled the stems, leaves and flowers. When I poured off the water and shook the jar it got bubbly and lathery in the jar. And I discarded the plant.

I learned about it through this video

ETA: Oh, but you want to make it up as you need it. I kept it a little longer than I should have and the tiny flower parts that were in my detergent mix started to rot and it got stinky. So you'll have to dehydrate it for long-term use.

 

[ladycat]

Bird flu comes and goes on a regular basis. This is nothing new under the sun.

That's why I said it may come to nothing.

But I remember when it hit in the late 70's and got out of control, it devastated the poultry market. And since the poultry market is already shaky right now, I'd as soon be prepared "just in case".

 

[Weedygarden]

The whole "Prepping" movement is deeply (likely fatally) Flawed. Your odds of survival suck, if you are using current "Flawed Internet Prepping Theory".

You and others are reading this, and thinking, "Does he have any valid foundation for making such an outlandish claim".

This is not the first time I have seen you say similar things. And I wonder what good it does anyone? Should we just throw in the towel and quit, since only Sourdough has it figured out?
I think we all are doing the best we can with what we've got, even the people who are doing nothing to prepare. I think that the more we can discuss preparedness, the better we are going to be. Does it mean there won't be massive failures? Nope. But this gives us focus, puts us in a better place than doing nothing, and could make the difference for many.

 

[Sourdough]

since only Sourdough has it figured out?

Flawed assumption........I never ever asserted that. In fact, that is far from truth.

 

[Sourdough]

And I wonder what good it does anyone?

If you are going down a road, and you are not sure it is the correct road, and up ahead you see someone getting mail out of a mailbox next to an apparent driveway. As you slow down the person is now walking up the driveway, thumbing through the mail, as they walk. You stop and say, "Excuse me, will this road take me where I want to go". They study you, and say, "No, this road will not take you there".
QUESTION: Does that information help or hurt your goal.

 

[Katie Müller]

If you are going down a road, and you are not sure it is the correct road, and up ahead you see someone getting mail out of a mailbox next to an apparent driveway. As you slow down the person is now walking up the driveway, thumbing through the mail, as they walk. You stop and say, "Excuse me, will this road take me where I want to go". They study you, and say, "No, this road will not take you there".
QUESTION: Does that information help or hurt your goal.

Lol. That made absolutely no sense to me.

Telling someone that 'Your odds of survival suck', is cruel and unwarranted, especially since you don't know me or how I live. In fact, you're in a way, wishing ill-will on another person. Why not give useful information--which is what I intended this thread to be for--than make generalized assumptions about someone's position.

An itemized list of needs is a better way to figure out where you're at, what you might need, what you could have forgotten about than just saying 'everything is going up in price; everything will be in short supply; and you're all going to die'.

 

[Katie Müller]

For the Chickens

Peeps
Bedding
Cracked Corn
Laying Mash

https://www.thepoultrysite.com/news/2021/12/kentucky-hatchery-hit-by-tornadohttps://www.farmprogress.com/commentary/corn-supply-and-demand-2022

 

[Sourdough]

In fact, you're in a way, wishing ill-will on another person. Why not give useful information

I wish "zero" ill-will on anyone on this forum. And I gave useful information. "You" have "Free Will" to choose. You have clearly chosen.

 

[ladycat]

I forgot to mention pasta. If you can get hold of any.
Canada is the world's largest exporter of durum wheat, about 2/3 of the supply for the whole world. Durum wheat is what is used for making pasta.
Canada lost a big portion of their crop due to a severe drought and unprecedented heat.
So until they get a good harvest, we'll continue to see a shortage.
Fortunately, I think I have plenty to last for a good long while.

 

[Peanut]

Do you pick and use this? Is it invasive?

Here's a thread with links, hopefully you'll find something useful.

Soap from Plants

 

[backlash]

Everything made in America is going to cost more.
Everything NOT made in America is going to cost a lot more and be hard to impossible to find.
Hard times they are a coming.

 

[Neb]

Lol. That made absolutely no sense to me.

Telling someone that 'Your odds of survival suck', is cruel and unwarranted, especially since you don't know me or how I live. In fact, you're in a way, wishing ill-will on another person. Why not give useful information--which is what I intended this thread to be for--than make generalized assumptions about someone's position.

An itemized list of needs is a better way to figure out where you're at, what you might need, what you could have forgotten about than just saying 'everything is going up in price; everything will be in short supply; and you're all going to die'.

Careful @Katie Müller .

Phrases that assert truths about others can ignite flame wars... Not good.

My I suggest...

"I feel .."

No way for others argue what we feel.

OR

Ask an open question...

"Are there other options?"

Hang in there young lady.

Just my 2 cents

Ben